Diagnostic accuracy of paediatric echocardiograms interpreted by individuals other than paediatric cardiologists

Objective: To assess the diagnostic error rate among echocardiograms undertaken by individuals other than paediatric cardiologists in our referral area. Methodology: External group: The charts and echocardiographic results of all patients who had undergone outside echocardiograms between January 1996 and December 1999 were reviewed (110). Age at echocardiography, diagnostic complexity, presence of any diagnostic errors and the severity of any diagnostic errors were identified. Internal group: To assess our own error rate, the initial echocardiographic diagnoses of 100 patients undergoing cardiac catheterisation or corrective surgery were compared with the post-catheterisation or postoperative diagnoses. Age and diagnostic complexity were also assessed in the control group. Results: Diagnostic errors occurred in 47/110 patients (44%) of the externally studied group (of which 24% were either major or life threatening) as opposed to 3/100 of the internally studied group, despite the internally studied group being of increased diagnostic complexity. Errors were more common and of increased severity in infants less than 1 month of age but extended throughout all age groups. Major and life threatening errors increased with increasing diagnostic complexity. In the externally studied group, 8/47 errors were patients inappropriately designated as normal. Four of these patients required cardiac surgery or interventional cardiac catheterisation. Conclusions: This study suggests an unacceptably high error rate in paediatric echocardiographic diagnoses by non-paediatric cardiologists throughout all age groups. Such errors are more likely in younger infants and with increasing diagnostic complexity.

Accuracy of frozen section for the operative management of endometrial cancer

Objective To assess the accuracy of intra-operative frozen section reports at identifying the features of high risk uterine disease compared with final histopathology. Design Retrospective study. Methods The records, of 460 patients with uterine cancer registered with the Queensland Centre for Gynaecological Cancer between January 1, 1996 and December 31, 1998 were reviewed. Intra-operative frozen section was undertaken in 260 patients with endometrial adenocarcinoma. Frozen section pathology was compared with the final histopathology reports. Inter-observer reliability was assessed using percentage agreement and kappa statistics. Clinical notes were also reviewed to determine if errors resulted in sub-optimal patient care. Results Respectively, tumour grade and depth of myometrial invasion were accurately reported in 88.6% of cases (expected 61.5%, Kappa 0.70) and 94.7% (expected 53.8%, Kappa 0.89). Errors were predominantly attributable to difficulties with respect to the interpretation of tumour grade. The error resulted in the patient receiving sub-optimal surgical management in only I I cases (5.3%) Conclusion Frozen section is accurate at identifying the features of high risk uterine disease in the setting of endometrial cancer and can play an important role in directing primary operative management.

Integrating technology to improve the efficiency of qualitative data analysis - A note on methods

Qualitative data analysis (QDA) is often a time-consuming and laborious process usually involving the management of large quantities of textual data. Recently developed computer programs offer great advances in the efficiency of the processes of QDA. In this paper we report on an innovative use of a combination of extant computer software technologies to further enhance and simplify QDA. Used in appropriate circumstances, we believe that this innovation greatly enhances the speed with which theoretical and descriptive ideas can be abstracted from rich, complex, and chaotic qualitative data. © 2001 Human Sciences Press, Inc.

Inferring population history from microsatellite and enzyme data in serially introduced cane toads, Bufo marinus

Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.

Detection and description of non-linear interdependence in normal multichannel human EEG data

Objectives: This study examines human scalp electroencephalographic (EEG) data for evidence of non-linear interdependence between posterior channels. The spectral and phase properties of those epochs of EEG exhibiting non-linear interdependence are studied. Methods: Scalp EEG data was collected from 40 healthy subjects. A technique for the detection of non-linear interdependence was applied to 2.048 s segments of posterior bipolar electrode data. Amplitude-adjusted phase-randomized surrogate data was used to statistically determine which EEG epochs exhibited non-linear interdependence. Results: Statistically significant evidence of non-linear interactions were evident in 2.9% (eyes open) to 4.8% (eyes closed) of the epochs. In the eyes-open recordings, these epochs exhibited a peak in the spectral and cross-spectral density functions at about 10 Hz. Two types of EEG epochs are evident in the eyes-closed recordings; one type exhibits a peak in the spectral density and cross-spectrum at 8 Hz. The other type has increased spectral and cross-spectral power across faster frequencies. Epochs identified as exhibiting non-linear interdependence display a tendency towards phase interdependencies across and between a broad range of frequencies. Conclusions: Non-linear interdependence is detectable in a small number of multichannel EEG epochs, and makes a contribution to the alpha rhythm. Non-linear interdependence produces spatially distributed activity that exhibits phase synchronization between oscillations present at different frequencies. The possible physiological significance of these findings are discussed with reference to the dynamical properties of neural systems and the role of synchronous activity in the neocortex. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data

Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.

Relationship of high energy expenditure and variation in dietary intake with reporting accuracy on 7 day food records and diet histories in a group of healthy adult volunteers

Objectives: To assess the accuracy of reporting from both a diet history and food record and identify some of the characteristics of more accurate reporters in a group of healthy adult volunteers for an energy balance study. Design: Prospective measurements in free-living people. Setting: Wollongong, Australia. Subjects: Fifteen healthy volunteers (seven male, eight female; aged 22 -59 y; body mass index (BMI) 19 - 33 kg/m(2)) from the local community in the city of Wollongong, Australia. Interventions: Measurement of energy intake via diet history interview and 7 day food records, total energy expenditure by the doubly labelled water technique over 14 days, physical activity by questionnaire, and body fat by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results: Increased misreporting of energy intake was associated with increased energy expenditure (r = 0.90, P < 0.0001, diet history; r(s)=0.79, P=0.0005, food records) but was not associated with age, sex, BMI or body fat. Range in number of recorded dinner foods correlated positively with energy expenditure (r(s)=0.63, P=0.01) and degree of misreporting (r(s)=0.71, P=0.003, diet history; r(s)=0.63, P=0.01, food records). Variation in energy intake at dinner and over the whole day identified by the food records correlated positively with energy expenditure (r=0.58, P = 0.02) and misreporting on the diet history (r=0.62, P=0.01). Conclusions: Subjects who are highly active or who have variable dietary and exercise behaviour may be less accurate in reporting dietary intake. Our findings indicate that it may be necessary to screen for these characteristics in studies where accuracy of reporting at an individual level is critical. Sponsorship: The study was supported in part by Australian Research Council funds made available through the University of Wollongong.

Energy cost of activity assessed by indirect calorimetry and a (CO2)-C-13 breath test

Purpose: The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of a (CO2)-C-13 breath test for the prediction of short-duration energy expenditure. Methods: Eight healthy volunteers walked at 1.5 km.h(-1) for 60 min followed by 60-min recovery. During this time, the energy cost of physical activity was measured via respiratory calorimetry and a C-13 bicarbonate breath test. A further eight subjects were tested using the same two methods during a 60-min cycle at 0.5 kp. 30 ipm followed by a 60-min recovery. The rate of appearance of (CO2)-C-13, (RaCO2) was measured and the mean ratio, (V) over dot CO2/RaCO2 was used to calculate energy expenditure using the isotopic approach. Results: As would be expected, there was a significant difference in the energy cost of walking and cycling using both methods (P < 0.05). However. no significant differences were observed between respiratory calorimetry and the isotope method for measurement of energy expenditure while walking or cycling. Conclusions: These data suggest that the C-13 breath test is a valid method that can be used to measure the energy cost of short duration physical activity in a field setting.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Computation of the linear elastic properties of random porous materials with a wide variety of microstructure

A finite-element method is used to study the elastic properties of random three-dimensional porous materials with highly interconnected pores. We show that Young's modulus, E, is practically independent of Poisson's ratio of the solid phase, nu(s), over the entire solid fraction range, and Poisson's ratio, nu, becomes independent of nu(s) as the percolation threshold is approached. We represent this behaviour of nu in a flow diagram. This interesting but approximate behaviour is very similar to the exactly known behaviour in two-dimensional porous materials. In addition, the behaviour of nu versus nu(s) appears to imply that information in the dilute porosity limit can affect behaviour in the percolation threshold limit. We summarize the finite-element results in terms of simple structure-property relations, instead of tables of data, to make it easier to apply the computational results. Without using accurate numerical computations, one is limited to various effective medium theories and rigorous approximations like bounds and expansions. The accuracy of these equations is unknown for general porous media. To verify a particular theory it is important to check that it predicts both isotropic elastic moduli, i.e. prediction of Young's modulus alone is necessary but not sufficient. The subtleties of Poisson's ratio behaviour actually provide a very effective method for showing differences between the theories and demonstrating their ranges of validity. We find that for moderate- to high-porosity materials, none of the analytical theories is accurate and, at present, numerical techniques must be relied upon.