A Flow-Through Analysis of the US Lodging Industry During the Great Recession

Purpose – The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate the “flow-through” or relationship between top-line measures of hotel operating performance (occupancy, average daily rate and revenue per available room) and bottom-line measures of profitability (gross operating profit and net operating income), before and during the recent great recession. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses data provided by PKF Hospitality Research for the period from 2007-2009. A total of 714 hotels were analyzed and various top-line and bottom-line profitability changes were computed using both absolute levels and percentages. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between top and bottom line measures, and to derive flow-through ratios. Findings – The results show that average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy are significantly and positively related to gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) and net operating income per available room (NOIPAR). The evidence indicates that ADR, rather than occupancy, appears to be the stronger predictor and better measure of RevPAR growth and bottom-line profitability. The correlations and explained variances are also higher than those reported in prior research. Flow-through ratios range between 1.83 and 1.91 for NOIPAR, and between 1.55 and 1.65 for GOPPAR, across all chain-scales. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of this study include the limited number of years in the study period, limited number of hotels in a competitive set, and self-selection of hotels by the researchers. Practical implications – While ADR and occupancy work in combination to drive profitability, the authors' study shows that ADR is the stronger predictor of profitability. Hotel managers can use flow-through ratios to make financial forecasts, or use them as inputs in valuation models, to forecast future profitability. Originality/value – This paper extends prior research on the relationship between top-line measures and bottom-line profitability and serves to inform lodging owners, operators and asset managers about flow-through ratios, and how these ratios impact hotel profitability.

Labor Scheduling Using NPV Estimates of the Marginal Benefit of Additional Labor Capacity

An extensive literature exists on the problems of daily (shift) and weekly (tour) labor scheduling. In representing requirements for employees in these problems, researchers have used formulations based either on the model of Dantzig (1954) or on the model of Keith (1979). We show that both formulations have weakness in environments where management knows, or can attempt to identify, how different levels of customer service affect profits. These weaknesses results in lower-than-necessary profits. This paper presents a New Formulation of the daily and weekly Labor Scheduling Problems (NFLSP) designed to overcome the limitations of earlier models. NFLSP incorporates information on how changing the number of employees working in each planning period affects profits. NFLP uses this information during the development of the schedule to identify the number of employees who, ideally, should be working in each period. In an extensive simulation of 1,152 service environments, NFLSP outperformed the formulations of Dantzig (1954) and Keith (1979) at a level of significance of 0.001. Assuming year-round operations and an hourly wage, including benefits, of $6.00, NFLSP's schedules were $96,046 (2.2%) and $24,648 (0.6%) more profitable, on average, than schedules developed using the formulations of Danzig (1954) and Keith (1979), respectively. Although the average percentage gain over Keith's model was fairly small, it could be much larger in some real cases with different parameters. In 73 and 100 percent of the cases we simulated NFLSP yielded a higher profit than the models of Keith (1979) and Danzig (1954), respectively.