Assessing the effects of pseudo-absences on predictive distribution model performance

Modelling species distributions with presence data from atlases, museum collections and databases is challenging. In this paper, we compare seven procedures to generate pseudoabsence data, which in turn are used to generate GLM-logistic regressed models when reliable absence data are not available. We use pseudo-absences selected randomly or by means of presence-only methods (ENFA and MDE) to model the distribution of a threatened endemic Iberian moth species (Graellsia isabelae). The results show that the pseudo-absence selection method greatly influences the percentage of explained variability, the scores of the accuracy measures and, most importantly, the degree of constraint in the distribution estimated. As we extract pseudo-absences from environmental regions further from the optimum established by presence data, the models generated obtain better accuracy scores, and over-prediction increases. When variables other than environmental ones influence the distribution of the species (i.e., non-equilibrium state) and precise information on absences is non-existent, the random selection of pseudo-absences or their selection from environmental localities similar to those of species presence data generates the most constrained predictive distribution maps, because pseudo-absences can be located within environmentally suitable areas. This study showsthat ifwe do not have reliable absence data, the method of pseudo-absence selection strongly conditions the obtained model, generating different model predictions in the gradient between potential and realized distributions.

Ecological niche modeling, cytogenetics and phylogeography of the genera Geomalacus and Letourneuxia (Gastropoda, Pulmonata) from the Iberian-Moroccan region

First described more that 150 years ago, the systematics of the genera Geomalacus and Letourneuxia (Arionidae, Gastropoda, Pulmonata) is still challenging. The taxonomic classification of arionid species is based on extremely labile characters such as body size or color that depends both on diet and environment, as well as age. Moreover, there is little information on the genetic diversity and population structure of the Iberian slugs that could provide extra clues to disentangle their problematic classification. The present work uses different analytical tools such as habitat suitability (Ecological Niche Modeling - ENM), cytogenetic analysis and phylogeography to establish the geographical distribution and evolutionary history of these pulmonate slugs. The potential distribution of the four Geomalacus species was modeled using ENM, which allowed the identification of new locations for G. malagensis, including a first report in Portugal. Also, it was predicted a much wider distribution for G. malagensis and G. oliveirae than previously known. Classical cytogenetic analyses were assayed with reproductive and a novel use of somatic tissues (mouth and tentacles) returning the number of chromosomes for the four Geomalacus species and L. numidica (n = 31, 2n = 62) and the respective karyotypes. G. malagensis and L. numidica present similar chromosome morphologies and karyotypic formulae, being more similar to each other than the Geomalacus among themselves. We further reconstructed the phylogeny of the genera Geomalacus and Letourneuxia using partial sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and the nuclear ribosomal small subunit (18S rRNA), and applied an independent evolutionary rate method, the indicator vectors correlation, to evaluate the existence of cryptic diversity within species. The five nominal species of Geomalacus and Letourneuxia comprise 14 well-supported cryptic lineages. Letourneuxia numidica was retrieved as a sister group of G. malagensis. G. oliveirae is paraphyletic with respect to G. anguiformis. According to our dating estimates, the most recent common ancestor of Geomalacus dates back to the Middle Miocene (end of the Serravallian stage). The major lineage splitting events within Geomalacus occurred during the dry periods of the Zanclean stage (5.3-3.6 million years) and some lineages were confined to more humid mountain areas of the Iberian Peninsula, which lead to a highly geographically structured mitochondrial genetic diversity. The major findings of this are the following: (1) provides updated species distribution maps for the Iberian Geomalacus expanding the known geographic distribution of the concerned species, (2) unravels the cryptic diversity within the genera Geomalacus and Letourneuxia, (3) Geomalacus oliveirae is paraphyletic with G. anguiformis and (4) Letourneuxia numidica is sister group of G. malagensis.

Modeling the suitable habitat of a structural red gorgonian species in the Mediterranean/east Atlantic regions predicts a wider distribution than previously known

Dissertação de mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Univerdade do Algarve, 2015

Using niche modelling of indicator species to predict the distribution of xerophitic shrub dune communities in South-Western Portugal

Inland sand dune systems are amongst the most threatened habitat types of Europe. Affected by severe conditions, these habitats present distinct community compositions, which makes them excellent for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We focus on understanding the distribution and cooccurrence of the species from dune plant assemblages as a key step for the adequate protection of these habitats. Using data from an extensive survey we identified the shrub species that could be considered indicators of the different xerophytic scrub dune communities in South West Portugal. Then, we modelled the responses of these species to the environmental conditions using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. We present some preliminary results elucidating whether using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict the distribution of the different types of communities inhabiting these endangered habitats.

Landscape metrics as indicators of coastal morphology and its use in ecological niche modelling of seagrass species

Dependence of some species on landscape structure has been proved in numerous studies. So far, however, little progress has been made in the integration of landscape metrics in the prediction of species associated with coastal features. Specific landscape metrics were tested as predictors of coastal shape using three coastal features of the Iberian Peninsula (beaches, capes and gulfs) at different scales. We used the landscape metrics in combination with environmental variables to model the niche and find suitable habitats for a seagrass species (Cymodocea nodosa) throughout its entire range of distribution. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We provided the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche and distribution of C. nodosa throughout its range. Sea surface temperature and salinity were the most relevant variables. We identified areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. We also present some preliminary results of testing historical biogeographical hypotheses derived from distribution predictions under Last Glacial Maximum conditions and genetic diversity data.

Assessment of catches, landings and fishing effort as useful tools for MPA management

Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely recognized as a tool to achieve both fisheries management and conservation goals. Simultaneously achieving these multiple goals is difficult due to conflicts between conservation (often long-term) and economic (often short-term) objectives. MPA implementation often includes additional control measures on fisheries (e.g. vessel size restrictions, gear exclusion, catch controls) that in the short-term may have impacts on local fishers' communities. Thus, monitoring fisheries catches before, during and after MPA implementation is essential to document changes in fisheries activities and to evaluate the impact of MPAs in fishers' communities. Remarkably, in contrast with standard fisheries-independent biological surveys, these data are rarely measured at appropriate spatial scales following MPA implementation. Here, the effects of MPA implementation on local fisheries are assessed in a temperate MPA (Arrabida Marine Park, Portugal), using fisheries monitoring methods combining spatial distribution of fishing effort, on-board observations and official landings statistics at scales appropriate to the Marine Park. Fisheries spatial distribution, fishing effort, on-board data collection and official landings registered for the same vessels over time were analysed between 2004 and 2010. The applicability and reliability of using landings statistics alone was tested (i.e. when no sampling data are available) and we conclude that landings data alone only allow the identification of general patterns. The combination of landings information (which is known to be unreliable in many coastal communities) with other methods, provides an effective tool to evaluate fisheries dynamics in response to MPA implementation. As resources for monitoring socio-ecological responses to MPAs are frequently scarce, the use of landings data calibrated with fisheries information (from vessels, gear distribution and on-board data) is a valuable tool applicable to many worldwide coastal small-scale fisheries. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and depth-associated distribution patterns of shallow gorgonians in the Algarve coast (Portugal, NE Atlantic)

The ecological role of gorgonians for marine rocky bottoms is worldwide recognized, but the information on the distribution patterns of NE Atlantic temperate species is insufficient, considering current global, regional and local threats. To overcome the lack of information on the spatial distribution patterns of gorgonians in south Portugal, in 2009/2010, the occurrence and abundance of gorgonian species in rocky bottoms were quantified over more than 25 km of coast (37.1N/8.6W) down to 30 m depth. Eunicella labiata, Eunicella gazella, Eunicella verrucosa and Leptogorgia sarmentosa were abundant and frequent in the studied area, while Leptogorgia lusitanica was less abundant. All species evidenced a similar depth pattern, that is abundance significantly increased with depth below 15 m. At shallower waters (up to 15 m), the distribution of gorgonians may be constrained by abiotic factors and competition with algae. Indeed, the abundance of gorgonians was negatively correlated with the percentage cover of algae along the depth gradient, but gorgonians and sponges coexist. Competition among gorgonian species also seems to be low in this area because of the similarity in the abundance pattern observed for the most abundant species and also their high association. In NE Atlantic shallow temperate rocky bottoms, the distribution of gorgonians seems to be influenced by environmental factors and biological interactions, namely competition (algae) and coexistence (sponges and other gorgonians).