Causal conjunction fallacies: The roles of causal strength and mental resources

In two experiments we tested the prediction derived from Tversky and Kahneman's (1983) work on the causal conjunction fallacy that the strength of the causal connection between constituent events directly affects the magnitude of the causal conjunction fallacy. We also explored whether any effects of perceived causal strength were due to graded output from heuristic Type 1 reasoning processes or the result of analytic Type 2 reasoning processes. As predicted, Experiment 1 demonstrated that fallacy rates were higher for strongly than for weakly related conjunctions. Weakly related conjunctions in turn attracted higher rates of fallacious responding than did unrelated conjunctions. Experiment 2 showed that a concurrent memory load increased rates of fallacious responding for strongly related but not for weakly related conjunctions. We interpret these results as showing that manipulations of the strength of the perceived causal relationship between the conjuncts result in graded output from heuristic reasoning process and that additional mental resources are required to suppress strong heuristic output.

Development of a value-added soil conditioner from high shear co-granulation of organic waste and limestone powder

This paper reports on a technical feasibility study of the production of organo-mineral fertiliser from the co-granulation of limestone powders with tea waste. The results from this preliminary study show that the co-granulation of tea waste provided an alternative method of waste recovery, as it converts the waste into a value-added product. Fertiliser granules were successfully produced from various compositions of limestone and tea waste. The effect of tea waste concentration on granule strength was analysed; the granule strength
was in the range 0.2 to 1.8 MPa depending on powder composition; increasing the tea waste mass fraction resulted in a reduction in granule strength.Varying the teawaste to limestone ratio also influenced the compressibility of the granules; the granules compressibility increased with increasing tea waste mass fraction. It was further found that increasing the mass fraction of tea waste in the binary mixture of powder reduced the granule median size of the batch.

Synthesis of caffeic acid and p-hydroxybenzoic acid molecularly imprinted polymers and their application for the selective extraction of polyphenols from olive mill waste waters

Using caffeic acid and p-hydroxybenzoic acid as templates, two molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) were prepared that were used for isolation of polyphenols from olive mill waste water samples (OMWWs) without previous pre-treatment. For the preparation of the caffeic acid MIPs 4-vinylpyridine, allylurea, allylaniline and methacrylic acid were tested as functional monomers, ethylene glycol dimethylacrylate (EDMA), pentaerythritol trimethylacrylate (PETRA) and divinylbenzene 80 (DVB80) as cross-linkers and tetrahydrofuran as porogen. For p-hydroxybenzoic acid 4-vinylpyridine, allylurea and allylaniline were tested as functional monomers, EDMA and PETRA as cross-linkers and acetonitrile as porogen. The performance of the synthesized polymers was evaluated against seven structurally related compounds by means of polymer-based HPLC. The two polymers that presented the most interesting properties were further evaluated by batch rebinding and from the derived isotherms their capacity and binding strength were determined. Using solid-phase extraction (SPE), their ability to recognize and bind the template molecule from an aqueous solution as well as the pH dependence of the binding strength were explored. After establishing the best SPE protocol, an aqueous model mixture of compounds and a raw OMWWs sample were loaded on the two best polymers. The result of the consecutive use of the two polymers on the same sample was explored. It was concluded that acidic conditions favour the recognition abilities of both polymers and that they can be used for a quick and efficient isolation of the polyphenol fraction directly from raw OMWW.

Accumulating research: a systematic account of how cumulative meta-analyses would have provided knowledge, improved health, reduced harm and saved resources

BACKGROUND: "Cumulative meta-analysis" describes a statistical procedure to calculate, retrospectively, summary estimates from the results of similar trials every time the results of a further trial in the series had become available. In the early 1990 s, comparisons of cumulative meta-analyses of treatments for myocardial infarction with advice promulgated through medical textbooks showed that research had continued long after robust estimates of treatment effects had accumulated, and that medical textbooks had overlooked strong, existing evidence from trials. Cumulative meta-analyses have subsequently been used to assess what could have been known had new studies been informed by systematic reviews of relevant existing evidence and how waste might have been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a systematic approach to identify and summarise the findings of cumulative meta-analyses of studies of the effects of clinical interventions, published from 1992 to 2012. Searches were done of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and Science Citation Index. A total of 50 eligible reports were identified, including more than 1,500 cumulative meta-analyses. A variety of themes are illustrated with specific examples. The studies showed that initially positive results became null or negative in meta-analyses as more trials were done; that early null or negative results were over-turned; that stable results (beneficial, harmful and neutral) would have been seen had a meta-analysis been done before the new trial; and that additional trials had been much too small to resolve the remaining uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS: This large, unique collection of cumulative meta-analyses highlights how a review of the existing evidence might have helped researchers, practitioners, patients and funders make more informed decisions and choices about new trials over decades of research. This would have led to earlier uptake of effective interventions in practice, less exposure of trial participants to less effective treatments, and reduced waste resulting from unjustified research.