Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Trends in coronary risk factors in the WHO MONICA Project

Background. The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project was established to determine how trends in event rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) and, optionally, stroke were related to trends in classic coronary risk factors. Risk factors were therefore monitored over ten years across 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents (overall period covered: 1979-1996). Methods. A standard protocol was applied across participating centres, in at least two, and usually three, independent surveys conducted on random samples of the study populations, well separated within the 10-year study period. Results. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations (35-64 years) but in females the majority showed increases. Systolic blood pressure showed decreasing trends in the majority of centres in both sexes. Mean levels of cholesterol generally showed downward trends, which, although the changes were small, had large effects on risk. There was a trend of increasing body mass index (BMI) with half the female populations and two-thirds of the male populations showing a significant increase. Conclusions. It is feasible to monitor the classic CHD risk factors in diverse populations through repeated surveys over a decade. In general, the risk factor trends are downwards in most populations but in particular, an increase in smoking in women in many populations and increasing BMI, especially in men, are worrying findings with significant public health implications.

Association of European population levels of thrombotic and inflammatory factors with risk of coronary heart disease: the MONICA Optional Haemostasis Study

Aims Classical risk factors do not fully explain international differences in risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We therefore measured thrombotic and inflammatory markers in a substudy of the WHO MONICA project and correlated these with CHD event rates.

Contribution of 30 Biomarkers to 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in 2 population cohorts: The MONICA, risk, genetics, archiving and monograph (MORGAM) biomarker project

Background— Cardiovascular risk estimation by novel biomarkers needs assessment in disease-free population cohorts, followed up for incident cardiovascular events, assaying the serum and plasma archived at baseline. We report results from 2 cohorts in such a continuing study.
Methods and Results— Thirty novel biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways were evaluated in 7915 men and women of the FINRISK97 population cohort with 538 incident cardiovascular events at 10 years (fatal or nonfatal coronary or stroke events), from which a biomarker score was developed and then validated in the 2551 men of the Belfast Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) cohort (260 events). No single biomarker consistently improved risk estimation in FINRISK97 men and FINRISK97 women and the Belfast PRIME Men cohort after allowing for confounding factors; however, the strongest associations (with hazard ratio per SD in FINRISK97 men) were found for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1.23), C-reactive protein (1.23), B-type natriuretic peptide (1.19), and sensitive troponin I (1.18). A biomarker score was developed from the FINRISK97 cohort with the use of regression coefficients and lasso methods, with selection of troponin I, C-reactive protein, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Adding this score to a conventional risk factor model in the Belfast PRIME Men cohort validated it by improved c-statistics (P=0.004) and integrated discrimination (P<0.0001) and led to significant reclassification of individuals into risk categories (P=0.0008).
Conclusions— The addition of a biomarker score including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and sensitive troponin I to a conventional risk model improved 10-year risk estimation for cardiovascular events in 2 middle-aged European populations. Further validation is needed in other populations and age groups.

Impact of Age on the Importance of Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressures for Stroke Risk:The MOnica, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project

This study investigates age-related shifts in the relative importance of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressures as predictors of stroke and whether these relations are influenced by other cardiovascular risk factors. Using 34 European cohorts from the MOnica, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project with baseline between 1982 and 1997, 68 551 subjects aged 19 to 78 years, without cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive treatment, were included. During a mean of 13.2 years of follow-up, stroke incidence was 2.8%. Stroke risk was analyzed using hazard ratios per 10-mm Hg/5-mm Hg increase in SBP/DBP by multivariate-adjusted Cox regressions, including SBP and DBP simultaneously. Because of nonlinearity, DBP was analyzed separately for DBP =71 mm Hg and DBP

Adiponectin multimers, body weight and markers of cardiovascular risk in adolescence: Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project:Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Background:Research examining the relationship between adiponectin (AN) isoforms, body weight and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors is limited, particularly in younger populations. Objectives:To investigate the inter-relationships between AN isoforms and CV risk factors, and their dependence on body weight status, in adolescents. Design:Blood samples from 92 obese, 92 overweight and 92 normal weight age- and sex-matched adolescents were analysed for traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk biomarkers and also total, high molecular weight (HMW), medium and low molecular weight (LMW) AN. Results:A significant inverse association was observed between total and HMW AN and waist-hip ratio (P=0.015, P=0.006, respectively), triglycerides (P=0.003, P=0.003, respectively) and systolic blood pressure (P=0.012, P=0.024, respectively) and a significant positive association with high-density lipoprotein (P<0.001, P<0.001, respectively) in multi-adjusted analyses. There was no evidence of a relationship between multimeric AN and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. There was also little evidence of a relationship between LMW AN and CVD risk factors. There was a strong, body mass index (BMI)-independent, association between AN, CVD biomarkers and the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype. Conclusion:Prominent, BMI-independent associations between total and HMW AN, but not LMW AN, and CVD risk factors were already evident in this young population. This research in adolescents supports the contention that AN subfractions may have different biological actions. These associations in apparently healthy adolescents suggest an important role for AN and its subfractions in the pathogenesis of metabolic syndrome traits and indicate that the potential for total or HMW AN to act as early universal biomarkers of CV risk warrants further study.

Resource utilization and cost analyses of home-based palliative care service provision:The Niagara West End-of-Life Shared-Care Project

Background: Increasing emphasis is being placed on the economics of health care service delivery - including home-based palliative care. Aim: This paper analyzes resource utilization and costs of a shared-care demonstration project in rural Ontario (Canada) from the public health care system's perspective. Design: To provide enhanced end-of-life care, the shared-care approach ensured exchange of expertise and knowledge and coordination of services in line with the understood goals of care. Resource utilization and costs were tracked over the 15 month study period from January 2005 to March 2006. Results: Of the 95 study participants (average age 71 years), 83 had a cancer diagnosis (87%); the non-cancer diagnoses (12 patients, 13%) included mainly advanced heart diseases and COPD. Community Care Access Centre and Enhanced Palliative Care Team-based homemaking and specialized nursing services were the most frequented offerings, followed by equipment/transportation services and palliative care consults for pain and symptom management. Total costs for all patient-related services (in 2007 CAN) were 1,625,658.07 - or 17,112.19 per patient/117.95 per patient day. Conclusion: While higher than expenditures previously reported for a cancer-only population in an urban Ontario setting, the costs were still within the parameters of the US Medicare Hospice Benefits, on a par with the per diem funding assigned for long-term care homes and lower than both average alternate level of care and hospital costs within the Province of Ontario. The study results may assist service planners in the appropriate allocation of resources and service packaging to meet the complex needs of palliative care populations. © 2012 The Author(s).

WHO guidelines for a healthy diet and mortality from cardiovascular disease in European and American elderly: the CHANCES project

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged ≥60 y.

DESIGN: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model.

RESULTS: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I(2) = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I(2) = not applicable).

CONCLUSION: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States.

UK consensus project on quality in palliative day services: developing a quality indicator set using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method

Introduction
Evaluating quality of palliative day services is essential for assessing care across diverse settings, and for monitoring quality improvement approaches.

Aim
To develop a set of quality indicators for assessment of all aspects (structure, process and outcome) of care in palliative day services.

Methods
Using a modified version of the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method (Fitch et al., 2001), a multidisciplinary panel of 16 experts independently completed a survey rating the appropriateness of 182 potential quality indicators previously identified during a systematic evidence review. Panel members then attended a one day, face-to-face meeting where indicators were discussed and subsequently re-rated. Panel members were also asked to rate the feasibility and necessity of measuring each indicator.

Results
71 indicators classified as inappropriate during the survey were removed based on median appropriateness ratings and level of agreement. Following the panel discussions, a further 60 were removed based on appropriateness and feasibility ratings, level of agreement and assessment of necessity. Themes identified during the panel discussion and findings of the evidence review were used to translate the remaining 51 indicators into a final set of 27.

Conclusion
The final indicator set included information on rationale and supporting evidence, methods of assessment, risk adjustment, and recommended performance levels. Further implementation work will test the suitability of this ‘toolkit’ for measurement and benchmarking. The final indicator set provides the basis for standardised assessment of quality across services, including care delivered in community and primary care settings.

Reference

• Fitch K, Bernstein SJ, Aguilar MD, et al. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User’s Manual. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation; 2001. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1269