Field test of a model of migration of moths (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in inland Australia

A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Growth and hard tissue remodelling in the dentition of the Australian lungfish, Neoceratodus forsteri (Osteichthyes: Dipnoi)

The extant lungfish, including three genera, the Australian, South American and African lungfishes, retain a dentition that appeared first in the Devonian, in some of the oldest members of this group. The dentition consists of permanent tooth plates with persistent cusps that appear early in development of the fish. The cusps, separate early in development, form ridges that are arranged in a radiating pattern, and fusion of the cusps to each other and to the underlying jaw bone produces a tooth plate. The lungfish dentition is based on a template of mantle dentine that surrounds bone trabeculae enclosed in the tooth plate. The mantle layer is covered by enamel. In most derived dipnoans, this framework encloses two further forms of dentine, known as interdenteonal and circumdenteonal dentines. The tooth plates grow in area and in depth without evidence of macroscopic resorption of dentines or of enamel. Increase in size and changes in shape of lungfish tooth plates is actually achieved by a process involving microscopic remodelling of the bone contained within the margin of each tooth plate, and the later addition of new dentines and enamel within and around the bone. This is accomplished without creating weakness in the structural integrity of the tooth plate and bone complex, and proceeds in line with growth and remodelling of the jaw bones attached to the tooth plates.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

A survey of dental and oral trauma in south-east Queensland during 1998

Background: This project investigated the aetiology of dental and oral trauma in a population in southeast Queensland. The literature shows there is a lack of dental trauma studies which are representative of the general Australian population. Method: Twelve suburbs in the south-east district of Queensland were randomly selected according to population density in these suburbs for each 25th percentile. All dental clinics in these suburbs were eligible to participate. Patients presenting with dental and oral trauma were eligible to participate. Results: A total of 197 patients presented with dental/oral trauma over a 12 month period. The age of patients ranged from 1-64 years whilst the most frequently presenting age group was 6-10 years. There was a total of 363 injured teeth with an average of 1.8 injured teeth per patient. Males significantly outnumbered females in the incidence of trauma. Conclusions: The highest frequency of trauma occurred in the 6-10 year age group. Most injuries in this group occurred while playing or riding bicycles. In the next most prevalent trauma group, 16-20 years, trauma occurred as a result of fighting and playing sport. Overall, males significantly outnumbered females by approximately 1.8:1.0. The majority of injuries in the deciduous dentition were to periodontal tissues. In the secondary dentition most injuries were to hard dental tissue and pulp.

The validity and heritability of self-report osteoarthritis in an Australian older twin sample

In order to investigate the genetic and environmental antecedents of osteoarthritis (CA), self-report measures of joint pain, stiffness and swelling were obtained from a population-based sample of 1242 twin pairs over 50 years of age. In order to provide validation for these self-report measures, a subsample of 118 twin pairs were examined according to the American College of Rheumatology clinical and radiographic criteria for the classification of osteoarthritis. A variety of statistical methods were employed to identify the model derived from self-report variables which would provide optimal prediction of these standardised assessments, and structural equation modelling was used to determine the relative influences of genetic and environmental influences on the development of osteoarthritis. Significant genetic effects were found to contribute to osteoarthritis of the hands, hips and knees in women, with heritability estimates ranging from 30-46% depending on the site. In addition, the additive genetic effects contributing to osteoarthritis in various parts of the body were confirmed to be the same. Statistically significant familial aggregation of osteoarthritis in men was also observed, but it was not possible to determine whether this was due to genetic or shared environmental effects.

Dental erosion in asthma: A case-control study from south east Queensland

Background: Asthma medication places patients at risk of dental erosion by reducing salivary protection against extrinsic or intrinsic acids. But patterns of lesions in asthmatics may differ from patterns in non-asthmatics, because gastro-oesophageal reflux (GOR) is found in 60 per cent of asthmatics. Methods: The lesions in 44 asthma cases were compared to those of age and sex match controls with no history of asthma or medications drawn from the dental records of 423 patients referred concerning excessive tooth wear. The subjects were 70 males age range 15 to 55 years and 18 females age range 18 to 45. Anamnestic clinical data were compared between the two groups. Models of all 88 subjects were examined by light microscopy, and wear patterns were recorded on permanent central incisor, canine, premolar and first molar teeth. Results: Clinical differences were a higher incidence of tooth hypersensitivity; xerostomia, salivary gland abnormalities, gastric complaints, and self induced vomiting in the cases. No differences were found between the cases and controls on citrus fruit and acid soft drink consumption. More occlusal erosion sites were found in cases, whereas more attrition sites were found in the controls. There were no significant differences in palatal erosion on maxillary anterior teeth found between cases and controls. Lingual erosion of the mandibular incisors, found only in GOR patients, was not observed. Conclusions: A higher incidence of erosion was found in asthmatics. Gastro-oesophageal reflux symptoms were not associated with the sign of lingual mandibular incisor erosion. The clinical significance is that asthmatics are at risk of dental erosion from extrinsic acid, but GOR does not appear to contribute in a site-specific manner.

A test of the hypothesis of ecological equivalence in an Australian subtropical rain forest

We tested the hypothesis that tree species in a subtropical rain forest in south-east Queensland are ecologically equivalent and therefore have identical environmental requirements for their regeneration. We assessed the evidence that juveniles of species differed in their distributions in treefall gap microsites and along gradients of light availability, soil pH, soil PO4-P availability and soil NO3-N availability. Pairwise comparisons were made on a subset of the common species selected on the basis that they showed a relatively high level of positive association, and would therefore, a priori, be expected to have similar regeneration requirements. Detailed comparisons between the species failed to demonstrate evidence for species differentiation with respect to their tolerance of the disturbance associated with gap microsites or to the gradient of NO3-N availability. However, species differed markedly in their distributions along the soil pH gradient and along the gradients of light availability and soil PO4-P availability. The overall level of ecological differentiation between the species is high: seven out of the 10 possible species pairings showed evidence for ecological differentiation. Such niche differentiation amongst the juveniles of tree species may play an important role in maintaining the species richness of rain-forest communities.

Comparative influence of forest management and habitat structural factors on the abundances of hollow-nesting bird species in subtropical Australian eucalypt forest

We examined the impact of single-tree selective logging and fuel reduction bums on the abundance of hollow-nesting bird species at a regional scale in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Data were collected on species abundance and habitat structure of dry sclerophyll production forest at 36 sites with known logging and fire histories. Sixteen bird species were recorded with most being resident, territorial, obligate hollow nesters that used hollows that were either small (18 cm diameter). Species densities were typically low, but combinations of two forest management and three habitat structural variables influenced the abundances of eight bird species in different and sometimes conflicting ways. The results suggest that habitat tree management for biodiversity in production forests cannot depend upon habitat structural characteristics alone. Management histories appear to have independent influence (on some bird species) that are distinguishable from their impacts on habitat structure per se. Rather than managing to maximize species abundances to maintain biodiversity, we may be better off managing to avoid extinctions of populations by identifying thresholds of acceptable fluctuations in populations of not only hollow-nesting birds but other forest dependent wildlife relative to scientifically valid forest management and habitat structural surrogates.

Spermatozoal morphology of the freshwater anomuran Aegla longirostri Bond-Buckup & Buckup, 1994 (Crustacea : Decapoda : Aeglidae) from South America

Unique sperm morphology is described for Aegla longirostri Bond-Buckup & Buckup, 1994. a representative of the freshwater anomuran family Aeglidae from South America. Comparisons of the spermatozoal ultrastructure of this species with that described for other anomurans indicate that A. longirostri has a distinct suite of spermatozoal characters. Within the Anomura, the aeglids share more spermatozoal characters with the superfamily Lomoidea. represented by the monotypic Australian endemic genus, Lomis, than to any previously described representative from the Galatheoidea, Hippoidea. or Paguroidea. A more basal ancestry, with an independent evolutionary lineage. within the Anomura is Postulated for the Aeglidae. A Superficial resemblance of the spermatozoal ultrastructure of A. longirostri to that described for a palinurid lobster, Jasus, and a thalassinidean mud shrimp, Neaxius, is also noted.

Productivity growth in Australian manufacturing sector: some new evidence

This article examines the productivity performance of Australia's manufacturing sector by decomposing its output growth into input growth, technological progress and gains in technical efficiency. This three-way decomposition is done with an improved version of the stochastic frontier model using eight, two-digit industry level data from 1968/9 to 1994/5. Empirical evidence shows that input growth fueled output growth from 1968/9 to 1973/4, but since then, total factor productivity (TFP) growth has been the main contributor of output growth. While the trend of TFP growth was found to be promising for most industries with positive and increasing technological progress, the negative gains from technical efficiency over time is however cause for concern.

Monitoring the composition and form of urban environments based on the vegetation-impervious surface-soil (VIS) model by sub-pixel analysis techniques

The majority of the world's population now resides in urban environments and information on the internal composition and dynamics of these environments is essential to enable preservation of certain standards of living. Remotely sensed data, especially the global coverage of moderate spatial resolution satellites such as Landsat, Indian Resource Satellite and Systeme Pour I'Observation de la Terre (SPOT), offer a highly useful data source for mapping the composition of these cities and examining their changes over time. The utility and range of applications for remotely sensed data in urban environments could be improved with a more appropriate conceptual model relating urban environments to the sampling resolutions of imaging sensors and processing routines. Hence, the aim of this work was to take the Vegetation-Impervious surface-Soil (VIS) model of urban composition and match it with the most appropriate image processing methodology to deliver information on VIS composition for urban environments. Several approaches were evaluated for mapping the urban composition of Brisbane city (south-cast Queensland, Australia) using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper data and 1:5000 aerial photographs. The methods evaluated were: image classification; interpretation of aerial photographs; and constrained linear mixture analysis. Over 900 reference sample points on four transects were extracted from the aerial photographs and used as a basis to check output of the classification and mixture analysis. Distinctive zonations of VIS related to urban composition were found in the per-pixel classification and aggregated air-photo interpretation; however, significant spectral confusion also resulted between classes. In contrast, the VIS fraction images produced from the mixture analysis enabled distinctive densities of commercial, industrial and residential zones within the city to be clearly defined, based on their relative amount of vegetation cover. The soil fraction image served as an index for areas being (re)developed. The logical match of a low (L)-resolution, spectral mixture analysis approach with the moderate spatial resolution image data, ensured the processing model matched the spectrally heterogeneous nature of the urban environments at the scale of Landsat Thematic Mapper data.