4 resultados para Time-trends

em SAPIENTIA - Universidade do Algarve - Portugal


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Tese de Doutoramento, Turismo, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

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Min/max autocorrelation factor analysis (MAFA) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA) are complementary techniques for analysing short (> 15-25 y), non-stationary, multivariate data sets. We illustrate the two techniques using catch rate (cpue) time-series (1982-2001) for 17 species caught during trawl surveys off Mauritania, with the NAO index, an upwelling index, sea surface temperature, and an index of fishing effort as explanatory variables. Both techniques gave coherent results, the most important common trend being a decrease in cpue during the latter half of the time-series, and the next important being an increase during the first half. A DFA model with SST and UPW as explanatory variables and two common trends gave good fits to most of the cpue time-series. (c) 2004 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Time series of commercial landings from the Algarve (southern Portugal) from 1982 to 1999 were analyzed using min/max autocorrelation factor analysis (MAFA) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA). These techniques were used to identify trends and explore the relationships between the response variables (annual landings of 12 species) and explanatory variables [sea surface temperature, rainfall, an upwelling index, Guadiana river (south-east Portugal) flow, the North Atlantic oscillation, the number of licensed fishing vessels and the number of commercial fishermen]. Landings were more highly correlated with non-lagged environmental variables and in particular with Guadiana river flow. Both techniques gave coherent results, with the most important trend being a steady decline over time. A DFA model with two explanatory variables (Guadiana river flow and number of fishermen) and three common trends (smoothing functions over time) gave good fits to 10 of the 12 species. Results of other models indicated that river flow is the more important explanatory variable in this model. Changes in the mean flow and discharge regime of the Guadiana river resulting from the construction of the Alqueva dam, completed in 2002, are therefore likely to have a significant and deleterious impact on Algarve fisheries landings.

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Background. Stocks of many marine fishes are in decline and a number of studies suggest that for some species the impact of recreational angling may be important. To date, only recreational (leisure) fishing surveys have been conducted in Portugal, with no studies on beach angling competitions, dynamically increasing in number over the past 10 to 20 years. In view of the above, we decided to evaluate the impact of such events on the Algarve coast (southern Portugal) in terms of the abundance, diversity, and respective weight of fish species caught and outline some conservation measures and recommendations for the management of the targeted species. Materials and methods. Participants of 22 angling competitions taking place between February and June 2007 were surveyed. In each competition a random sample of anglers was interviewed, and the specimens caught by each participant were identified, weighed, and measured. Results. Thirteen taxa belonging to eight families were identified, and the most common were: garfish, Belone belone (Linnaeus, 1761); mullets, Mugilidae (not identified); and mackerels, Scomber spp. A total of 563 specimens were sampled, totalling 75.4 kg of weight, with the average catch per angler weighing 0.5 +/- 0.05 SE (n = 153) kg. Differences were also observed between the length at first maturity (L(50)) of the specimens caught and their respective Minimum Landing Size (MLS) and Allowed Minimum Size (AMS), most particularly in the case of the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax (L.), with almost all individuals caught measuring below the species-specific L50. Analysis of time series of competition results (1996-2009) showed no evidence of a decrease in catches or in mean weight. Conclusion. Based on the results we propose that the AMS for beach angling competitions should be increased to the MLS in order to prevent the capture of juvenile fishes, especially the sea bass. Future studies should address the size selectivity of the hooks used in beach competitions, with a view to the implementation of a minimum hook size for competitions.