Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A survey of Australian consumers' attitudes towards UHT milk

A telephone survey was conducted in Melbourne and Brisbane to obtain a profile of milk consumption in Australia and determine consumers' attitudes regarding UHT milk. It was anticipated that this survey would reveal the reasons for the low level of UHT milk consumption in Australia. Pasteurised milk was the main milk type used by more than 80% of respondents. For UHT milk this figure was much lower (approximately 10%), even though two thirds of respondents had tried UHT milk. Factors that were found to influence UHT milk consumption included existing milk consumption habits, consumer perception, flavour and price. The majority of non-users of UHT milk stated habit of using other milk type as their main reason for not using UHT milk. Other reasons included poor nutritional value, poor flavour and not real/pure milk, indicating a negative consumer perception of the product. The flavour of UHT milk was identified as a problem, with nearly half of UHT milk users considering it to be worse than the flavour of pasteurised milk. However, a small proportion of UHT milk users preferred the flavour of UHT milk, with the majority of them stating that it was creamier, richer and/or stronger than the flavour of pasteurised milk. Prior to post-farmgate deregulation, price was shown to discourage consumers from using UHT milk. At the time of the survey, post-farmgate prices in Victoria were deregulated resulting in UHT milk being priced below that of pasteurised milk in some instances. This was believed to contribute to a significantly higher market share of the product in Melbourne than in Brisbane.

Characterisation of pore structure of carbon adsorbents using regularisation procedure

The constrained regularisation procedure was applied to compute the pore size distributions (PSDs, f(x)) for a variety of activated carbons using overall adsorption equation based on the combination of the Kelvin equation and the statistical adsorbed film thickness. The impact of the boundary values of relative nitrogen pressure p/p(0) was analysed on the basis of the corresponding alterations in the PSDs. Changes in microporosity and mesoporosity of activated carbons can be described adequately only when the range of p/p(0) is as wide as possible, as at a high initial p/p(0) value, the f(x) curves can be broadened with shifted maxima especially for micropores and narrow mesopores. Comparative analysis of the PSDs and the adsorption potential, adsorption energy and fractal dimension distributions gives useful information on the complete description of the adsorbent characteristics. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Carapace dentition patterns, morphometrics and allozyme differentiation amongst two toothed freshwater crab species (Potamonautes warreni and P-unispinus) (Decapoda : Brachyura : Potamonautidae) from river systems in South Africa

The taxonomic relationship between two toothed South African river crabs, Potamonautes warreni and P. unispinus, is unclear. The problem stems from the widespread variation in carapace dentition patterns amongst P. warreni individuals over its biogeographic range, where single toothed individuals may appear similar in carapace morphology to P. unispinus. Ten populations of P. warreni and 18 populations of P. unispinus were collected and the morphometric and genetic differentiation between the two taxa quantified. Patterns of morphometric and genetic variation were examined using multivariate statistics and protein gel electrophoresis, respectively. Principal component analyses of carapace characters showed that the two species are morphologically indistinguishable. However, discriminate functions analyses and additional statistical results corroborate the morphological distinction between the two taxa. Allozyme electrophoresis of 17 protein coding loci, indicated a close genetic similarity between the two species (I = 0.92). A fixed allelic difference at one locus (LT-2) and extensive genetic variability at another locus (PGM-1) indicate that two gene pools are present and that the two taxa are genetically isolated. Intraspecific genetic I values for both species were > 0.97 and indicated no apparent genetic structuring on a micro or macro-geographic scale. The variation in carapace dentition among P. warreni populations possesses no genetic basis and may possibly toe the product of ecogenesis. The value of dentition patterns in the systematics of river crabs is discussed. Dentition patterns among river crab species appear to be conserved and reliable as species specific diagnostic markers, but should ideally be used in combination with other morphological data sets and genetic evidence.

Can long-distance dispersal be inferred from the New Zealand plant fossil record?

New Zealand is generally thought to have been physically isolated from the rest of the world for over 60 million years. But physical isolation may not mean biotic isolation, at least on the time scale of millions of years. Are New Zealand's present complement of plants the direct descendants of what originally rafted from Gondwana? Or has there been total extinction of this initial flora with replacement through long-distance dispersal (a complete biotic turnover)? These are two possible extremes which have come under recent discussion. Can the fossil record be used to decide the relative importance of the two endpoints, or is it simply too incomplete and too dependent on factors of chance? This paper suggests two approaches to the problem-the use of statistics to apply levels of confidence to first appearances in the fossil record and the analysis of trends based on the entire palynorecord. Statistics can suggest that the first appearance of a taxon was after New Zealand broke away from Gondwana-as long as the first appearance in the record was not due to an increase in biomass from an initially rare state. Two observations can be drawn from the overall palynorecord that are independent of changes in biomass: (1) The first appearance of palynotaxa common to both Australia and New Zealand is decidedly non-random. Most taxa occur first in Australia. This suggests a bias in air or water transport from west to east. (2) The percentage of endemic palynospecies in New Zealand shows no simple correlation with the time New Zealand drifted into isolation. The conifer macrorecord also hints at complete turnover since the Cretaceous.

Tracks of Change - the changing value commitments of non-profit organisations

If nonprofit organisations are moving towards more market oriented ways of operating, is this changing the traditional meanings and value of commitments associated with their activities? This article discusses the findings of a research project conducted by the University of Queensland into the impact that changes in government policies are having on the community services sector, in particular disability services. The values and belief systems traditionally associated with the sector were found to be fundamentally unaltered.

Spontaneous-combustion propensity of New Zealand coals under adiabatic conditions

Pulverised New Zealand coal samples have been tested from an initial temperature of 40 degreesC and reacted adiabatisally in an oven with oxygen to provide a full temperature history of auto-oxidation up to the self-sustained process of combustion. This procedure produces a self-heating rate index, R-70, calculated as the ratio of the time taken to reach 70 degreesC (degreesC/h). The R-70 index is a measure of the coal's propensity to spontaneous combustion. R-70 values for New Zealand coals are much higher than any previously published results. They show a rank dependence, whereby subbituminous coals have the highest propensity to spontaneous combustion (14.91-17.23 degreesC/h). A lignite sample has an R-70 value of 7.76 degreesC/h, and high-volatile bituminous B coals have R-70 values of 0.31-2.23 degreesC/h. Samples stored for 2 years show the same rank trend. The nature of this trend is most likely a function of the internal surface area of the coal that governs the available sites for oxidation. Calculating the Suggate rank; for any New Zealand coal can be used to rare its propensity to spontaneous combustion. Resin bodies in the subbituminous coal show no propensity to spontaneous combustion. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Relationships between crude protein and mineral concentrations in alfalfa and value of alfalfa silage as a mineral source for periparturient cows

One hundred and eight samples from three cultivars of alfalfa were obtained from three cuttings in 1996-1998 to evaluate the relationship between crude protein (CP) and mineral concentrations of alfalfa with cutting and maturation. The CP content drastically decreased from 27.9 to 11.4% on DM with maturity. Highly positive correlations were observed between CP and K in the first and the second cutting of alfalfa. The Ca content remained almost constant throughout the growth period. Four multiparous Holstein cows were assigned an alfalfa silage diet or an orchardgrass silage diet from 3 weeks prepartum to 1 week postpartum to examine the effect on the mineral balance. In the prepartum and postpartum diet, the roughage to concentrate ratio was 70:30 and 50:50, with alfalfa being 50 and 100% of the roughage, respectively. The alfalfa contained 1.93% of K. No metabolic disorders occurred, but the body weight decreased drastically from 1 to 6 days postpartum with each diet because of the high milk production immediately after the parturition. Positive retention of N, Ca, P, Mg, and K was observed prepartum, whereas the cows had negative N and mineral retention from 2 to 4 days postpartum. The Ca and P absorption, and Mg retention of cows with the alfalfa diet were higher than with the grass diet. The plasma Ca and inorganic P were not affected by diet, but the plasma PTH at parturition and plasma hydroxyproline from 1 week prepartum to 1 week postpartum were higher with the alfalfa diet. These results suggest that the low K alfalfa is suitable not only to prevent the incidence of milk fever but also to increase Ca, P and Mg utilization of periparturient cows, but the mineral supplementation is needed for the postpartum cows immediately after the parturition. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained, (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Brief opportunistic intervention: The role of psychologists in initiating self-change amongst problem drinkers

Excessive consumption of alcohol is a serious public health problem. While intensive treatments are suitable for those who are physically dependent on alcohol, they are not cost-effective options for the vast majority of problem drinkers who are not dependent. There is good evidence that brief interventions are effective in reducing overall alcohol consumption, alcohol-related problems, and health-care utilisation among nondependent problem drinkers. Psychologists are in an ideal position to opportunistically detect people who drink excessively and to offer them brief advice to reduce their drinking. In this paper we outline the process involved in providing brief opportunistic screening and intervention for problem drinkers. We also discuss methods that psychologists can employ if a client is not ready to reduce drinking, or is ambivalent about change. Depending on the client's level of motivation to change, psychologists can engage in either an education-clarification approach, a commitment-enhancement approach, or a skills-training approach. Routine engagement in opportunistic intervention is an important public-health approach to reducing alcohol-related harm in the community.