Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Modelling the size of the crushed zone around a blasthole

A new model to predict the extent of crushing around a blasthole is presented. The model is based on the back-analysis of a comprehensive experimental program that included the direct measurement of the zone of crushing from 92 blasting tests on concrete blocks using two commercial explosives. The concrete blocks varied from low, medium to high strength and measured 1.5 in in length, 1.0 m in width and 1.1 m in height. A dimensionless parameter called the crushing zone index (CZI) is introduced. This index measures the crushing potential of a charged blasthole and is a function of the borehole pressure, the unconfined compressive strength of the rock material, dynamic Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. It is shown that the radius of crushing is a function of the CZI and the blasthole radius. A good correlation between the new model and measured results was obtained. A number of previously proposed models could not approximate the conditions measured in the experimental work and there are noted discrepancies between the different approaches reviewed, particularly for smaller diameter holes and low strength rock conditions. The new model has been verified with full scale tests reported in the literature. Results from this validation and model evaluations show its applicability to production blasting. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capillaries within compartments: Microvascular interpretation of dynamic positron emission tomography data

Measurement of exchange of substances between blood and tissue has been a long-lasting challenge to physiologists, and considerable theoretical and experimental accomplishments were achieved before the development of the positron emission tomography (PET). Today, when modeling data from modern PET scanners, little use is made of earlier microvascular research in the compartmental models, which have become the standard model by which the vast majority of dynamic PET data are analysed. However, modern PET scanners provide data with a sufficient temporal resolution and good counting statistics to allow estimation of parameters in models with more physiological realism. We explore the standard compartmental model and find that incorporation of blood flow leads to paradoxes, such as kinetic rate constants being time-dependent, and tracers being cleared from a capillary faster than they can be supplied by blood flow. The inability of the standard model to incorporate blood flow consequently raises a need for models that include more physiology, and we develop microvascular models which remove the inconsistencies. The microvascular models can be regarded as a revision of the input function. Whereas the standard model uses the organ inlet concentration as the concentration throughout the vascular compartment, we consider models that make use of spatial averaging of the concentrations in the capillary volume, which is what the PET scanner actually registers. The microvascular models are developed for both single- and multi-capillary systems and include effects of non-exchanging vessels. They are suitable for analysing dynamic PET data from any capillary bed using either intravascular or diffusible tracers, in terms of physiological parameters which include regional blood flow. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intracellular sorting and transport of proteins

The secretory and endocytic pathways of eukaryotic organelles consist of multiple compartments, each with a unique set of proteins and lipids. Specific transport mechanisms are required to direct molecules to defined locations and to ensure that the identity, and hence function, of individual compartments are maintained. The localisation of proteins to specific membranes is complex and involves multiple interactions. The recent dramatic advances in understanding the molecular mechanisms of membrane transport has been due to the application of a multi-disciplinary approach, intergrating membrane biology, genetics, imaging, protein and lipid biochemistry and structural biology. The aim of this review is to summarise the general principles of protein sorting in the secretory and endocytic pathways and to highlight the dynamic nature of these processes. The molecular mechanisms involved in this transport along the secretory and endocytic pathways are discussed along with the signals responsible for targeting proteins to different intracellular locations. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using the flexibility index to compare batch and continuous activated sludge processes

This paper considers the question of which is better: the batch or the continuous activated sludge processes? It is an important question because dissension still exists in the wastewater industry as to the relative merits of each of the processes. A review of perceived differences in the processes from the point of view of two related disciplines, process engineering and biotechnology, is presented together with the results of previous comparative studies. These reviews highlight possible areas where more understanding is required. This is provided in the paper by application of the flexibility index to two case studies. The flexibility index is a useful process design tool that measures the ability of the process to cope with long term changes in operation.

Dynamic stability of laminated FGM plates based on higher-order shear deformation theory

This paper conducts a dynamic stability analysis of symmetrically laminated FGM rectangular plates with general out-of-plane supporting conditions, subjected to a uniaxial periodic in-plane load and undergoing uniform temperature change. Theoretical formulations are based on Reddy's third-order shear deformation plate theory, and account for the temperature dependence of material properties. A semi-analytical Galerkin-differential quadrature approach is employed to convert the governing equations into a linear system of Mathieu-Hill equations from which the boundary points on the unstable regions are determined by Bolotin's method. Free vibration and bifurcation buckling are also discussed as subset problems. Numerical results are presented in both dimensionless tabular and graphical forms for laminated plates with FGM layers made of silicon nitride and stainless steel. The influences of various parameters such as material composition, layer thickness ratio, temperature change, static load level, boundary constraints on the dynamic stability, buckling and vibration frequencies are examined in detail through parametric studies.

Online titrimetric and off-gas analysis for examining nitrification processes in wastewater treatment

The two steps of nitrification, namely the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite and nitrite to nitrate, often need to be considered separately in process studies. For a detailed examination, it is desirable to monitor the two-step sequence using online measurements. In this paper, the use of online titrimetric and off-gas analysis (TOGA) methods for the examination of the process is presented. Using the known reaction stoichiometry, combination of the measured signals (rates of hydrogen ion production, oxygen uptake and carbon dioxide transfer) allows the determination of the three key process rates, namely the ammonia consumption rate, the nitrite accumulation rate and the nitrate production rate. Individual reaction rates determined with the TOGA sensor under a number of operation conditions are presented. The rates calculated directly from the measured signals are compared with those obtained from offline liquid sample analysis. Statistical analysis confirms that the results from the two approaches match well. This result could not have been guaranteed using alternative online methods. As a case study, the influences of pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) on nitrite accumulation are tested using the proposed method. It is shown that nitrite accumulation decreased with increasing DO and pH. Possible reasons for these observations are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Putting the group back into unions: A social psychological contribution to understanding union support

Industrial relations research that attempts to grapple with individuals' union-related sentiments and activities often draws on one of two traditions of psychological research—the individual-level factors tradition (for example, personality and attitude-behaviour relations) and the social context tradition (for example, frustration-aggression and relative deprivation). This paper provides an overview of research conducted from within these traditions to explain union-related phenomena and identifies some of the limitations that arise as a consequence of a shared tendency to treat people in an atomistic fashion. The paper argues for an understanding of the psychological processes that underpin group-based action. To this end, it elaborates a theoretical framework based on social identity theory and self-categorisation theory that would allow us to examine the dynamic interplay between the individual, their cognitions and their environment. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of a specific case of union mobilisation, to indicate how this theoretical framework might aid empirical analysis.