Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

Monte Carlo studies of phase transitions and adsorption : application to n-6 Lennard-Jones, C60 and zeolite systems

The solid-fluid transition properties of the n - 6 Lennard-Jones system are studied by means of extensive free energy calculations. Different values of the parameter n which regulates the steepness of the short-range repulsive interaction are investigated. Furthermore, the free energies of the n < 12 systems are calculated using the n = 12 system as a reference. The method relies on a generalization of the multiple histogram method that combines independent canonical ensemble simulations performed with different Hamiltonians and computes the free energy difference between them. The phase behavior of the fullerene C60 solid is studied by performing NPT simulations using atomistic models which treat each carbon in the molecule as a separate interaction site with additional bond charges. In particular, the transition from an orientationally frozen phase at low temperatures to one where the molecules are freely rotating at higher temperatures is studied as a function of applied pressure. The adsorption of molecular hydrogen in the zeolite NaA is investigated by means of grand-canonical Monte Carlo, in a wide range of temperatures and imposed gas pressures, and results are compared with available experimental data. A potential model is used that comprises three main interactions: van der Waals, Coulomb and induced polarization by the permanent electric field in the zeolite.