Satellite observation and climate system model simulation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya

The St. Lawrence Island polynya (SLIP) is a commonly occurring winter phenomenon in the Bering Sea, in which dense saline water produced during new ice formation is thought to flow northward through the Bering Strait to help maintain the Arctic Ocean halocline. Winter darkness and inclement weather conditions have made continuous in situ and remote observation of this polynya difficult. However, imagery acquired from the European Space Agency ERS-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) has allowed observation of the St. Lawrence Island polynya using both the imagery and derived ice displacement products. With the development of ARCSyM, a high resolution regional model of the Arctic atmosphere/sea ice system, simulation of the SLIP in a climate model is now possible. Intercomparisons between remotely sensed products and simulations can lead to additional insight into the SLIP formation process. Low resolution SAR, SSM/I and AVHRR infrared imagery for the St. Lawrence Island region are compared with the results of a model simulation for the period of 24-27 February 1992. The imagery illustrates a polynya event (polynya opening). With the northerly winds strong and consistent over several days, the coupled model captures the SLIP event with moderate accuracy. However, the introduction of a stability dependent atmosphere-ice drag coefficient, which allows feedbacks between atmospheric stability, open water, and air-ice drag, produces a more accurate simulation of the SLIP in comparison to satellite imagery. Model experiments show that the polynya event is forced primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation followed by persistent favorable conditions: ocean surface currents are found to have a small but positive impact on the simulation which is enhanced when wind forcing is weak or variable.

Exact solution for the Bariev model with boundary fields

The Bariev model with open boundary conditions is introduced and analysed in detail in the framework of the Quantum Inverse Scattering Method. Two classes of independent boundary reflecting K-matrices leading to four different types of boundary fields are obtained by solving the reflection equations. The models are exactly solved by means of the algebraic nested Bethe ansatz method and the four sets or Bethe ansatz equations as well as their corresponding energy expressions are derived. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Izergin-Korepin model with a boundary

The Izergin-Korepin model on a semi-infinite lattice is diagonalized by using the level-one vertex operators of the twisted quantum affine algebra U-q[((2))(2)]. We give the bosonization of the vacuum state with zero particle content. Excitation states are given by the action of the vertex operators on the vacuum state. We derive the boundary S-matrix. We give an integral expression of the correlation functions of the boundary model, and derive the difference equations which they satisfy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

MRI based diffusion and perfusion predictive model to estimate stroke evolution

In this study we present a novel automated strategy for predicting infarct evolution, based on MR diffusion and perfusion images acquired in the acute stage of stroke. The validity of this methodology was tested on novel patient data including data acquired from an independent stroke clinic. Regions-of-interest (ROIs) defining the initial diffusion lesion and tissue with abnormal hemodynamic function as defined by the mean transit time (MTT) abnormality were automatically extracted from DWI/PI maps. Quantitative measures of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and volume (CBV) along with ratio measures defined relative to the contralateral hemisphere (r(a)CBF and r(a)CBV) were calculated for the MTT ROIs. A parametric normal classifier algorithm incorporating these measures was used to predict infarct growth. The mean r(a)CBF and r(a)CBV values for eventually infarcted MTT tissue were 0.70 +/-0.19 and 1.20 +/-0.36. For recovered tissue the mean values were 0.99 +/-0.25 and 1.87 +/-0.71, respectively. There was a significant difference between these two regions for both measures (P

Binocular rivalry and the cerebral hemispheres with a note on the correlates and constitution of visual consciousness

In addressing the scientific study of consciousness, Crick and Koch state, "It is probable that at any moment some active neuronal processes in your head correlate with consciousness, while others do not: what is the difference between them?" (1998, p. 97). Evidence from electrophysiological and brain-imaging studies of binocular rivalry supports the premise of this statement and answers to some extent, the question posed. I discuss these recent developments and outline the rationale and experimental evidence for the interhemispheric switch hypothesis of perceptual rivalry. According to this model, the perceptual alternations of rivalry reflect hemispheric alternations, suggesting that visual consciousness of rivalling stimuli may be unihemispheric at any one time (Miller et al., 2000). However, in this paper, I suggest that interhemispheric switching could involve alternating unihemispheric attentional selection of neuronal processes for access to visual consciousness. On this view, visual consciousness during rivalry could be bihemispheric because the processes constitutive of attentional selection may be distinct from those constitutive of visual consciousness. This is a special case of the important distinction between the neuronal correlates and constitution of visual consciousness.

Long-run growth effects of taxation in a non-scale growth model with innovation

In previous studies, taxing income or consumption hinders long-run growth. Incorporating saving and leisure into the non-scale Schumpeterian model of [Journal of Political Economy 107 (1999) 715-730], we show that the usual growth effects of taxing consumption and labor income do not exist. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite mixture regression model with random effects: application to neonatal hospital length of stay

A two-component mixture regression model that allows simultaneously for heterogeneity and dependency among observations is proposed. By specifying random effects explicitly in the linear predictor of the mixture probability and the mixture components, parameter estimation is achieved by maximising the corresponding best linear unbiased prediction type log-likelihood. Approximate residual maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an EM algorithm in the manner of generalised linear mixed model (GLMM). The method can be extended to a g-component mixture regression model with the component density from the exponential family, leading to the development of the class of finite mixture GLMM. For illustration, the method is applied to analyse neonatal length of stay (LOS). It is shown that identification of pertinent factors that influence hospital LOS can provide important information for health care planning and resource allocation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal price regulation in a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods

In this paper we investigate the trade-off faced by regulators who must set a price for an intermediate good somewhere between the marginal cost and the monopoly price. We utilize a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods. Investment in innovation is required to produce a new intermediate good. Marginal cost pricing deters innovation, while monopoly pricing maximizes innovation and economic growth at the cost of some static inefficiency. We demonstrate the existence of a second-best price above the marginal cost but below the monopoly price, which maximizes consumer welfare. Simulation results suggest that substantial reductions in consumption, production, growth, and welfare occur where regulators focus on static efficiency issues by setting prices at or near marginal cost.

Exact solution of the XXZ Gaudin model with generic open boundaries

The XXZ Gaudin model with generic integrable boundaries specified by generic non-diagonal K-matrices is studied. The commuting families of Gaudin operators are diagonalized by the algebraic Bethe ansatz method. The eigenvalues and the corresponding Bethe ansatz equations are obtained. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional serotonin 5-HT4 receptors in porcine and human ventricular myocardium with increased 5-HT4 mRNA in heart failure

Serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) increases contractile force and elicits arrhythmias through 5-HT4 receptors in porcine and human atrium, but its ventricular effects are unknown. We now report functional 5-HT4 receptors in porcine and human ventricle. 5-HT4 mRNA levels were determined in porcine and human ventricles and contractility studied in ventricular trabeculae. Cyclic AMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) activity was measured in porcine ventricle. Porcine and human ventricles expressed 5-HT4 receptor mRNA. Ventricular 5-HT4(b) mRNA was increased by four times in 20 failing human hearts compared with five donor hearts. 5-HT increased contractile force maximally by 16% (EC50=890 nM) and PKA activity by 20% of the effects of (-)-isoproterenol (200 muM) in ventricular trabeculae from new-born piglets in the presence of the phosphodiesterase-inhibitor 3-isobutyl-1-methylxanthine. In ventricular trabeculae from adult pigs (3-isobutyl-1-methylxanthine present) 5-HT increased force by 32% (EC50=60 nM) and PKA activity by 39% of (-)-iso-proterenol. In right and left ventricular trabeculae from failing hearts, exposed to modified Krebs solution, 5-HT produced variable increases in contractile force in right ventricular trabeculae from 4 out of 6 hearts and in left ventricular trabeculae from 3 out of 3 hearts- range 1-39% of (-)-isoproterenol, average 8%. In 11 left ventricular trabeculae from the failing hearts of four beta-blocker-treated patients, pre-exposed to a relaxant solution with 0.5 mM Ca2+ and 1.2 mM Mg2+ followed by a switch to 2.5 mM Ca2+ and 1 mM Mg2+, 5-HT (1-100 muM, 3-isobutyl-1-melhylxanthine present) consistently increased contractile force and hastened relaxation by 46% and 25% of (-)-isoproterenol respectively. 5-HT caused arrhythmias in three trabeculae from 3 out of I I patients. In the absence of phosphodiesterase inhibitor, 5-HT increased force in two trabeculae, but not in another six trabeculae from 4 patients. All 5-HT responses were blocked by 5-HT4 receptor antagonists. We conclude that phosphodiesterase inhibition uncovers functional ventricular 5-HT4 receptors, coupled to a PKA pathway, through which 5-HT enhances contractility, hastens relaxation and can potentially cause arrhythmias.

Cost-effectiveness of combination peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin compared with interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND: Sustained virological response (SVR) is the primary objective in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Results from a recent clinical trial of patients with previously untreated CHC demonstrate that the combination of peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin produces a greater SVR than interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin combination therapy. However, the cost-effectiveness of peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin in the U.S. setting has not been investigated. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to investigate cost-effectiveness in patients with CHC using genotype to guide treatment duration. SVR and disease progression parameters were derived from the clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. The impact of treatment on life expectancy and costs were projected for a lifetime. Patients who had an SVR were assumed to remain virus-free for the rest of their lives. In genotype 1 patients, the SVRs were 46% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 36% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. In genotype 2/3 patients, the SVRs were 76% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 61% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Quality of life and costs were based on estimates from the literature. All costs were based on published U.S. medical care costs and were adjusted to 2003 U.S. dollars. Costs and benefits beyond the first year were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: In genotype 1, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY) by 0.70 yr compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin, producing a cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,600 per QALY gained. In genotype 2/3 patients, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases QALY by 1.05 yr in comparison to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Peginterferon alpha-2a combination therapy in patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 is dominant (more effective and cost saving) compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Results weighted by genotype prevalence (75% genotype 1; 25% genotype 2 or 3) also show that peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin is dominant. Peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin remained cost-effective (below $16,500 per QALY gained) under sensitivity analyses on key clinical and cost parameters. CONCLUSION: Peginterferon alpha-2a in combination with ribavirin with duration of therapy based on genotype, is cost-effective compared with conventional interferon alpha-2b in combination with ribavirin when given to treatment-naive adults with CHC.

Influence of socioeconomic deprivation on the primary care burden and treatment of patients with a diagnosis of heart failure in general practice in Scotland: population based study

Objectives To examine whether there are socioeconomic gradients in die incidence, prevalence, treatment, and follow up of patients with heart failure in primary care. Design Population based study. Setting 53 general practices (307741 patients) participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording project between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Participants 2186 adults with heart failure. Main outcome measures Comorbid diagnoses, frequency of visits to general practitioner, and prescribed drugs. Results 2186 patients with heart failure were seen (prevalence 7.1 per 1000 population, incidence 2.0 per 1000 population). The age and sex standardised incidence of heart failure increased with greater socioeconomic deprivation, from 1.8 per 1000 population in the most affluent stratum to 2.6 per 1000 population in the most deprived stratum (odds ratio 1.44, P=0.0003). On average, patients were seen 2.4 times yearly, but follow up rates were less frequent with increasing socioeconomic deprivation (from 2.6 yearly in the most affluent subgroup to 2.0 yearly in the most deprived subgroup, P=0.00009). Overall, 812 (80.6%) patients were prescribed diuretics, 396 (39.3%) angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, 216 (21.4%) beta blockers, 208 (20.7%) digoxin, and 86 (8.5%) spironolactone. The wide discrepancies in prescribing between different general practices disappeared after adjustment for patient age and sex. Prescribing patterns did not vary by deprivation categories on univariate or multivariate analyses. Conclusions Compared with affluent patients, socioeconomically deprived patients were 44% more likely to develop heart failure but 23% less likely to see their general practitioner on an ongoing basis. Prescribed treatment did not differ across socioeconomic gradients.

The etiology of social phobia: Empirical evidence and an initial model

Research into the etiology of social phobia has lagged far behind that of descriptive and maintaining factors. The current paper reviews data from a variety of sources that have some bearing on questions of the origins of social fears. Areas examined include genetic factors, temperament, childrearing, negative life events, and adverse social experiences. Epidemiological data are examined in detail and factors associated with social phobia such as cognitive distortions and social skills are also covered. The paper concludes with an initial model that draws together some of the current findings and aims to provide a platform for future research directions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence and risk factors associated with exertional rhabdomyolysis syndrome in National Hunt racehorses in Great Britain

A telephone survey of 51 National Hunt racing yards with 1140 horses in training was made in April and May 2003 to establish the incidence of exertional rhabdomyolysis syndrome during the previous year. A case-control study was used to investigate the risk factors for the syndrome in eight yards selected on the basis that cases had been confirmed by the analysis of serum muscle enzymes. The overall incidence of syndrome was 6 center dot 1 cases per 100 horses per year, and 55 per cent of the yards reported at least one case. The risk factors identified were sex, the average length of the training gallop, and the type of horse (steeplechaser, bumper/unraced or hurdler). There were no significant associations with the horses' temperament, age or Timeform rating.