Motivações do gestor e instrumentos contabilísticos utilizados na gestão dos resultados: o caso das autarquias locais

Face aos princípios orientadores do New Public Management a política orçamental, continuando a ser primordial na avaliação do desempenho do gestor público, deixou de ser o seu único meio de avaliação, constituindo a informação proporcionada pela contabilidade financeira uma ferramenta essencial para aferir a racionalidade, a economia, a eficiência e a eficácia da aplicação dos recursos na satisfação das necessidades dos cidadãos/eleitores. O presente trabalho de investigação tem como objectivo proporcionar conhecimento acerca dos incentivos que podem motivar o gestor autárquico à prática da gestão dos resultados bem como identificar os procedimentos contabilísticos utilizados para essa gestão. O trabalho desenvolvido assentou em pressupostos das teorias da agência e da escolha pública que permitiram formular as hipóteses a testar no estudo empírico. Os resultados obtidos confirmam o pressuposto fundamental de ambas as teorias: na presença de uma relação de agência em que existem conflitos de interesse entre o gestor e o principal, o gestor procura actuar oportunisticamente no seu interesse próprio, maximizando o seu bem-estar. Confirmam, igualmente, que numa perspectiva de sinalização de desempenho e competência, com vista à reeleição, o autarca procede à gestão dos resultados tendo como objectivo evitar divulgar resultados negativos e procurar divulgar resultados positivos próximos de zero num nível que não seja considerado excessivo por parte, nomeadamente, do cidadão, dos grupos de interesse e dos partidos políticos.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Revenue diversification in higher education: the case of Portugal

Socio-economic changes, alterations in societal expectations and new public policies have put pressures on higher education public funding, bringing the issue of funding diversification to the forefront. Income diversification, namely, generation of funds from private, as well as from competitive public sources, has become increasingly important in European higher education due to a complex financial environment and perceived deficit of innovation transfer. Although there are numerous studies about changes in national funding systems and allocation mechanisms, few have focused on diversification of funding sources, especially in the European context, making Portugal no exception. Thus, this study aims at exploring income diversification at the institutional level and its influence on the internal organisational structures. For this purpose two Portuguese public universities were chosen as case studies. The empirical material was collected through semi-structured interviews with top management and middle management of each university and through documentary analysis. Data analysis demonstrated that both universities are in the process of institutionalizing and formalising practices of income diversification, notably by getting more professional in how they are dealing with external stakeholders, such as businesses, local community, and students. However, the study also revealed that there is no formal, organised strategy to deal with income diversification. In general, the universities are reacting to external demands rather than pro-actively exploring opportunities. In this respect, the analysis determined several factors that promote or inhibit income diversification activities. Quality and favourable organizational culture were named by the interviewees as the most relevant factors for successful income diversification. External factors such as legal arrangements and funding conditions were cited as major constraints. This research has also revealed that revenue diversification activities tend to develop along the continuum towards higher sophistication and systematisation of activities that are supported by a powerful infrastructure. Together with efforts at the institutional level, the role of government policies proves to be crucial in providing tools and incentives to higher education institutions and creating a harmonious higher education system.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.