Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

New governance for higher education institutions:prospects for female university careers and equality law

This paper analyses the reforms in employment conditions at German public universities from the 1990s to the 2000s, considering how these impact on practical equal opportunities between women and men. It concludes that while the so called "new governance" in universities would have offered opportunities to integrate positive measures to increase female participation in research and teaching, these opportunities were missed in most German states.

An Innovative Model for the Provision of Practice Learning Opportunities in Family and Child Care: Newry Student Unit, Southern Health and Social Care Trust.

This article describes the work of Newry Student Unit which operates in the Southern Health and Social Care Trust. The background to the unit is outlined and its development is discussed in the context of practice learning provision in Northern Ireland. The operation of the unit in providing Family and Child Care practice learning opportunities (PLOs) for student social workers is outlined and findings from evaluation questionnaires completed by students, college tutors and team leaders are presented. The paper highlights both the advantages and disadvantages of this model of PLO provision and concludes that it is a valuable resource for practice learning. Proposals for the development of the unit are discussed and it is suggested that the model has the potential be replicated in other areas of Northern Ireland.

Elements of A New Framework for the principle of Equal Treatment of persons in EC Law

In June and November 2000, the European Parliament and the Council adopted two Directives referring to ‘the principle of equal treatment irrespective of’ in their title, one relating to racial and ethnic origin, the other to disability, age, religion and belief or sexual orientation. A thorough reform of Directive 76/207/EEC on the principle of equal treatment for women and men in employment matters is pending between the European Parliament's second reading and adoption while this is written. Community secondary legislation on equal treatment of persons has thus expanded in scope and number of reasons which must not serve as starting points for differentiation. Does this signify progress in legal protection against personal discrimination? While not providing a ready answer, this article proposes an analytical framework to answer this question, concentrating on conceptions of equality in general and in particular on the problems multi-dimensional discrimination might pose for the law.

Novel opportunities for thymidylate metabolism as a therapeutic target

For over 40 years, the fluoropyrimidine 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) has remained the central agent in therapeutic regimens employed in the treatment of colorectal cancer and is frequently combined with the DNA-damaging agents oxaliplatin and irinotecan, increasing response rates and improving overall survival. However, many patients will derive little or no benefit from treatment, highlighting the need to identify novel therapeutic targets to improve the efficacy of current 5-FU-based chemotherapeutic strategies. dUTP nucleotidohydrolase (dUTPase) catalyzes the hydrolysis of dUTP to dUMP and PPi, providing substrate for thymidylate synthase (TS) and DNA synthesis and repair. Although dUTP is a normal intermediate in DNA synthesis, its accumulation and misincorporation into DNA as uracil is lethal. Importantly, uracil misincorporation represents an important mechanism of cytotoxicity induced by the TS-targeted class of chemotherapeutic agents including 5-FU. A growing body of evidence suggests that dUTPase is an important mediator of response to TS-targeted agents. In this article, we present further evidence showing that elevated expression of dUTPase can protect breast cancer cells from the expansion of the intracellular uracil pool, translating to reduced growth inhibition following treatment with 5-FU. We therefore report the implementation of in silico drug development techniques to identify and develop small-molecule inhibitors of dUTPase. As 5-FU and the oral 5-FU prodrug capecitabine remain central agents in the treatment of a variety of malignancies, the clinical utility of a small-molecule inhibitor to dUTPase represents a viable strategy to improve the clinical efficacy of these mainstay chemotherapeutic agents.

No second chance: the experiences of junior neonatal nurses in providing end-of-life care for babies and families in the NNU

Background

An infant’s death is acutely stressful for parents and professionals. Little is known about junior nurses’ experiences providing end-of-life care in Neonatal Units (NNU).

Objectives

To better understand junior nurses’ experiences providing end-of-life care in NNU, the study explored the challenges and opportunities inherent in their practice relating to providing such care to babies and their families.

Methods

Neonatal nurses (n=12) with less than 3 years’ experience who were undergoing a neonatal education programme participated. Two focus groups were convened each with 6 nurses. The Ethics Committee at the relevant University approved the study. Nominal Group Technique (NGT) was used in the focus groups to build consensus around the challenges faced by junior nurses, alongside suggested developments in improving future care provision. Primary analysis involved successive rounds of ranking and decision making whilst secondary analysis involved thematic analysis.

Results

The study identified the pressures these nurses felt in having only one chance to ‘get it right’ for the infants and their families. They perceived the need for further ‘education and training’ highlighting that improved education provision would include both additional courses and internal training sessions. Greater ‘support’ from mentors themselves more experienced in this aspect of care within the NNU was identified as important in addressing issues around confidence building and skill development.

Conclusions

The results highlight junior nurses’ need for specific education and mentorship around end-of-life care for babies. This presentation will outline the implications for practice, education and further research.

Providing psychological services for people with diabetes

Previous research and service development guidelines have highlighted the importance of psychological issues in diabetes care, and both people with diabetes and diabetes professionals recognise the need for specialist psychological input. This article outlines the development of a service delivery model for psychological services in diabetes care, based on a patient needs assessment and the advice of diabetes professionals. This involved an assessment of the psychological needs of people with diabetes within an urban Health Trust in Northern Ireland, and the collation of the views of local diabetes professionals. Questionnaires to assess for depression, anxiety, binge eating behaviour and diabetes-specific worries were completed by 300 people with diabetes. The participants were accessed through both primary and secondary care diabetes teams. As expected, a high level of psychological distress relative to population norms was illustrated by the patient needs assessment. Particularly high levels of binge eating behaviour were reported, and levels of distress were higher for community-managed patients than for hospital-managed patients. The diabetes professionals unanimously agreed that there is a need for specialist psychological input and contributed to the service delivery model which is outlined in this article.

Path-Dependency, Stocks, Switching Points, Flows: Reflections on Long-term Global Change and Local Opportunities

This paper examines the possibilities for peripheral localities to achieve upward mobility in the world-system by “hooking on” to larger processes of world-system accumulation. In particular, is it possible for economies that are dependent on foreign investment to receive a flow of investments that is high enough to overcome the negative impacts of a high stock of foreign investment, thus enabling them to cross a threshold and achieve upward mobility in the world-system? An analysis of therecent experience of the southern Irish “Celtic Tiger” economy during 1990-2000 indicates that such an upward movement is possible on the basis of massive foreign investment inflows. On closer examination, however, the Irish-type model appears to be highly deficient, because a high proportion of growth is illusionary and also on grounds of social desirability and lack of generalizability.

Mental health social work in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland: challenges and opportunities for developing practice

Drawing on their experience of mental health social work in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, the authors examine the impact of current legislative and policy change in both jurisdictions. The paper applies Lorenz’s theoretical framework to develop a comparative analysis of how global and country specific variables have interacted in shaping mental health social work. The analysis identifies linkages between factors and indicates similarities and differences in mental health social work practice. The paper highlights emerging discourses in this field and explores the impact on practice of developments such as de-institutionalisation, community care, and ‘user rights’ versus ‘public protection’. The article concludes with a review of key challenges facing social workers in both jurisdictions and identifies opportunities for developing mental health social work in ways that can positively respond to change and effectively address the needs of mental health service users and their carers. The analysis provides an opportunity to evaluate Lorenz’s theoretical framework and the paper includes a brief critical commentary on its utility as a conceptual tool in comparative social work.

Equalising opportunities for women in electoral politics in Ireland: The Views of Women Members of Parliament

This paper examines the attitudes of women political elites in Ireland toward positive action initiatives that would assist in increasing women's legislative presence. An earlier study isolated family responsibilities and lack of finance as significant barriers for Irish women wishing to enter, and stay in, political life. In addition, scholarly and policy debates on boosting women's parliamentary representation focus on manipulating electoral or party selection rules along with strategies for making a political career more compatible with women's socially determined responsibilities. This paper examines how Irish women politicians respond to various suggestions for positive action in these three arenas: combining legislative and family responsibilities, funding a political campaign and getting elected. The paper highlights the broad consensus among women politicians, irrespective of party, self-interest, or length of service, favoring certain positive action initiatives, as well as their reluctance to support other options. It also illustrates the complexity of implementing some of these reforms. In addition, the paper emphasizes how cultural expectations and values act to inhibit women's political agency.