Risk factors for schizophrenia. Follow-up data from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study

This paper updates single risk factors identified by the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study up to the end of year 2001 or age 34. Impaired performance (e.g., delayed motor or intellectual development) or adverse exposures (e.g., pregnancy and birth complications, central nervous system diseases) are associated with an increased risk for schizophrenia. However, upper social class girls and clever schoolboys also have an increased risk to develop schizophrenia, contrasted to their peers. Individuals who subsequently develop schizophrenia follow a developmental trajectory that partly and subtly differs from that of the general population; this trajectory lacks flexibility and responsiveness compared to control subjects, at least in the early stages. We propose a descriptive, lifespan, multilevel systems model on the development and course of schizophrenia.

Optimising profitability and environmental trade-offs in managing cropping systems using differential evolution

Whilst traditional optimisation techniques based on mathematical programming techniques are in common use, they suffer from their inability to explore the complexity of decision problems addressed using agricultural system models. In these models, the full decision space is usually very large while the solution space is characterized by many local optima. Methods to search such large decision spaces rely on effective sampling of the problem domain. Nevertheless, problem reduction based on insight into agronomic relations and farming practice is necessary to safeguard computational feasibility. Here, we present a global search approach based on an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA). We introduce a multi-objective evaluation technique within this EA framework, linking the optimisation procedure to the APSIM cropping systems model. The approach addresses the issue of system management when faced with a trade-off between economic and ecological consequences.

Classification and analysis of integrating frameworks in multiscale modelling

Chemical engineers are turning to multiscale modelling to extend traditional modelling approaches into new application areas and to achieve higher levels of detail and accuracy. There is, however, little advice available on the best strategy to use in constructing a multiscale model. This paper presents a starting point for the systematic analysis of multiscale models by defining several integrating frameworks for linking models at different scales. It briefly explores how the nature of the information flow between the models at the different scales is influenced by the choice of framework, and presents some restrictions on model-framework compatibility. The concepts are illustrated with reference to the modelling of a catalytic packed bed reactor. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A work domain analysis framework for modelling intensive care unit patients

Work domain analysis (WDA) has been applied to a range of complex work domains, but few WDAs have been undertaken in medical contexts. One pioneering effort suggested that clinical abstraction is not based on means-ends relations, whereas another effort downplayed the role of bio-regulatory mechanisms. In this paper it is argued that bio-regulatory mechanisms that govern physiological behaviour must be part of WDA models of patients as the systems at the core of intensive care units. Furthermore it is argued that because the inner functioning of patients is not completely known, clinical abstraction is based on hypothetico-deductive abstract reasoning. This paper presents an alternative modelling framework that conforms to the broader aspirations of WDA. A modified version of the viable systems model is used to represent the patient system as a nested dissipative structure while aspects of the recognition primed decision model are used to represent the information resources available to clinicians in ways that support lsquoif...thenrsquo conceptual relations. These two frameworks come together to form the recursive diagnostic framework, which may provide a more appropriate foundation for information display design in the intensive care unit.

The impact of organizational culture and reshaping capabilities on change implementation success: The mediating role of readiness for change

It was hypothesized that employees' perceptions of an organizational culture strong in human relations values and open systems values would be associated with heightened levels of readiness for change which, in turn, would be predictive of change implementation success. Similarly, it was predicted that reshaping capabilities would lead to change implementation success, via its effects on employees' perceptions of readiness for change. Using a temporal research design, these propositions were tested for 67 employees working in a state government department who were about to undergo the implementation of a new end-user computing system in their workplace. Change implementation success was operationalized as user satisfaction and system usage. There was evidence to suggest that employees who perceived strong human relations values in their division at Time 1 reported higher levels of readiness for change at pre-implementation which, in turn, predicted system usage at Time 2. In addition, readiness for change mediated the relationship between reshaping capabilities and system usage. Analyses also revealed that pre-implementation levels of readiness for change exerted a positive main effect on employees' satisfaction with the system's accuracy, user friendliness, and formatting functions at post-implementation. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the readiness for change literature, and in relation to the practical importance of developing positive change attitudes among employees if change initiatives are to be successful.

The effect of pH on the competition between polyphosphate-accumulating organisms and glycogen-accumulating organisms

In enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) processes, glycogen-accumulating organisms (GAOs) may compete with polyphosphate-accumulating organisms (PAOs) for the often-limited carbon substrates, potentially resulting in disturbances to phosphorus removal. A detailed investigation of the effect of pH on the competition between PAOs and GAOs is reported in this study. The results show that a high external pH (similar to 8) provided PAOs with an advantage over GAOs in EBPR systems. The phosphorus removal performance improved due to a population shift favouring PAOs over GAOs, which was shown through both chemical and microbiological methods. Two lab-scale reactors fed with propionate as the carbon source were subjected to an increase in pH from 7 to 8. The phosphorus removal and PAO population (as measured by quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridisation analysis of Candidatus Accumulibacter phosphatis) increased in each system, where the PAOs appeared to out-compete a group of Alphaproteobacteria GAOs. A considerable improvement in the P removal was also observed in an acetate fed reactor, where the GAO population (primarily Candidatus Competibacter phosphatis) decreased substantially after a similar increase in the pH. The results from this study suggest that pH could be used as a control parameter to reduce the undesirable proliferation of GAOs and improve phosphorus removal in EBPR systems. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do organizational climate and competitive strategy moderate the relationship between human resource management and productivity?

This study examined whether the effectiveness of human resource management (HRM)practices is contingent on organizational climate and competitive strategy The concepts of internol and external fit suggest that the positive relationship between HRM and subsequent productivity will be stronger for firms with a positive organizational climate and for firms using differentiation strategies. Resource allocation theories of motivation, on the other hand, predict that the relationship between HRM and productivity will be stronger for firms with a poor climate because employees working in these firms should have the greatest amount of spare capacity. The results supported the resource allocation argument.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development

Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spin exchange and superconductivity in a t-J(')-V model for two-dimensional quarter-filled systems

The effect of antiferromagnetic spin fluctuations on two-dimensional quarter-filled systems is studied theoretically. An effective t-J(')-V model on a square lattice which accounts for checkerboard charge fluctuations and next-nearest-neighbor antiferromagnetic spin fluctuations is considered. From calculations based on large-N theory on this model it is found that the exchange interaction J(') increases the attraction between electrons in the d(xy) channel only, so that both charge and spin fluctuations work cooperatively to produce d(xy) pairing.

Studies on the membrane interactions of the cyclotides kalata B1 and kalata B6 on model membrane systems by surface plasmon resonance

In this study we have demonstrated the interactions of kalata B1 and its naturally occurring analogue kalata B6 with five model lipid membranes and have analyzed the binding kinetics using surface plasmon resonance. Two kalata peptides showed a higher affinity for the phosphatidylethanolamine-containing membranes, indicating that the peptides would bind selectively to bacterial membranes. Also we have optimized the procedure for the immobilization of five liposome mixtures and have shown that the procedure provides reproducible levels of immobilized liposomes and could be used to screen the selective binding of putative antimicrobial peptides to model mammalian or microbial phospholipid membranes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a quasi-chemical viscosity model for fully liquid slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-MgO-SiO2 system. Part 1. Description of the model and its application to the MgO, MgO-SiO2, Al2O3-MgO and CaO-MgO sub-systems

A structurally-based quasi-chemical viscosity model for fully liquid slags in the Al2O3 CaO-'FeO'-MgO-SiO2 system has been developed. The model links the slag viscosities to the internal structures of the melts through the concentrations of various Si0.5O, Me2/nn+O and Me1/nn+Si0.25O viscous flow structural units. The concentrations of these structural units are derived from a quasi-chemical thermodynamic model of the system. The model described in this series of papers enables the viscosities of liquid slags to be predicted within experimental uncertainties over the whole range of temperatures and compositions in the Al2O3 CaOMgO-SiO2 system.