Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Objective Within the framework of a health technology assessment and using an economic model, to determine the most clinically and cost effective policy of scanning and screening for fetal abnormalities in early pregnancy. Design A discrete event simulation model of 50,000 singleton pregnancies. Setting Maternity services in Scotland. Population Women during the first 24 weeks of their pregnancy. Methods The mathematical model was populated with data on uptake of screening, prevalence, detection and false positive rates for eight fetal abnormalities and with costs for ultrasound scanning and serum screening. Inclusion of abnormalities was based on the relative prevalence and clinical importance of conditions and the availability of data. Six strategies for the identification of abnormalities prenatally including combinations of first and second trimester ultrasound scanning and first and second trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities were compared. Main outcome measures The number of abnormalities detected and missed, the number of iatrogenic losses resulting from invasive tests, the total cost of strategies and the cost per abnormality detected were compared between strategies. Results First trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities costs more than second trimester screening but results in fewer iatrogenic losses. Strategies which include a second trimester ultrasound scan result in more abnormalities being detected and have lower costs per anomaly detected. Conclusions The preferred strategy includes both first and second trimester ultrasound scans and a first trimester screening test for chromosomal abnormalities. It has been recommended that this policy is offered to all women in Scotland.

Hand arthritis in systemic lupus erythematosus: an ultrasound pictorial essay.

A small minority of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients may develop a deforming arthritis, typically with a non-erosive (Jaccoud's) pattern, although erosive features indistinguishable from rheumatoid arthritis may also occur. High-resolution ultrasonography (HRUS) allows detailed 'real time' imaging of joint and tendon morphostructural changes involving the hand in patients with several rheumatic diseases. The main aim of this pictorial essay is to provide the first descriptive HRUS and power Doppler (PD) findings of joint and tendon involvement of the hand and wrist in patients with SLE arthritis. Seventeen patients with SLE and hand involvement were examined. HRUS of the wrist, 2nd and 3rd MCP joints, 3rd PIP joint and 2nd, 3rd and 4th finger flexor tendons were studied in the dominant hand for each patient. Sixteen (94%) patients had joint effusion or synovial hypertrophy in the wrist. Twelve (71%) patients had joint effusion or synovial hypertrophy in 2nd or 3rd MCPJs. Eight (47%) patients had erosion at 2nd or 3rd MCPJs. In three cases erosions were not present radiologically. Eleven (65%) patients had evidence of tenosynovitis. In SLE, HRUS with PD detects a high prevalence of inflammatory pathology in the tendons and synovium of the hand and wrist, and a high prevalence of MCP joint erosions. HRUS offers a sensitive, real-time and readily repeatable assessment of soft-tissue, inflammatory and bony changes in SLE hands.

Thin-zone TAP reactor as a basis of �state-by-state transient screening

Thin-zone TAP reactor is presented as a basis of the new state-by-state transient screening approach which has been proposed by the authors for non-steady-state kinetic characterization of industrial catalysts. The general thin-zone TAP reactor model is described, and its mathematical status is justified analytically. It is shown that this model provides high enough accuracy to be applicable in the wide conversion interval (up to 90%), which is an important advantage of this approach compared with the traditional differential reactor.

Is screening for Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutations in Renal Transplantation worthwhile? Results of a large single-center U.K. study

This single center study is the largest series of renal transplant recipients and donors screened for the commonest prothrombotic genotypes. A total of 562 transplant recipients and 457 kidney donors were genotyped for the factor V Leiden and prothrombin G20210A mutations. The prevalence of heterozygous factor V Leiden was 3.4% and 2.6% and prothrombin G20210A was 2.0% and 1.1% in recipients and donors, respectively, similar frequencies to that of the general U.K. population. The 30-day and 1-year graft survival rates in recipients with thrombophilic mutations were 93% and 93%, compared with 88% and 82% in patients without these mutations (log-rank P =0.34). Thrombophilia in recipients (odds ratio 0.55; confidence interval 0.06-2.29; P =0.56) or in donors (odds ratio 1.53; confidence interval 0.27-5.74; P =0.46) did not correlate with graft loss at 30 days after transplantation. In contrast to recent reports, this study did not demonstrate an association between thrombophilia and renal allograft loss, and routine screening is not recommended.

Repeated measures screening for down's syndrome

Objective To demonstrate the potential value of screening for Down's Syndrome using highly correlated repeated measures of serum markers taken in the first and second trimesters of pregnancy. Design A Monte Carlo simulation study. Population Detection rates and false positive rates relating to the maternal age distribution of England and Wales for the period 1996 to 1998 were obtained using marker distributions from the SURUSS study. Results Screening using first trimester nuchal translucency and repeated measures of uE3 and PAPP-A in the first and second trimester has an estimated false positive rate of 0.3% for an 85% detection rate. This should be compared with the integrated test with an estimated false positive rate of 1.2% for the same detection rate. Conclusionsâ?? The performance of repeated measures screening tests, and their acceptability to women, should be assessed in further prospective studies.