Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Partial automation of database processing of simulation outputs from L-systems models of plant morphogenesis

Models of plant architecture allow us to explore how genotype environment interactions effect the development of plant phenotypes. Such models generate masses of data organised in complex hierarchies. This paper presents a generic system for creating and automatically populating a relational database from data generated by the widely used L-system approach to modelling plant morphogenesis. Techniques from compiler technology are applied to generate attributes (new fields) in the database, to simplify query development for the recursively-structured branching relationship. Use of biological terminology in an interactive query builder contributes towards making the system biologist-friendly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the learning potential of an artificial life simulation

CULTURE is an Artificial Life simulation that aims to provide primary school children with opportunities to become actively engaged in the high-order thinking processes of problem solving and critical thinking. A preliminary evaluation of CULTURE has found that it offers the freedom for children to take part in process-oriented learning experiences. Through providing children with opportunities to make inferences, validate results, explain discoveries and analyse situations, CULTURE encourages the development of high-order thinking skills. The evaluation found that CULTURE allows users to autonomously explore the important scientific concepts of life and living, and energy and change within a software environment that children find enjoyable and easy to use.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Electromagnetic modeling of conformal wideband and multi-band patch antennas by bridging a solid-object modeler with MoM software

The advantages of antennas that can resemble the shape of the body to which they are attached are obvious. However, electromagnetic modeling of such unusually shaped antennas can be difficult. In this paper, the commercially available software SolidWorks(TM) is used for accurately drawing complex shapes in conjunction with the electromagnetic software FEKO(TM) to model the EM behavior of conformal antennas. The application of SolidWorks and custom-written software allows all the required information that forms the analyzed structure to be automatically inserted into FEKO, and gives the user complete control over the antenna being modeled. This approach is illustrated by a number of simulation examples of single, wideband, multi-band planar and curved patch antennas.

Numerical simulation of stochastic ordinary differential equations in biomathematical modelling

In this work we discuss the effects of white and coloured noise perturbations on the parameters of a mathematical model of bacteriophage infection introduced by Beretta and Kuang in [Math. Biosc. 149 (1998) 57]. We numerically simulate the strong solutions of the resulting systems of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SDEs), with respect to the global error, by means of numerical methods of both Euler-Taylor expansion and stochastic Runge-Kutta type. (C) 2003 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laboratory-based simulation of freezing profiles of beef trim for Escherichia coli O157 survival determinations

This study was undertaken to develop a simple laboratory-based method for simulating the freezing profiles of beef trim so that their effect on E. coli 0157 survival could be better assessed. A commercially available apparatus of the type used for freezing embryos, together with an associated temperature logger and software, was used for this purpose with a -80 degrees C freezer as a heat sink. Four typical beef trim freezing profiles, of different starting temperatures or lengths, were selected and modelled as straight lines for ease of manipulation. A further theoretical profile with an extended freezing plateau was also developed. The laboratory-based setup worked well and the modelled freezing profiles fitted closely to the original data. No change in numbers of any of the strains was apparent for the three simulated profiles of different lengths starting at 25 degrees C. Slight but significant (P < 0.05) decreases in numbers (similar to 0.2 log cfu g(-1)) of all strains were apparent for a profile starting at 12 degrees C. A theoretical version of this profile with a freezing plateau phase extended from 11 h to 17 h resulted in significant (P < 0.05) decreases in numbers (similar to 1.2 log cfu g(-1)) of all strains. Results indicated possible avenues for future research in controlling this pathogen. The method developed in this study proved a useful and cost-effective way for simulating freezing profiles of beef trim. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construction of an Intraplate Fault System Model of South Australia, and Simulation Tool for the iSERVO Institute Seed Project

To foster ongoing international cooperation beyond ACES (APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation) on the simulation of solid earth phenomena, agreement was reached to work towards establishment of a frontier international research institute for simulating the solid earth: iSERVO = International Solid Earth Research Virtual Observatory institute (http://www.iservo.edu.au). This paper outlines a key Australian contribution towards the iSERVO institute seed project, this is the construction of: (1) a typical intraplate fault system model using practical fault system data of South Australia (i.e., SA interacting fault model), which includes data management and editing, geometrical modeling and mesh generation; and (2) a finite-element based software tool, which is built on our long-term and ongoing effort to develop the R-minimum strategy based finite-element computational algorithm and software tool for modelling three-dimensional nonlinear frictional contact behavior between multiple deformable bodies with the arbitrarily-shaped contact element strategy. A numerical simulation of the SA fault system is carried out using this software tool to demonstrate its capability and our efforts towards seeding the iSERVO Institute.

Mutation analysis to verify feature matrices for isolating errors in simulation models

Software simulation models are computer programs that need to be verified and debugged like any other software. In previous work, a method for error isolation in simulation models has been proposed. The method relies on a set of feature matrices that can be used to determine which part of the model implementation is responsible for deviations in the output of the model. Currrently these feature matrices have to be generated by hand from the model implementation, which is a tedious and error-prone task. In this paper, a method based on mutation analysis, as well as prototype tool support for the verification of the manually generated feature matrices is presented. The application of the method and tool to a model for wastewater treatment shows that the feature matrices can be verified effectively using a minimal number of mutants.

The BCD transient recorder revisited: firmware for the ISA-to-USB bridging card and software for the graphical user interface

This report describes recent updates to the custom-built data-acquisition hardware operated by the Center for Hypersonics. In 2006, an ISA-to-USB bridging card was developed as part of Luke Hillyard's final-year thesis. This card allows the hardware to be connected to any recent personal computers via a (USB or RS232) serial port and it provides a number of simple text-based commands for control of the hardware. A graphical user interface program was also updated to help the experimenter manage the data acquisition functions. Sampled data is stored in text files that have been compressed with the gzip for mat. To simplify the later archiving or transport of the data, all files specific to a shot are stored in a single directory. This includes a text file for the run description, the signal configuration file and the individual sampled-data files, one for each signal that was recorded.