An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Inter-subband redundancy prediction using neural network for video coding

High performance video codec is mandatory for multimedia applications such as video-on-demand and video conferencing. Recent research has proposed numerous video coding techniques to meet the requirement in bandwidth, delay, loss and Quality-of-Service (QoS). In this paper, we present our investigations on inter-subband self-similarity within the wavelet-decomposed video frames using neural networks, and study the performance of applying the spatial network model to all video frames over time. The goal of our proposed method is to restore the highest perceptual quality for video transmitted over a highly congested network. Our contributions in this paper are: (1) A new coding model with neural network based, inter-subband redundancy (ISR) prediction for video coding using wavelet (2) The performance of 1D and 2D ISR prediction, including multiple levels of wavelet decompositions. Our result shows a short-term quality enhancement may be obtained using both 1D and 2D ISR prediction.

Computational methods for prediction of T-cell epitopes - a framework for modelling, testing, and applications

Computational models complement laboratory experimentation for efficient identification of MHC-binding peptides and T-cell epitopes. Methods for prediction of MHC-binding peptides include binding motifs, quantitative matrices, artificial neural networks, hidden Markov models, and molecular modelling. Models derived by these methods have been successfully used for prediction of T-cell epitopes in cancer, autoimmunity, infectious disease, and allergy. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures and performed according to strict standards. This requires careful selection of data for model building, and adequate testing and validation. A range of web-based databases and MHC-binding prediction programs are available. Although some available prediction programs for particular MHC alleles have reasonable accuracy, there is no guarantee that all models produce good quality predictions. In this article, we present and discuss a framework for modelling, testing, and applications of computational methods used in predictions of T-cell epitopes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Color constancy and the functional significance of McCollough effects

A central problem in visual perception concerns how humans perceive stable and uniform object colors despite variable lighting conditions (i.e. color constancy). One solution is to 'discount' variations in lighting across object surfaces by encoding color contrasts, and utilize this information to 'fill in' properties of the entire object surface. Implicit in this solution is the caveat that the color contrasts defining object boundaries must be distinguished from the spurious color fringes that occur naturally along luminance-defined edges in the retinal image (i.e. optical chromatic aberration). In the present paper, we propose that the neural machinery underlying color constancy is complemented by an 'error-correction' procedure which compensates for chromatic aberration, and suggest that error-correction may be linked functionally to the experimentally induced illusory colored aftereffects known as McCollough effects (MEs). To test these proposals, we develop a neural network model which incorporates many of the receptive-field (RF) profiles of neurons in primate color vision. The model is composed of two parallel processing streams which encode complementary sets of stimulus features: one stream encodes color contrasts to facilitate filling-in and color constancy; the other stream selectively encodes (spurious) color fringes at luminance boundaries, and learns to inhibit the filling-in of these colors within the first stream. Computer simulations of the model illustrate how complementary color-spatial interactions between error-correction and filling-in operations (a) facilitate color constancy, (b) reveal functional links between color constancy and the ME, and (c) reconcile previously reported anomalies in the local (edge) and global (spreading) properties of the ME. We discuss the broader implications of these findings by considering the complementary functional roles performed by RFs mediating color-spatial interactions in the primate visual system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Strategies for identifying and predicting islet autoantigen T-cell epitopes in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

T cells recognize peptide epitopes bound to major histocompatibility complex molecules. Human T-cell epitopes have diagnostic and therapeutic applications in autoimmune diseases. However, their accurate definition within an autoantigen by T-cell bioassay, usually proliferation, involves many costly peptides and a large amount of blood, We have therefore developed a strategy to predict T-cell epitopes and applied it to tyrosine phosphatase IA-2, an autoantigen in IDDM, and HLA-DR4(*0401). First, the binding of synthetic overlapping peptides encompassing IA-2 was measured directly to purified DR4. Secondly, a large amount of HLA-DR4 binding data were analysed by alignment using a genetic algorithm and were used to train an artificial neural network to predict the affinity of binding. This bioinformatic prediction method was then validated experimentally and used to predict DR4 binding peptides in IA-2. The binding set encompassed 85% of experimentally determined T-cell epitopes. Both the experimental and bioinformatic methods had high negative predictive values, 92% and 95%, indicating that this strategy of combining experimental results with computer modelling should lead to a significant reduction in the amount of blood and the number of peptides required to define T-cell epitopes in humans.

Visualization of learning in multilayer perceptron networks using principal component analysis

This paper is concerned with the use of scientific visualization methods for the analysis of feedforward neural networks (NNs). Inevitably, the kinds of data associated with the design and implementation of neural networks are of very high dimensionality, presenting a major challenge for visualization. A method is described using the well-known statistical technique of principal component analysis (PCA). This is found to be an effective and useful method of visualizing the learning trajectories of many learning algorithms such as back-propagation and can also be used to provide insight into the learning process and the nature of the error surface.

Generation and phenotypic characterization of new human ovarian cancer cell lines with the identification of antigens potentially recognizable by HLA-restricted cytotoxic T cells

This study describes a simple method for long-term establishment of human ovarian tumor lines and prediction of T-cell epitopes that could be potentially useful in the generation of tumor-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs), Nine ovarian tumor lines (INT.Ov) were generated from solid primary or metastatic tumors as well as from ascitic fluid, Notably all lines expressed HLA class I, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), polymorphic epithelial mucin (PEM) and cytokeratin (CK), but not HLA class II, B7.1 (CD80) or BAGE, While of the 9 lines tested 4 (INT.Ov1, 2, 5 and 6) expressed the folate receptor (FR-alpha) and 6 (INT.Ov1, 2, 5, 6, 7 and 9) expressed the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR); MAGE-1 and p185(HER-2/neu) were only found in 2 lines (INT.Ov1 and 2) and GAGE-1 expression in 1 line (INT.Ov2). The identification of class I MHC ligands and T-cell epitopes within protein antigens was achieved by applying several theoretical methods including: 1) similarity or homology searches to MHCPEP; 2) BIMAS and 3) artificial neural network-based predictions of proteins MACE, GAGE, EGFR, p185(HER-2/neu) and FR-alpha expressed in INT.Ov lines, Because of the high frequency of expression of some of these proteins in ovarian cancer and the ability to determine HLA binding peptides efficiently, it is expected that after appropriate screening, a large cohort of ovarian cancer patients may become candidates to receive peptide based vaccines. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new diffusion and flow theory for activated carbon from low pressure to capillary condensation range

In this paper, we develop a theory for diffusion and flow of pure sub-critical adsorbates in microporous activated carbon over a wide range of pressure, ranging from very low to high pressure, where capillary condensation is occurring. This theory does not require any fitting parameter. The only information needed for the prediction is the complete pore size distribution of activated carbon. The various interesting behaviors of permeability versus loading are observed such as the maximum permeability at high loading (occurred at about 0.8-0.9 relative pressure). The theory is tested with diffusion and flow of benzene through a commercial activated carbon, and the agreement is found to be very good in the light that there is no fitting parameter in the model. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Teleonomic entropy: measuring the phase-space of end-directed systems

We introduce a novel way of measuring the entropy of a set of values undergoing changes. Such a measure becomes useful when analyzing the temporal development of an algorithm designed to numerically update a collection of values such as artificial neural network weights undergoing adjustments during learning. We measure the entropy as a function of the phase-space of the values, i.e. their magnitude and velocity of change, using a method based on the abstract measure of entropy introduced by the philosopher Rudolf Carnap. By constructing a time-dynamic two-dimensional Voronoi diagram using Voronoi cell generators with coordinates of value- and value-velocity (change of magnitude), the entropy becomes a function of the cell areas. We term this measure teleonomic entropy since it can be used to describe changes in any end-directed (teleonomic) system. The usefulness of the method is illustrated when comparing the different approaches of two search algorithms, a learning artificial neural network and a population of discovering agents. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inherent size constraints on prokaryote gene networks due to "accelerating" growth

Networks exhibiting accelerating growth have total link numbers growing faster than linearly with network size and either reach a limit or exhibit graduated transitions from nonstationary-to-stationary statistics and from random to scale-free to regular statistics as the network size grows. However, if for any reason the network cannot tolerate such gross structural changes then accelerating networks are constrained to have sizes below some critical value. This is of interest as the regulatory gene networks of single-celled prokaryotes are characterized by an accelerating quadratic growth and are size constrained to be less than about 10,000 genes encoded in DNA sequence of less than about 10 megabases. This paper presents a probabilistic accelerating network model for prokaryotic gene regulation which closely matches observed statistics by employing two classes of network nodes (regulatory and non-regulatory) and directed links whose inbound heads are exponentially distributed over all nodes and whose outbound tails are preferentially attached to regulatory nodes and described by a scale-free distribution. This model explains the observed quadratic growth in regulator number with gene number and predicts an upper prokaryote size limit closely approximating the observed value. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

MULTIPRED: A computational system for prediction of promiscuous HLA binding peptides

MULTIPRED is a web-based computational system for the prediction of peptide binding to multiple molecules ( proteins) belonging to human leukocyte antigens (HLA) class I A2, A3 and class II DR supertypes. It uses hidden Markov models and artificial neural network methods as predictive engines. A novel data representation method enables MULTIPRED to predict peptides that promiscuously bind multiple HLA alleles within one HLA supertype. Extensive testing was performed for validation of the prediction models. Testing results show that MULTIPRED is both sensitive and specific and it has good predictive ability ( area under the receiver operating characteristic curve A(ROC) > 0.80). MULTIPRED can be used for the mapping of promiscuous T-cell epitopes as well as the regions of high concentration of these targets termed T-cell epitope hotspots. MULTIPRED is available at http:// antigen.i2r.a-star.edu.sg/ multipred/.

Prediction of subcellular localization using sequence-biased recurrent networks

Motivation: Targeting peptides direct nascent proteins to their specific subcellular compartment. Knowledge of targeting signals enables informed drug design and reliable annotation of gene products. However, due to the low similarity of such sequences and the dynamical nature of the sorting process, the computational prediction of subcellular localization of proteins is challenging. Results: We contrast the use of feed forward models as employed by the popular TargetP/SignalP predictors with a sequence-biased recurrent network model. The models are evaluated in terms of performance at the residue level and at the sequence level, and demonstrate that recurrent networks improve the overall prediction performance. Compared to the original results reported for TargetP, an ensemble of the tested models increases the accuracy by 6 and 5% on non-plant and plant data, respectively.

Robustness of mathematical models for biological systems

The robustness of mathematical models for biological systems is studied by sensitivity analysis and stochastic simulations. Using a neural network model with three genes as the test problem, we study robustness properties of synthesis and degradation processes. For single parameter robustness, sensitivity analysis techniques are applied for studying parameter variations and stochastic simulations are used for investigating the impact of external noise. Results of sensitivity analysis are consistent with those obtained by stochastic simulations. Stochastic models with external noise can be used for studying the robustness not only to external noise but also to parameter variations. For external noise we also use stochastic models to study the robustness of the function of each gene and that of the system.