Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

In my ‘Mind’s Eye’: introspectionism, detectivism, and the basis of authoritative self-knowledge

It is widely accepted that knowledge of certain of one’s own mental states is authoritative in being epistemically more secure than knowledge of the mental states of others, and theories of self-knowledge have largely appealed to one or the other of two sources to explain this special epistemic status. The first, ‘detectivist’, position, appeals to an inner perception-like basis, whereas the second, ‘constitutivist’, one, appeals to the view that the special security awarded to certain self-knowledge is a conceptual matter. I argue that there is a fundamental class of cases of authoritative self-knowledge, ones in which subjects are consciously thinking about their current, conscious intentional states, that is best accounted for in terms of a theory that is,
broadly speaking, introspectionist and detectivist. The position developed has an intuitive plausibility that has inspired many who work in the Cartesian tradition, and the potential to yield a single treatment of the basis of authoritative self-knowledge for both intentional states and sensation states.

In My 'Mind's Eye': Introspectionism, Detectivism, and the Basis of Authoritative Self-Knowledge

It is widely accepted that knowledge of certain of one’s own mental states is authoritative in being epistemically more secure than knowledge of the mental states of others, and theories of self-knowledge have largely appealed to one or the other of two sources to explain this special epistemic status. The first, ‘detectivist’, position, appeals to an inner perception-like basis, whereas the second, ‘constitutivist’, one, appeals to the view that the special security awarded to certain self-knowledge is a conceptual matter. I argue that there is a fundamental class of cases of authoritative self-knowledge, ones in which subjects are consciously thinking about their current, conscious intentional states, that is best accounted for in terms of a theory that is, broadly speaking, introspectionist and detectivist. The position developed has an intuitive plausibility that has inspired many who work in the Cartesian tradition, and the potential to yield a single treatment of the basis of authoritative self-knowledge for both intentional states and sensation states.

Spin and spatial dynamics in electron-impact scattering off S-wave He using R-matrix with Time-Dependence theory

R-matrix with time-dependence theory is applied to electron-impact ionisation processes for He in the S-wave model. Cross sections for electron-impact excitation, ionisation and ionisation with excitation for impact energies between 25 and 225 eV are in excellent agreement with benchmark cross sections. Ultra-fast dynamics induced by a scattering event is observed through time-dependent signatures associated with autoionisation from doubly excited states. Further insight into dynamics can be obtained through examination of the spin components of the time-dependent wavefunction.

Spectroscopy and metastability of CO 2 2+ molecular ions

The spectroscopy and metastability of the carbon dioxide doubly charged ion, the CO ₂ ²⁺ dication, have been studied with photoionization experiments: time-of-flight photoelectron photoelectron coincidence (TOF-PEPECO), threshold photoelectrons coincidence (TPEsCO), and threshold photoelectrons and ion coincidence (TPEsCO ion coincidence) spectroscopies. Vibrational structure is observed in TOF-PEPECO and TPEsCO spectra of the ground and first two excited states. The vibrational structure is dominated by the symmetric stretch except in the TPEsCO spectrum of the ground state where an antisymmetric stretch progression is observed. All three vibrational frequencies are deduced for the ground state and symmetric stretch and bending frequencies are deduced for the first two excited states. Some vibrational structure of higher electronic states is also observed. The threshold for double ionization of carbon dioxide is reported as 37.340±0.010 eV. The fragmentation of energy selected CO ₂ ²⁺ ions has been investigated with TPEsCO ion coincidence spectroscopy. A band of metastable states from ∼38.7 to ∼41 eV above the ground state of neutral CO ₂ has been observed in the experimental time window of ∼0.1-2.3 μs with a tendency towards shorter lifetimes at higher energies. It is proposed that the metastability is due to slow spin forbidden conversion from bound excited singlet states to unbound continuum states of the triplet ground state. Another result of this investigation is the observation of CO ⁺+O ⁺ formation in indirect dissociative double photoionization below the threshold for formation of CO ₂ ²⁺. The threshold for CO ⁺+O ⁺ formation is found to be 35.56±0.10 eV or lower, which is more than 2 eV lower than previous measurements.