Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Aircraft Operating Costs in Structural Design Optimization

The paper focuses on the development of an aircraft design optimization methodology that models uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the tradeoff between manufacturing cost, structural requirements, andaircraft direct operating cost.Specifically,ratherthanonlylooking atmanufacturingcost, direct operatingcost is also consideredintermsof the impact of weight on fuel burn, in addition to the acquisition cost to be borne by the operator. Ultimately, there is a tradeoff between driving design according to minimal weight and driving it according to reduced manufacturing cost. Theanalysis of cost is facilitated withagenetic-causal cost-modeling methodology,andthe structural analysis is driven by numerical expressions of appropriate failure modes that use ESDU International reference data. However, a key contribution of the paper is to investigate the modeling of uncertainty and to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate the robustness of the optimization methodology. Stochastic distributions are used to characterize manufacturing cost distributions, andMonteCarlo analysis is performed in modeling the impact of uncertainty on the cost modeling. The results are then used in a sensitivity analysis that incorporates the optimization methodology. In addition to investigating manufacturing cost variance, the sensitivity of the optimization to fuel burn cost and structural loading are also investigated. It is found that the consideration of manufacturing cost does make an impact and results in a different optimal design configuration from that delivered by the minimal-weight method. However, it was shown that at lower applied loads there is a threshold fuel burn cost at which the optimization process needs to reduce weight, and this threshold decreases with increasing load. The new optimal solution results in lower direct operating cost with a predicted savings of 640=m2 of fuselage skin over the life, relating to a rough order-of-magnitude direct operating cost savings of $500,000 for the fuselage alone of a small regional jet. Moreover, it was found through the uncertainty analysis that the principle was not sensitive to cost variance, although the margins do change.

A preliminary structural design procedure for laser beam welded airframe stiffened panels

Initial sizing procedures for aircraft stiffened panels that include the influence of welding fabrication residual process effects are missing. Herein, experimental and Finite Element analyses are coupled to generate knowledge to formulate an accurate and computationally efficient sizing procedure which will enable designers to routinely consider panel fabrication, via welding, accounting for the complex distortions and stresses induced by this manufacturing process. Validating experimental results demonstrate the need to consider welding induced material property degradation, residual stresses and distortions, as these can reduce static strength performance. However, results from fuselage and wing trade-studies, using the validated sizing procedure, establish that these potential reductions in strength performance may be overcome through local geometric tailoring during initial sizing, negating any weight penalty for the majority of design scenarios.

A generic tool for cost estimating in aircraft design

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost modelling is original and relies on a genetic-causal method where the drivers of each element of cost are identified relative to the process capability. The cost model is then extended to life cycle costing by computing the Direct Operating Cost as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn, and coupled with a semi-empirical numerical analysis using Engineering Sciences Data Unit reference data to model the structural integrity of the fuselage shell with regard to material failure and various modes of buckling. The main finding of the paper is that the traditional minimum weight condition is a dated and sub-optimal approach to airframe structural design.

F. E.-assisted design of the eaves bracket of a cold-formed steel portal frame

Non-linear large-displacement elasto-plastic finite element analyses are used to propose design recommendations for the eaves bracket of a cold-formed steel portal frame. Owing to the thinness of the sheet steel used for the brackets, such a structural design problem is not trivial as the brackets need to be designed against failure through buckling; without availability of the finite element method, expensive laboratory testing would therefore be required. In this paper, the finite element method is firstly used to predict the plastic moment capacity of the eaves bracket. Parametric studies are then used to propose design recommendations for the eaves bracket against two potential buckling modes of failure:

Automated Methods for Aircraft Design Integrated with Manufacturing

Aircraft design is a complex, long and iterative process that requires the use of various specialties and optimization tools. However these tools and specialities do not include manufacturing, which is often considered later in the product development process leading to higher cost and time delays. This work focuses on the development of an automated design tool that accounts for manufacture during the design process focusing on early geometry definition which in turn informs assembly planning. To accomplish this task the design process needs to be open to any variation in structural configuration while maintaining the design intent. Redefining design intent as a map which links a set of requirements to a set of functions using a numerical approach enables the design process itself to be considered as a mathematical function. This definition enables the design process to utilise captured design knowledge and translate it into a set of mathematical equations that design the structure. This process is articulated in this paper using the structural design and definition for an aircraft fuselage section as an exemplar.

Numerical Method for Cost-Weight Optimisation of Stringer-Skin Panels

The need to integrate cost into the early product definition process as an engineering parameter is addressed. The application studied is a fuselage panel that is typical for commercial transport regional jets. Consequently, a semi-empirical numerical analysis using reference data was coupled to model the structural integrity of thin-walled structures with regard to material failure and buckling: skin, stringer, flexural, and interrivet. The optimization process focuses on direct operating cost (DOC) as a function of acquisition cost and fuel burn. It was found that the ratio of acquisition cost to fuel burn was typically 4:3 and that there was a 10% improvement in the DOC for the minimal DOC condition over the minimal weight condition because of the manufacturing cost saving from having a reduced number of larger-area stringers and a slightly thicker skin than that preferred by the minimal weight condition. Also note that the minimal manufacturing cost condition was slightly better than the minimal weight condition, which highlights the key finding: The traditional minimal weight condition is a dated and suboptimal approach to airframe structural design.

The 'Belfast' timber roof truss - is it sustainable and relevant today?

In the early 19th century the requirement for clear span industrial buildings brought about the development of a variety of timber truss types. The Belfast truss was introduced circa 1860 to meet the demand for efficient wide span industrial buildings. It has essentially a bow-string configuration with a curved top chord, straight horizontal bottom chord and close-spaced lattice web. Several thousand still exist in Ireland, many in buildings of historic significance. This paper sets out to demonstrate the efficiency of the Belfast truss and to show that, by modern structural design criteria, the concept, member sizes and joint details were well chosen. Trusses in historic buildings can be replicated almost exactly as originally fabricated. Results of a theoretical study are compared with the experimental behaviour of two full-scale trusses: one a replacement truss, tested in the laboratory; the other an 80-year-old truss tested on site. In addition, experimental results from a manufacturers archive material of full-scale truss tests carried out about 100 years ago are compared with theoretical models. As well as considering their significance in building conservation the paper proposes that Belfast trusses are an attractive sustainable alternative to other roof structures. The analysis, design, fabrication and testing of trusses have resulted in a better understanding of their behaviour which is not only of historic interest and fundamental to the repair/restoration of existing trusses, but also relevant to the design of modern timber trusses and the promotion of a sustainable form of roof construction.

Maleimide spacers as versatile linkers in the synthesis of bioconjugates of anthracyclines

This review covers the structural design and versatile use of maleimide spacers in the preparation of bioconjugates of the anthracyclines doxorubicin and daunorubicin. It underpins the research conducted in our group on the preparation of conjugates of daunorubicin and transferrin.

The Behavior of compressively loaded stiffener runout specimens - Part II: Finite element analysis

The termination of stiffeners in composite aircraft structures give rise to regions of high interlaminar shear and peel stresses as the load in the stiffener is diffused into the skin. This is of particular concern in co-cured composite stiffened structures where there is a relatively low resistance to through-thickness stress components at the skin-stiffener interface. In Part I, experimental results of tested specimens highlighted the influence of local design parameters on their structural response. Indeed some of the observed behavior was unexpected. There is a need to be able to analyse a range of changes in geometry rapidly to allow the analysis to form an integral part of the structural design process.

This work presents the development of a finite element methodology for modelling the failure process of these critical regions. An efficient thick shell element formulation is presented and this element is used in conjuction with the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) to predict the crack growth characteristics of the modelled specimens. Three specimens were modelled and the qualitative aspects of crack growth were captured successfully. The shortcomings in the quantitative correlation between the predicted and observed failure loads are discussed. There was evidence to suggest that high through-thickness compressive stresses enhanced the fracture toughness in these critical regions.

Monte Carlo simulation of complex cohesive fracture in random heterogeneous quasi-brittle materials

A numerical method is developed to simulate complex two-dimensional crack propagation in quasi-brittle materials considering random heterogeneous fracture properties. Potential cracks are represented by pre-inserted cohesive elements with tension and shear softening constitutive laws modelled by spatially varying Weibull random fields. Monte Carlo simulations of a concrete specimen under uni-axial tension were carried out with extensive investigation of the effects of important numerical algorithms and material properties on numerical efficiency and stability, crack propagation processes and load-carrying capacities. It was found that the homogeneous model led to incorrect crack patterns and load–displacement curves with strong mesh-dependence, whereas the heterogeneous model predicted realistic, complicated fracture processes and load-carrying capacity of little mesh-dependence. Increasing the variance of the tensile strength random fields with increased heterogeneity led to reduction in the mean peak load and increase in the standard deviation. The developed method provides a simple but effective tool for assessment of structural reliability and calculation of characteristic material strength for structural design.

pH-Sensitive brush polymer-drug conjugates by ring-opening metathesis copolymerization

Representing a new category of polymer-drug conjugates, brush polymer-drug conjugates were prepared by ring-opening metathesis copolymerization. Following judicious structural design, these conjugates exhibited well-shielded drug moieties, significant water solubility, well-defined nanostructures, and acid-triggered drug release.

Local materials for building houses: laterite valorization in Africa

This paper presents the preliminary results of geological and geomechanical studies on the laterite stone exploited at Dano quarry in Burkina Faso. The field work described the geological structure of quarry sites and their environment to determine the rocks alteration and the links between the bedrock and lateritic material. Physic-mechanical properties have been studied for assessing the potentiality of this material for lightweight housing, to be completed with thermal and environmental considerations. Some social and economic evaluations are in progress in order to foster its utilization under local conditions.