The intuitive basis of implicature: relevance theoretic implicitness versus gricean implying

The notion of implicature was first introduced by Paul Grice (1967, 1989), who defined it essentially as what is communicated less what is said. This definition contributed in part to the proliferation of a large number of different species of implicature by neo-Griceans. Relevance theorists have responded to this by proposing a shift back to the distinction between "explicit" & "implicit" meaning (corresponding to "explicature" & "implicature," respectively). However, they appear to have pared down the concept of implicature too much, ignoring phenomena that may be better treated as implicatures in their overgeneralization of the concept of explicature. These problems have their roots in the fact that explicit & implicit meaning intuitively overlap & thus do not provide a suitable basis for distinguishing implicature from other types of pragmatic phenomena. An alternative conceptualization of implicature based on the concept of "implying" with which Grice originally associated his notion of implicature is thus proposed. From this definition, it emerges that implicature constitutes something else inferred by the addressee that is not literally said by the speaker. Instead, it is meant in addition to what the speaker literally says & is consequently defeasible like all other types of pragmatic phenomena. 1 Figure, 60 References. Adapted from the source document

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Immune correlate study on human Schistosoma japonicum in a well-defined population in Leyte, Philippines: I. Assessment of 'resistance' versus 'susceptibility' to S-japonicum infection

This study describes the categorical classification of 155 individuals living in an endemic village in Macanip, Leyte, Philippines as 'resistant' or 'susceptible' to Schistosoma japonicum infection using available exposure, infection and reinfection data collected from a 3-year water contact (WC) study. Epidemiological parameters including age, sex, and infection intensities in relation to observed reinfection patterns are also described. This classification was used in subsequent immunological studies described in two accompanying papers to identify protective immune mechanisms among resistant individuals induced by defined candidate vaccine molecules for S. japonicum. The study suggests that individuals who were most vulnerable to rapid reinfection were children belonging to the 5-14 age group. A drop in incidence at age group 15-19 and decreased intensity of infection starting at this age group and older (15+) suggests development of immunity. Controlling for the effect of the other variables, a multivariate analysis showed significant association for sex, in that females were more likely to be resistant. This implies that other than acquired immunity to infection, some age-dependent host factors may also play an important role in the overall changes of reinfection patterns seen in schistosomiasis japonica in this population. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost comparison of hospital- and home-based treatment models for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This trial compared the cost of an integrated home-based care model with traditional inpatient care for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 25 patients with acute COPD were randomised to either home or hospital management following request for hospital admission. The acute care at home group costs per separation ($745, CI95% $595-$895, n = 13) were significantly lower (p < 0.01) than the hospital group ($2543, CI95% $1766-$3321, n = 12). There was an improvement in lung function in the hospital-managed group at the Outpatient Department review, decreased anxiety in the Emergency Department in the home-managed group and equal patient satisfaction with care delivery. Acute care at home schemes can substitute for usual hospital care for some patients without adverse effects, and potentially release resources. A funding model that allows adequate resource delivery to the community will be needed if there is a move to devolve acute care to community providers.

A Pilot Randomized Trial Comparing CD-34Selected Versus Unmanipulated Hemopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Severe, Refractory Rheumatoid Arthritis

Objective. Evidence from animal studies, case reports, and phase I studies suggests that hemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) can be effective in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It is unclear, however, if depletion of T cells in the stem cell product infused after high-dose chemotherapy is beneficial in prolonging responses by reducing the number of infused autoreactive T cells. This pilot multicenter, randomized trial was undertaken to obtain feasibility data on whether CD34 selection (as a form of T cell depletion) of an autologous stem cell graft is of benefit in the HSCT procedure in patients with severe, refractory RA. Methods. Thirty-three patients with severe RA who had been treated unsuccessfully with methotrexate and at least 1 other disease-modifying agent were enrolled in the trial. The patients received high-dose immunosuppressive treatment with 200 mg/kg cyclophosphamide followed by an infusion of autologous stem cells that were CD34 selected or unmanipulated. Safety, efficacy (based on American College of Rheumatology [ACR] response criteria), and time to recurrence of disease were assessed on a monthly basis for up to 12 months. Results. All patients were living at the end of the study, with no major unexpected toxicities. Overall, on an intent-to-treat basis, ACR 20% response (ACR20) was achieved in 70% of the patients. An ACR70 response was attained in 27.7% of the 18 patients who had received CD34-selected cells and 53.3% of the 15 who had received unmanipulated cells (P = 0.20). The median time to disease recurrence was 147 days in the CD34-selected cell group and 201 days in the unmanipulated cell group (P = 0.28). There was no relationship between CD4 lymphopenia and response, but 72% of rheumatoid factor (RF)-positive patients had an increase in RF titer prior to recurrence of disease. Conclusion. HSCT can be performed safely in patients with RA, and initial results indicate significant responses in patients with severe, treatment-resistant disease. Similar outcomes were observed in patients undergoing HSCT with unmanipulated cells and those receiving CD34-selected cells. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Selective ingestion of pelagic versus benthic algae by the cockle Cerastoderma edule (Linne, 1758)

The pre-ingestive selection of microphytobenthic algae by the cockle Cerastoderma edule was studied in comparison with diets containing the pelagic diatom Phaeodactylum tricomutum. Treatments with the different diets covered a range of seston concentrations and organic content similar to field conditions. Rejection rates of C. edule exposed to the different treatments were significantly correlated with the concentration of total particulate matter. No significant differences in total rejection rates were found between pelagic and benthic diets. Organic rejection rate was significantly correlated with particulate organic matter of the treatments and no significant differences were found between both diets. Selection efficiency was significantly correlated with particulate organic matter concentration in both diets and no significant differences were found between the diets. Analysis of the pseudofeces composition by flow cytometry from cockles exposed to a mixed diet of microphytobenthic algae and P. tricornutum, showed a preferential ingestion of the pelagic diatom. Benthic species, such as small pennates and Navicula sp., were preferentially ingested in comparison to larger microphytobenthic species. The largest microphytobenthic species, Cylindrotheca sp., was significantly rejected. In general, C. edule is an opportunistic filter feeder that takes advantage of both pelagic and benthic algal cells.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

Consumers' perceived risk: Sources versus consequences

In this study, we examine an important factor that affects consumers' acceptance of business-to-commerce (B2C) electronic commerce - perceived risk. The objective of this paper is to examine the definition of perceived risk in the context of B2C electronic commerce. The paper highlights the importance of perceived risk and the interwoven relation between perceived risk and trust. It discusses the problem of defining perceived risk in prior B2C research. This study proposes a new classification of consumers' perceived risk based on sources. It highlights the importance of identifying the sources of consumer's risk perceptions in addition to the consequences dimensions. Two focus group discussion sessions were conducted to verify the proposed classification. Results indicate that Internet consumers perceive three sources of risk in B2C electronic commerce: technology, vendor, and product. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.