Data mining and simulation: a grey relationship demonstration

Fuzzy data has grown to be an important factor in data mining. Whenever uncertainty exists, simulation can be used as a model. Simulation is very flexible, although it can involve significant levels of computation. This article discusses fuzzy decision-making using the grey related analysis method. Fuzzy models are expected to better reflect decision-making uncertainty, at some cost in accuracy relative to crisp models. Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate experimental levels of uncertainty into the data and to measure the impact of fuzzy decision tree models using categorical data. Results are compared with decision tree models based on crisp continuous data.

Development of a dosage strategy in patients receiving enoxaparin by continuous intravenous infusion using modelling and simulation

Aim To develop an appropriate dosing strategy for continuous intravenous infusions (CII) of enoxaparin by minimizing the percentage of steady-state anti-Xa concentration (C-ss) outside the therapeutic range of 0.5-1.2 IU ml(-1). Methods A nonlinear mixed effects model was developed with NONMEM (R) for 48 adult patients who received CII of enoxaparin with infusion durations that ranged from 8 to 894 h at rates between 100 and 1600 IU h(-1). Three hundred and sixty-three anti-Xa concentration measurements were available from patients who received CII. These were combined with 309 anti-Xa concentrations from 35 patients who received subcutaneous enoxaparin. The effects of age, body size, height, sex, creatinine clearance (CrCL) and patient location [intensive care unit (ICU) or general medical unit] on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations were used to (i) evaluate covariate effects on C-ss and (ii) compare the impact of different infusion rates on predicted C-ss. The best dose was selected based on the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Results A two-compartment linear model with additive and proportional residual error for general medical unit patients and only a proportional error for patients in ICU provided the best description of the data. Both CrCL and weight were found to affect significantly clearance and volume of distribution of the central compartment, respectively. Simulations suggested that the best doses for patients in the ICU setting were 50 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (4.2 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). The best doses for patients in the general medical unit were 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 100 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (8.3 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). These best doses were selected based on providing the lowest equal probability of either being above or below the therapeutic range and the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Conclusion The dose of enoxaparin should be individualized to the patients' renal function and weight. There is some evidence to support slightly lower doses of CII enoxaparin in patients in the ICU setting.

Electrodynamic heart model construction and ECG simulation

Objectives: In this paper, we present a unified electrodynamic heart model that permits simulations of the body surface potentials generated by the heart in motion. The inclusion of motion in the heart model significantly improves the accuracy of the simulated body surface potentials and therefore also the 12-lead ECG. Methods: The key step is to construct an electromechanical heart model. The cardiac excitation propagation is simulated by an electrical heart model, and the resulting cardiac active forces are used to calculate the ventricular wall motion based on a mechanical model. The source-field point relative position changes during heart systole and diastole. These can be obtained, and then used to calculate body surface ECG based on the electrical heart-torso model. Results: An electromechanical biventricular heart model is constructed and a standard 12-lead ECG is simulated. Compared with a simulated ECG based on the static electrical heart model, the simulated ECG based on the dynamic heart model is more accordant with a clinically recorded ECG, especially for the ST segment and T wave of a V1-V6 lead ECG. For slight-degree myocardial ischemia ECG simulation, the ST segment and T wave changes can be observed from the simulated ECG based on a dynamic heart model, while the ST segment and T wave of simulated ECG based on a static heart model is almost unchanged when compared with a normal ECG. Conclusions: This study confirms the importance of the mechanical factor in the ECG simulation. The dynamic heart model could provide more accurate ECG simulation, especially for myocardial ischemia or infarction simulation, since the main ECG changes occur at the ST segment and T wave, which correspond with cardiac systole and diastole phases.

Laboratory-based simulation of freezing profiles of beef trim for Escherichia coli O157 survival determinations

This study was undertaken to develop a simple laboratory-based method for simulating the freezing profiles of beef trim so that their effect on E. coli 0157 survival could be better assessed. A commercially available apparatus of the type used for freezing embryos, together with an associated temperature logger and software, was used for this purpose with a -80 degrees C freezer as a heat sink. Four typical beef trim freezing profiles, of different starting temperatures or lengths, were selected and modelled as straight lines for ease of manipulation. A further theoretical profile with an extended freezing plateau was also developed. The laboratory-based setup worked well and the modelled freezing profiles fitted closely to the original data. No change in numbers of any of the strains was apparent for the three simulated profiles of different lengths starting at 25 degrees C. Slight but significant (P < 0.05) decreases in numbers (similar to 0.2 log cfu g(-1)) of all strains were apparent for a profile starting at 12 degrees C. A theoretical version of this profile with a freezing plateau phase extended from 11 h to 17 h resulted in significant (P < 0.05) decreases in numbers (similar to 1.2 log cfu g(-1)) of all strains. Results indicated possible avenues for future research in controlling this pathogen. The method developed in this study proved a useful and cost-effective way for simulating freezing profiles of beef trim. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oscillatory regulation of hes1: Discrete stochastic delay modelling and simulation

Discrete stochastic simulations are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain molecular species. In this paper we introduce delays into the stochastic simulation algorithm, thus mimicking delays associated with transcription and translation. We then show that this process may well explain more faithfully than continuous deterministic models the observed sustained oscillations in expression levels of hes1 mRNA and Hes1 protein.

Simulation of binary mixture adsorption of methane and CO2 at supercritical conditions in carbons

Knowledge of the adsorption behavior of coal-bed gases, mainly under supercritical high-pressure conditions, is important for optimum design of production processes to recover coal-bed methane and to sequester CO2 in coal-beds. Here, we compare the two most rigorous adsorption methods based on the statistical mechanics approach, which are Density Functional Theory (DFT) and Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation, for single and binary mixtures of methane and carbon dioxide in slit-shaped pores ranging from around 0.75 to 7.5 nm in width, for pressure up to 300 bar, and temperature range of 308-348 K, as a preliminary study for the CO2 sequestration problem. For single component adsorption, the isotherms generated by DFT, especially for CO2, do not match well with GCMC calculation, and simulation is subsequently pursued here to investigate the binary mixture adsorption. For binary adsorption, upon increase of pressure, the selectivity of carbon dioxide relative to methane in a binary mixture initially increases to a maximum value, and subsequently drops before attaining a constant value at pressures higher than 300 bar. While the selectivity increases with temperature in the initial pressure-sensitive region, the constant high-pressure value is also temperature independent. Optimum selectivity at any temperature is attained at a pressure of 90-100 bar at low bulk mole fraction of CO2, decreasing to approximately 35 bar at high bulk mole fractions. (c) 2005 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

JKSimFloat V6.1 Plus: Improving flotation circuit performance by simulation

Analyzing, optimizing and designing flotation circuits using models and simulators have improved significantly over the last 15 years. Mineral flotation is now generally better understood through major advances in measuring and modeling the sub-processes within the flotation system. In addition, new and better methods have been derived to represent the floatability of particles as they move around a flotation circuit. A simulator has been developed that combines the effects of all of these sub-processes to predict the metallurgical performance of a flotation circuit. This paper presents an overview of the simulator, JKSimFloat V6.1PLUS, and its use in improving the industrial flotation plant performance. The application of the simulator at various operations is discussed with particular emphasis on the use of JKSimFloat V6.1PLUS in improving the flotation circuit performance.

Accelerated leap methods for simulating discrete stochastic chemical kinetics

Biologists are increasingly conscious of the critical role that noise plays in cellular functions such as genetic regulation, often in connection with fluctuations in small numbers of key regulatory molecules. This has inspired the development of models that capture this fundamentally discrete and stochastic nature of cellular biology - most notably the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The SSA simulates a temporally homogeneous, discrete-state, continuous-time Markov process, and of course the corresponding probabilities and numbers of each molecular species must all remain positive. While accurately serving this purpose, the SSA can be computationally inefficient due to very small time stepping so faster approximations such as the Poisson and Binomial τ-leap methods have been suggested. This work places these leap methods in the context of numerical methods for the solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Poisson noise. This allows analogues of Euler-Maruyuma, Milstein and even higher order methods to be developed through the Itô-Taylor expansions as well as similar derivative-free Runge-Kutta approaches. Numerical results demonstrate that these novel methods compare favourably with existing techniques for simulating biochemical reactions by more accurately capturing crucial properties such as the mean and variance than existing methods.

Energy derivative market and derivative pricing via simulation

The deregulation of power industry worldwide has delivered the efficiency gains to the society; meanwhile, the intensity of competition has increased uncertainty and risks to market participants. Consequently, market participants are keen to hedge the market risks and maintain a competitive edge in the market; and this is a good explanation to the flourish of electricity derivative market. In this paper, the authors gave a comprehensive review of derivative contract pricing methods and proposed a new framework for energy derivative pricing to suit the needs of a deregulated electricity market