Recurrence interval statistics of cellular automaton seismicity models

The recurrence interval statistics for regional seismicity follows a universal distribution function, independent of the tectonic setting or average rate of activity (Corral, 2004). The universal function is a modified gamma distribution with power-law scaling of recurrence intervals shorter than the average rate of activity and exponential decay for larger intervals. We employ the method of Corral (2004) to examine the recurrence statistics of a range of cellular automaton earthquake models. The majority of models has an exponential distribution of recurrence intervals, the same as that of a Poisson process. One model, the Olami-Feder-Christensen automaton, has recurrence statistics consistent with regional seismicity for a certain range of the conservation parameter of that model. For conservation parameters in this range, the event size statistics are also consistent with regional seismicity. Models whose dynamics are dominated by characteristic earthquakes do not appear to display universality of recurrence statistics.

Water, Communities and Mineral Resource Development: Understanding the Risks and Opportunities

Issues around water – its quality, use, availability and environmental value – can be a major point of tension between mineral projects and local communities. Failure to manage these issues appropriately can jeopardise the obtaining of regulatory approvals for new projects and place at risk the ‘social licence to operate’ of existing operations. Conversely, there may also be significant opportunities for companies to engage constructively with communities over water issues and to make a positive contribution to the sustainable development of these communities. Using case studies, this paper will explore the various types of social risks and opportunities associated with water and mineral resource development and identify key learnings relating to the management of these issues.