An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Let your feet do the walking: constraints on the stability of bipedal coordination

In this paper we consider whether the behaviour of the neural circuitry that controls lower limb movements in humans is shaped primarily by the spatiotemporal characteristics of bipedal gait patterns, or by selective pressures that are sensitive to considerations of balance and energetics. During the course of normal locomotion, the full dynamics of the neural circuitry are masked by the inertial properties of the limbs. In the present study, participants executed bipedal movements in conditions in which their feet were either unloaded or subject to additional inertial loads. Two patterns of rhythmic coordination were examined. In the in-phase mode, participants were required to flex their ankles and extend their ankles in synchrony. In the out-of-phase mode, the participants flexed one ankle while extending the other and vice versa. The frequency of movement was increased systematically throughout each experimental trial. All participants were able to maintain both the in-phase and the out-of-phase mode of coordination, to the point at which they could no longer increase their frequency of movement. Transitions between the two modes were not observed, and the stability of the out-of-phase and in-phase modes of coordination was equivalent at all movement frequencies. These findings indicate that, in humans, the behaviour of the neural circuitry underlying coordinated movements of the lower limbs is not constrained strongly by the spatiotemporal symmetries of bipedal gait patterns.

Ethanol-related adaptive changes and physical dependence in rats after exposure to ethanol

Adaptive changes that occur after chronic exposure to ethanol are an important component in the development of physical dependence. We have focused our research on ethanol-induced changes in the expression of several genes that may be important in adaptation. In this article, we describe adaptive changes at the level of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor, in the protein expression and activity of the Egr transcription factors, and in the expression of a novel gene of unknown function. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of time delays in adaptive phase measurements

It is not possible to make measurements of the phase of an optical mode using linear optics without introducing an extra phase uncertainty. This extra phase variance is quite large for heterodyne measurements, however it is possible to reduce it to the theoretical limit of log (n) over bar (4 (n) over bar (2)) using adaptive measurements. These measurements are quite sensitive to experimental inaccuracies, especially time delays and inefficient detectors. Here it is shown that the minimum introduced phase variance when there is a time delay of tau is tau/(8 (n) over bar). This result is verified numerically, showing that the phase variance introduced approaches this limit for most of the adaptive schemes using the best final phase estimate. The main exception is the adaptive mark II scheme with simplified feedback, which is extremely sensitive to time delays. The extra phase variance due to time delays is considered for the mark I case with simplified feedback, verifying the tau /2 result obtained by Wiseman and Killip both by a more rigorous analytic technique and numerically.

Adaptive multiscale principal components analysis for online monitoring of wastewater treatment

Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

Physiological and symptomatic responses to cycling and walking in intermittent claudication

To shed light on the potential efficacy of cycling as a resting modality in the treatment of intermittent claudication (IC), this study compared physiological and symptomatic responses to graded walking and cycling tests in claudicants. Sixteen subjects with peripheral arterial disease (resting ankle:brachial index (ABI) < 0.9) and IC completed a maximal graded treadmill walking (T) and cycle (C) Lest after three familiarization tests on each mode. During cacti test, symptoms, oxygen uptake (VO2), minute ventilation (V-E), (respiratory exchange ratio) (RER) and heart rate (HR) were measured, and for 10 min after each Lest the brachial and ankle systolic pressures were recorded, All but One subject experienced calf pain as the primary limiting symptom during T whereas the symptoms were more varied during C and included thigh pain, calf pain and dyspnoea, Although maximal exercise time was significantly longer on C than T (690 +/- 67 vs, 495 +/- 57 s), peak VO2, peak, V-E and peak heart rate during C and T were not different; whereas peak RER was higher during C. These responses during C and T were also positively 1, (P < 0.05) with each other, with the exception of RER. The postexercise systolic pressures were also not different between C and T. However, the peak decline ill ankle pressures from resting values after C and T were not correlated with each other. Thew data demonstrate that cycling and walking induce a similar level of metabolic and cardiovascular strain, but that the primary limiting symptoms and haemodynamic response in an individual's extremity, measured after exercise, can differ substantially between these two modes.

Skeletal muscle mitochondrial ATP production rate and walking performance in peripheral arterial disease

This study tested the hypotheses that skeletal muscle mitochondrial ATP production rate (MAPR) is impaired in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and that it relates positively to their walking performances. Seven untrained patients, eight exercise-trained patients and 11 healthy controls completed a maximal walking test and had muscle sampled from the gastrocnemius medialis muscle. Muscle was analysed for its MAPR in the presence of pyruvate, palmitoyl-L-carnitine or both, as well as citrate synthase (CS) activity. MAPRs were not different between untrained PAD and controls. In contrast, MAPRs (pyruvate) were significantly higher in trained PAD vs. controls. MAPR (pyruvate combinations) was also significantly higher in trained than untrained PAD muscle. MAPR and CS activity were highly correlated with walking performance in patients, but not in controls. These data do not support the hypothesis that isolated mitochondria are functionally impaired in PAD and demonstrate that the muscle mitochondrial capacity to oxidize carbohydrate is positively related to walking performance in these patients.

The development and psychometric properties of a measure of social and adaptive functioning for children and adolescents

Developed, piloted, and examined the psychometric properties of the Child and Adolescent Social and Adaptive Functioning Scale (CASAFS), a self-report measure designed to examine the social functioning of young people in the areas of school performance, peer relationships, family relationships, and home duties/self-care. The findings of confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis support a 4-factor solution consistent with the hypothesized domains. Fit indexes suggested that the 4-correlated factor model represented a satisfactory solution for the data, with the covariation between factors being satisfactorily explained by a single, higher order factor reflecting social and adaptive functioning in general. The internal consistency and 12-month test-retest reliability of the total scale was acceptable. A significant, negative correlation was found between the CASAFS and a measure of depressive symptoms, showing that high levels of social functioning are associated with low levels of depression. Significant differences in CASAFS total and subscale scores were found between clinically depressed adolescents and a matched sample of nonclinical controls. Adolescents who reported elevated but subclinical levels of depression also reported lower levels of social functioning in comparison to nonclinical controls.

Was there a second adaptive radiation of giant tortoises in the Indian Ocean? Using mitochondrial DNA to investigate speciation and biogeography of Aldabrachelys (Reptilia, Testudinidae)

A radiation of five species of giant tortoises (Cylindraspis ) existed in the southwest Indian Ocean, on the Mascarene islands, and another (of Aldabrachelys ) has been postulated on small islands north of Madagascar, from where at least eight nominal species have been named and up to five have been recently recognized. Of 37 specimens of Madagascan and small-island Aldabrachelys investigated by us, 23 yielded significant portions of a 428-base-pair (bp) fragment of mitochondrial (cytochrome b and tRNA-Glu), including type material of seven nominal species (A. arnoldi, A. dussumieri, A. hololissa, A. daudinii, A. sumierei, A. ponderosa and A. gouffei ). These and nearly all the remaining specimens, including 15 additional captive individuals sequenced previously, show little variation. Thirty-three exhibit no differences and the remainder diverge by only 1-4 bp (0.23-0.93%). This contrasts with more widely accepted tortoise species which show much greater inter- and intraspecific differences. The non-Madagascan material examined may therefore only represent a single species and all specimens may come from Aldabra where the common haplotype is known to occur. The present study provides no evidence against the Madagascan origin for Aldabra tortoises suggested by a previous molecular phylogenetic analysis, the direction of marine currents and phylogeography of other reptiles in the area. Ancient mitochondrial DNA from the extinct subfossil A. grandidieri of Madagascar differs at 25 sites (5.8%) from all other Aldabrachelys samples examined here.