Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Thermal conductivities of ionic liquids over the temperature range from 293 K to 353 K

The thermal conductivities of 11 ionic liquids were determined, over the temperature range from 293 K to 353 K, at atmospheric pressure, using an apparatus based on the transient hot-wire method. For each of the ionic liquids studied, the thermal conductivities were found to be between (0.1 and 0.2) W.m(-1).K-1, with a slight decrease observed on increasing temperature. The uncertainty is estimated to be less than +/- 0.002 W.m(-1).K-1. In all cases, a linear equation was found to give a good fit to the data. The effects of water content and chloride content on the thermal conductivities of some of the ionic liquids were investigated. In each case, the thermal conductivities of the water + ionic liquid and chloride + ionic liquid binary mixtures were found to be less than the weighted average of the pure component thermal conductivities. This effect was adequately modeled using the Jamieson correlation. Chloride contamination at typical postsynthesis levels was found to have no significant effect on the thermal conductivities of the ionic liquid studied.

Prediction of limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty using a Harmonic Balance method

The Harmonic Balance method is an attractive solution for computing periodic responses and can be an alternative to time domain methods, at a reduced computational cost. The current paper investigates using a Harmonic Balance method for simulating limit cycle oscillations under uncertainty. The Harmonic Balance method is used in conjunction with a non-intrusive polynomial-chaos approach to propagate variability and is validated against Monte Carlo analysis. Results show the potential of the approach for a range of nonlinear dynamical systems, including a full wing configuration exhibiting supercritical and subcritical bifurcations, at a fraction of the cost of performing time domain simulations.

The diversity of extradiol dioxygenase (edo) genes in cresol degrading rhodococci from a creosote-contaminated site that express a wide range of degradative abilities.

Analysis of the bacterial population of soil surface samples from a creosote-contaminated site showed that up to 50% of the culturable micro-organisms detected were able to utilise a mixture of cresols. From fifty different microbial isolates fourteen that could utilise more than one cresol isomer were selected and identified by 16S rRNA analysis. Eight isolates were Rhodococcus strains and six were Pseudomonas strains. In general, the Rhodococcus strains exhibited a broader growth substrate range than the Pseudomonas strains. The distribution of various extradiol dioxygenase (edo) genes, previously associated with aromatic compound degradation in rhodococci, was determined for the Rhodococcus strains by PCR detection and Southern-blot hybridization. One strain, Rhodococcus sp. I1 exhibited the broadest growth substrate range and possessed five different edo genes. Gene disruption experiments indicated that two genes (edoC and edoD) were associated with isopropylbenzene and naphthalene catabolism respectively. The other Rhodococcus strains also possessed some of the edo genes and one (edoB) was present in all of the Rhodococcus strains analysed. None of the rhodococcal edo genes analysed were present in the Pseudomonas strains isolated from the site. It was concluded that individual strains of Rhodococcus possess a wide degradative ability and may be very important in the degradation of complex mixtures of substrates found in creosote.

High-resolution spectroscopic observations of B-type stars from the Edinburgh-Cape Survey - III. Completion of a magnitude range limited survey

High spectral resolution (R similar to 40 000) and signal-to- noise ratio observations of five high Galactic latitude early- type stars taken from the Edinburgh-Cape (EC) Faint Blue Object Survey are presented. These were required to complete a magnitude range-limited survey of young B-type objects with 11 <V <15. Of the five stars, four were rejected on the grounds that they are either subluminous (subdwarf or horizontal branch), were part of a binary system or possessed colours later than the (U - B) = -0.5 cut-off employed. The remaining star in the data set, EC 19596-5356, is found to exhibit normal young B-type stellar properties. A kinematic analysis reveals that an origin in the Galactic disc appears likely for all the stars in the sample. Some statistics are drawn about the number density of young stars in the Galactic halo.

Early-type stars in the Galactic halo from the Palomar-Green survey - III. Completion of a magnitude range limited sample

High-resolution (R approximate to 40 000) echelle spectroscopic observations of 13 high-latitude early-type stars are presented. These stars comprise the final part of a complete magnitude range limited sample based on low-resolution spectroscopy of targets drawn from the Palomar-Green survey. The magnitude range under consideration is 13 less than or equal to B-PG less than or equal to 14.6, corresponding to an approximate distance limit for main-sequence B-type objects of 5 less than or equal to d less than or equal to 40 kpc. Three stars are found to be apparently normal, young stars, based on their positions on the (T-eff, log g) diagram, normal abundance patterns and relatively large projected rotational velocities. A further star, PG 1209+263, was found to belong to the chemically peculiar (CP) silicon star class of objects. The remainder are evolved subluminous stars lying on post- horizontal branch (post-HB) tracks, with the exception of PG 2120+062, which appears to be in a post-asymptotic giant branch evolutionary stage. For the young stars in the sample, we have derived distance and age estimates through comparison of the atmospheric parameters with recent theoretical evolutionary models. We discuss formation scenarios by comparing times-of- flight and evolutionary time-scales. It is found that all stars could have formed in the Galactic disc and been ejected from there soon after their birth, with the exception of PG 1209+263. The adopted proper motion is found to be a crucial factor in the kinematical analysis. We also present some number densities for young B-type halo stars, which indicate that they are extremely scarce objects.

Computerised Diagnostic Decision Support System for the Classification of Pre-Invasive Cervical Squamous Lesions.

Previous studies have revealed considerable interobserver and intraobserver variation in the histological classification of preinvasive cervical squamous lesions. The aim of the present study was to develop a decision support system (DSS) for the histological interpretation of these lesions. Knowledge and uncertainty were represented in the form of a Bayesian belief network that permitted the storage of diagnostic knowledge and, for a given case, the collection of evidence in a cumulative manner that provided a final probability for the possible diagnostic outcomes. The network comprised 8 diagnostic histological features (evidence nodes) that were each independently linked to the diagnosis (decision node) by a conditional probability matrix. Diagnostic outcomes comprised normal; koilocytosis; and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1, CIN II, and CIN M. For each evidence feature, a set of images was recorded that represented the full spectrum of change for that feature. The system was designed to be interactive in that the histopathologist was prompted to enter evidence into the network via a specifically designed graphical user interface (i-Path Diagnostics, Belfast, Northern Ireland). Membership functions were used to derive the relative likelihoods for the alternative feature outcomes, the likelihood vector was entered into the network, and the updated diagnostic belief was computed for the diagnostic outcomes and displayed. A cumulative probability graph was generated throughout the diagnostic process and presented on screen. The network was tested on 50 cervical colposcopic biopsy specimens, comprising 10 cases each of normal, koilocytosis, CIN 1, CIN H, and CIN III. These had been preselected by a consultant gynecological pathologist. Using conventional morphological assessment, the cases were classified on 2 separate occasions by 2 consultant and 2 junior pathologists. The cases were also then classified using the DSS on 2 occasions by the 4 pathologists and by 2 medical students with no experience in cervical histology. Interobserver and intraobserver agreement using morphology and using the DSS was calculated with K statistics. Intraobserver reproducibility using conventional unaided diagnosis was reasonably good (kappa range, 0.688 to 0.861), but interobserver agreement was poor (kappa range, 0.347 to 0.747). Using the DSS improved overall reproducibility between individuals. Using the DSS, however, did not enhance the diagnostic performance of junior pathologists when comparing their DSS-based diagnosis against an experienced consultant. However, the generation of a cumulative probability graph also allowed a comparison of individual performance, how individual features were assessed in the same case, and how this contributed to diagnostic disagreement between individuals. Diagnostic features such as nuclear pleomorphism were shown to be particularly problematic and poorly reproducible. DSSs such as this therefore not only have a role to play in enhancing decision making but also in the study of diagnostic protocol, education, self-assessment, and quality control. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polarisation analysis of VUV synchrotron radiation emitted from a bending magnet source in the energy range 20-50 eV: A comparison between measurements and theoretical predictions

The results of a study to characterise the polarisation properties of the photon beam emerging from beamline 5D, mounted on a bending magnet source at the Synchrotron Radiation Source, Daresbury Laboratory, are presented. The expectation values for the Stokes parameters corresponding to the light transmitted by the beamline have been calculated by combining ray-tracing and optical methods. The polarisation of the light at the source is modified both by the beamline geometry and by the reflections at the optical components. Although it is often assumed that the polarising properties of grazing incidence optics are negligible, this assumption leads to rather inaccurate results in the VUV region. A study of the reflectivity shows that even at incidence angles (theta(i) = 80-85degrees) which are far from the Brewster angle (theta(B) similar to 45degrees for VUV and soft X-ray radiation) the residual changes in the amplitudes of the reflected light can result in non-negligible polarisation effects. Furthermore, reflection at grazing incidence gives rise to a substantial change in the phase, and this has the effect of rotating the elliptically polarised state. Theoretical Stokes parameters have been compared with full polarisation measurements obtained using a reflection polarimeter in the energy range 20-40 eV. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.