Designs for generalized linear models with several variables and model uncertainty

Standard factorial designs sometimes may be inadequate for experiments that aim to estimate a generalized linear model, for example, for describing a binary response in terms of several variables. A method is proposed for finding exact designs for such experiments that uses a criterion allowing for uncertainty in the link function, the linear predictor, or the model parameters, together with a design search. Designs are assessed and compared by simulation of the distribution of efficiencies relative to locally optimal designs over a space of possible models. Exact designs are investigated for two applications, and their advantages over factorial and central composite designs are demonstrated.

Right ventricle extraction by low level and model-based algorithm

In this paper we present an algorithm as the combination of a low level morphological operation and model based Global Circular Shortest Path scheme to explore the segmentation of the Right Ventricle. Traditional morphological operations were employed to obtain the region of interest, and adjust it to generate a mask. The image cropped by the mask is then partitioned into a few overlapping regions. Global Circular Shortest Path algorithm is then applied to extract the contour from each partition. The final step is to re-assemble the partitions to create the whole contour. The technique is deemed quite reliable and robust, as this is illustrated by a very good agreement between the extracted contour and the expert manual drawing output.

The influence of substrate kinetics on the microbial community structure in granular anaerobic biomass

The development of a strong, active granular sludge bed is necessary for optimal operation of upflow anaerobic sludge blanket reactors. The microbial and mechanical structure of the granules may have a strong influence on desirable properties such as growth rate, settling velocity and shear strength. Theories have been proposed for granule microbial structure based on the relative kinetics of substrate degradation, but contradict some observations from both modelling and microscopic studies. In this paper, the structures of four granule types were examined from full-scale UASB reactors, treating wastewater from a cannery, a slaughterhouse, and two breweries. Microbial structure was determined using fluorescence in situ hybridisation probing with 16S rRNA-directed oligonucleotide probes, and superficial structure and microbial density (volume occupied by cells and microbial debris) assessed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The granules were also modelled using a distributed parameter biofilm model, with a previously published biochemical model structure, biofilm modelling approach, and model parameters. The model results reflected the trophic structures observed, indicating that the structures were possibly determined by kinetics. Of particular interest were results from simulations of the protein grown granules, which were predicted to have slow growth rates, low microbial density, and no trophic layers, the last two of which were reflected by microscopic observations. The primary cause of this structure, as assessed by modelling, was the particulate nature of the wastewater, and the slow rate of particulate hydrolysis, rather than the presence of proteins in the wastewater. Because solids hydrolysis was rate limiting, soluble substrate concentrations were very low (below Monod half saturation concentration), which caused low growth rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data flow and validation in workflow modelling

A complete workflow specification requires careful integration of many different process characteristics. Decisions must be made as to the definitions of individual activities, their scope, the order of execution that maintains the overall business process logic, the rules governing the discipline of work list scheduling to performers, identification of time constraints and more. The goal of this paper is to address an important issue in workflows modelling and specification, which is data flow, its modelling, specification and validation. Researchers have neglected this dimension of process analysis for some time, mainly focussing on structural considerations with limited verification checks. In this paper, we identify and justify the importance of data modelling in overall workflows specification and verification. We illustrate and define several potential data flow problems that, if not detected prior to workflow deployment may prevent the process from correct execution, execute process on inconsistent data or even lead to process suspension. A discussion on essential requirements of the workflow data model in order to support data validation is also given..

A GIS Based Assessment of Land Suitable for Growing Hoop Pine in the Atherton, Eacham and Herberton Shires of North Queensland

The area of private land suitable and available for growing hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) on the Atherton Tablelands in North Queensland was modelled using a geographic information system (GIS). In Atherton, Eacham and Herberton shires, approximately 64,700 ha of privately owned land were identified as having a mean annual rainfall and soil type similar to Forestry Plantations Queensland (FPQ) hoop pine growth plots with an approximate growth rate of 20 m3 per annum. Land with slope of over 25° and land covered with native vegetation were excluded in the estimation. If land which is currently used for high-value agriculture is also excluded, the net area of land potentially suitable and available for expansion of hoop pine plantations is approximately 22,900 ha. Expert silvicultural advice emphasized the role of site preparation and weed control in affecting the long-term growth rate of hoop pine. Hence, sites with less than optimal fertility and rainfall may be considered as being potentially suitable for growing hoop pine at a lower growth rate. The datasets had been prepared at various scales and differing precision for their description of land attributes. Therefore, the results of this investigation have limited applicability for planning at the individual farm level but are useful at the regional level to target areas for plantation expansion.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.