An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Immune response to Bacteroides forsythus in a murine model

A murine skin abscess model was used to study the immune response to an acute infection with Bacteroides forsythus. BALB/c mice were given subcutaneous injections of either viable or heat-killed B. forsythus, while a third sham-immunized control group received phosphate-buffered saline. Weights and lesion sizes were measured. Blood was collected from the heart and specific antibodies to B. forsythus measured by an ELISA. Swabs taken from the lesions and also from pooled blood were cultured anaerobically for viable B. forsythus. Viable B. forsythus-induced lesions reached maximum size at day 7. B. forsythus cells were recovered from lesions up to day 4 although none were cultured from blood samples. Heat-killed bacteria induced much smaller lesions. Serum antibody levels increased during the 9-day study period, being significantly higher in mice injected with viable compared with heat-killed B. forsythus. Antibody levels in sham control mice were significantly lower than those seen in the other two groups. These results showed that a subcutaneous injection of viable cells of B. forsythus elicited a pronounced abscess formation and induce higher levels of specific antibodies compared with that produced by an injection of dead bacteria. This suggests that, as with other periodontopathic organisms, this mouse model can be used to study the immune response to B. forsythus.

Model based procedure for scale-up of wet overflow ball mills Part 1: Outline of the methodology

Bond's method for ball mill scale-up only gives the mill power draw for a given duty. This method is incompatible with computer modelling and simulation techniques. It might not be applicable for the design of fine grinding ball mills and ball mills preceded by autogenous and semi-autogenous grinding mills. Model-based ball mill scale-up methods have not been validated using a wide range of full-scale circuit data. Their accuracy is therefore questionable. Some of these methods also need expensive pilot testing. A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which does not have these limitations. This procedure uses data from two laboratory tests to determine the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of full-scale mill circuits. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part II: Worked example

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed which uses laboratory data to predict the performance of MI-scale ball mill circuits. This procedure contains two laboratory tests. These laboratory tests give the data for the determination of the parameters of a ball mill model. A set of scale-up criteria then scales-up these parameters. The procedure uses the scaled-up parameters to simulate the steady state performance of the full-scale mill circuit. At the end of the simulation, the scale-up procedure gives the size distribution, the volumetric flowrate and the mass flowrate of all the streams in the circuit, and the mill power draw. A worked example shows how the new ball mill scale-up procedure is executed. This worked example uses laboratory data to predict the performance of a full-scale re-grind mill circuit. This circuit consists of a ball mill in closed circuit with hydrocyclones. The MI-scale ball mill has a diameter (inside liners) of 1.85m. The scale-up procedure shows that the full-scale circuit produces a product (hydrocyclone overflow) that has an 80% passing size of 80 mum. The circuit has a recirculating load of 173%. The calculated power draw of the full-scale mill is 92kW (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model-based procedure for scale-up of wet, overflow ball mills - Part III: Validation and discussion

A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

n-fold Weibull multiplicative model

In this paper we study the n-fold multiplicative model involving Weibull distributions and examine some properties of the model. These include the shapes for the density and failure rate functions and the WPP plot. These allow one to decide if a given data set can be adequately modelled by the model. We also discuss the estimation of model parameters based on the WPP plot. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural effects of lipophilic methotrexate conjugates on model phospholipid biomembranes

Lipophilic conjugates of the antitumor drug methotrexate (MTX) with lipoamino acids (LAAs) have been previously described as a tool to enhance MTX passive entrance into cells, overcoming a form of transport resistance which makes tumour cells insensitive to the antimetabolite. A knowledge of the mechanisms of interaction of such lipophilic derivatives with cell membranes could be useful for planning further lipophilic MTX derivatives with an optimal antitumour activity. To this aim, a calorimetric study was undertaken using a biomembrane model made from synthetic 1,2-dipalmitoyl-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DPPC) multilamellar liposomes. The effects of MTX and conjugates on the phase transition of liposomes were investigated using differential scanning calorimetry. The interaction of pure MTX with the liposomes was limited to the outer part of the phospholipid bilayers, due to the polar nature of the drug. Conversely, its lipophilic conjugates showed a hydrophobic kind of interaction, perturbing the packing order of DPPC bilayers. In particular, a reduction of the enthalpy of transition from the gel to the liquid crystal phase of DPPC membranes was observed. Such an effect was related to the structure and mole fraction of the conjugates in the liposomes. The antitumour activity of MTX conjugates was evaluated against cultures of a CCRF-CEM human leukemic T-cell line and a related MTX resistant sub-line. The in vitro cell growth inhibitory activity was higher for bis(tetradecyl) conjugates than for both the other shorter- and longer-chain derivatives. The biological effectiveness of the various MTX derivatives correlated very well with the thermotropic effects observed on the phase transition of DPPC biomembranes. (C), 2001 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

An identifiability analysis of a parent-metabolite pharmacokinetic model for ivabradine.

The paper considers the structural identifiability of a parent–metabolite pharmacokinetic model for ivabradine and one of its metabolites. The model, which is linear, is considered initially for intravenous administration of ivabradine, and then for a combined intravenous and oral administration. In both cases, the model is shown to be unidentifiable. Simplification of the model (for both forms of administration) to that proposed by Duffull et al. (1) results in a globally structurally identifiable model. The analysis could be applied to the modeling of any drug undergoing first-pass metabolism, with plasma concentrations available from drug and metabolite.

Exact quantum phase model for mesoscopic Josephson junctions

Starting from the two-mode Bose-Hubbard model, we derive an exact version of the standard Mathieu equation governing the wave function of a Josephson junction. For a finite number of particles N, we find an additional cos 2 phi term in the potential. We also find that the inner product in this representation is nonlocal in phi. Our model exhibits phenomena, such as pi oscillations, which are not found in the standard phase model, but have been predicted from Gross-Pitaevskii mean-field theory.