16 resultados para Expected First Passage Time
Resumo:
First-order time remaining until a moving observer will pass an environmental element is optically specified in two different ways. The specification provided by global tau (based on the pattern of change of angular bearing) requires that the element is stationary and that the direction of motion is accurately detected, whereas the specification provided by composite tau (based on the patterns of change of optical size and optical distance) does not require either of these. We obtained converging evidence,for our hypothesis. that observers are sensitive to composite tau in four experiments involving, relative judgments of, time to, passage with forced-choice methodology. Discrimination performance was enhanced in the presence of a local expansion component, while being unaffected when the detection of the direction of heading was impaired. Observers relied on the information carried in composite tau rather than on the information carried in its constituent components. Finally, performance was similar under conditions of observer motion and conditions of object motion. Because composite tau specifies first-order time remaining for a large number of situations, the different ways in which it may be detected are discussed.
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The tight-binding (TB) approach to the modelling of electrical conduction in small structures is introduced. Different equivalent forms of the TB expression for the electrical current in a nanoscale junction are derived. The use of the formalism to calculate the current density and local potential is illustrated by model examples. A first-principles time-dependent TB formalism for calculating current-induced forces and the dynamical response of atoms is presented. An earlier expression for current-induced forces under steady-state conditions is generalized beyond local charge neutrality and beyond orthogonal TB. Future directions in the modelling of power dissipation and local heating in nanoscale conductors are discussed.
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In four experiments we examined the nature of the information used in judging whether events would or would not give rise to a collision in the near future. Observers were tested in situations depicting approaches between two objects (lateral approaches) and approaches between an object and the point of observation (head-on approaches), with objects moving according to constant deceleration or sinusoidal deceleration patterns. Judgments were found to be based, to a large extent, on the (in)sufficiency of current deceleration to avoid upcoming collision, as specified optically by tau-dot (tau over dot). However, the information specified, by tau (tau), that is the current (first-order) time remaining until contact, was also found to play a significant role. We deduce that judgment of upcoming collision is based on the detection Of T and its evolution over time, suggesting that observers are sensitive to Deltatau rather than to tau over dot itself.
Resumo:
Baited cameras are often used for abundance estimation wherever alternative techniques are precluded, e.g. in abyssal systems and areas such as reefs. This method has thus far used models of the arrival process that are deterministic and, therefore, permit no estimate of precision.
Furthermore, errors due to multiple counting of fish and missing those not seen by the camera have restricted the technique to using only the time of first arrival, leaving a lot of data redundant. Here, we reformulate the arrival process using a stochastic model, which allows the precision of abundance
estimates to be quantified. Assuming a non-gregarious, cross-current-scavenging fish, we show that prediction of abundance from first arrival time is extremely uncertain. Using example data, we show
that simple regression-based prediction from the initial (rising) slope of numbers at the bait gives good precision, accepting certain assumptions. The most precise abundance estimates were obtained
by including the declining phase of the time series, using a simple model of departures, and taking account of scavengers beyond the camera’s view, using a hidden Markov model.
Resumo:
Objective—To determine whether genogroup 1 porcine torque teno virus (g1-TTV) can potentiate clinical disease associated with porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2).
Sample population—33 gnotobiotic baby pigs.
Procedures—Pigs were allocated into 7 groups: group A, 5 uninoculated control pigs from 3 litters; group B, 4 pigs oronasally inoculated with PCV2 alone; group C, 4 pigs inoculated IP with first-passage g1-TTV alone; group D, 4 pigs inoculated IP with fourth-passage g1-TTV alone; group E, 6 pigs inoculated IP with first-passage g1-TTV and then oronasally inoculated with PCV2 7 days later; group F, 6 pigs inoculated IP with fourth-passage g1-TTV and then inoculated oronasally with PCV2 7 days later; and group G, 4 pigs inoculated oro-nasally with PCV2 and then inoculated IP with fourth-passage g1-TTV 7 days later.
Results—6 of 12 pigs inoculated with g1-TTV prior to PCV2 developed acute onset of postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS). None of the pigs inoculated with g1-TTV alone or PCV2 alone or that were challenge exposed to g1-TTV after establishment of infection with PCV2 developed clinical illness. Uninoculated control pigs remained healthy.
Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—These data implicated g1-TTV as another viral infection that facilitates PCV2-induced PMWS. This raises the possibility that torque teno viruses in swine may contribute to disease expression currently associated with only a single infectious agent.
Resumo:
This paper presents a detailed description of health care resource utilisation and costs of a pilot interdisciplinary health care model of palliative home care in Ontario, Canada. The descriptive evaluation entailed examining the use of services and costs of the pilot program: patient demographics, length of stay broken down by disposition (discharged, alive, death), access to services/resources, use of family physician and specialist services, and drug use. There were 434 patients included in the pilot program. Total costs were approximately CAN$2.4 million, and the cost per person amounted to approximately CAN$5586.33 with average length of stay equal to over 2 months (64.22 days). One may assume that length of stay would be influenced by the amount of service and support available. Future research might investigate whether in-home palliative home care is the most cost effective and suitable care setting for those patients requiring home care services for expected periods of time. © 2009 SAGE Publications.
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The sexual health of people, particularly young people, in Northern Ireland is currently poor. Yet there has been little research conducted on sexual attitudes and lifestyles. This paper is based on data from the first ever major research project in this field in Northern Ireland. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, it targeted young people aged 14-25. A combination of a self-administered survey questionnaire, focus group discussions and one-to-one interviews was found to be most suitable for the collection of sensitive data on sexuality in a country where the social and moral climate had previously prevented studies of this nature. Information was collected on sexual attitudes and behaviour generally. This paper focuses on one crucial issue: the age of first sexual encounter. It explores the attitudes of young people to that experience and the use of contraception. Many of the findings match those of similar large-scale surveys in England and Wales, including the modal age of first sexual encounter and the influence of peer pressure on decision-making about first sex. There were significant gender differences in both behaviour and attitudes. It is hoped that the research results will influence future education and health policy, which has all too often been based on ignorance.
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Objective: To explore the difficulties experienced by lay-workers, women and health professionals involved in a peer-mentoring programme for first-time mothers living in socially disadvantaged areas. Design: Qualitative study; semi-structured interviews with lay-worker peer-mentoring programme participants at two separate stages of the programme (antenatal and postnatal). Setting: Community based. Participants: 11 women receiving peer-mentoring support (from first hospital antenatal visit to one year postnatal); 11 lay-workers; 2 research midwives. Results: Lay-workers had difficulty initiating contact with women and failure to establish contact affected their morale adversely. They felt that women understood their intended role poorly and attempted to develop relationships with them by sharing personal experiences and offering friendship; women who participated in the programme appreciated this. Developing a peer-mentor relationship was difficult if women lacked interest in the programme or in continuing contact. External influences on peer-mentoring uptake and delivery included family and friends who could prevent or encourage women’s participation and cause difficulties for the lay-worker both in delivering support and arranging follow-up. Lay-workers providing support to women from a different ethnic background experienced difficulties relating to both language and culture: these were perceived to affect peer-mentor relationships adversely. Major personal difficulties for lay-workers related to time constraints in reconciling mentoring requirements with demands of family and other work. Informing midwives of these difficulties helped identify solutions through training and ongoing professional support for the lay-workers. Conclusions: Lay-worker peer support is appreciated by first time mothers but difficulties in initiating contact, developing peer-mentor relationships and external influences such as family, ethnicity and time constraints are relevant to poor uptake and high staff turnover. In developing peer support programmes, awareness of potential difficulties and of how professional support can help resolve these should improve uptake and thus optimise the evaluations of their effectiveness.
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Objective: Interventions to reduce health inequalities for young children and their mothers are important: involving peers is recommended, but evidence of value for this approach is limited. The authors aimed to examine the effect of an innovative tailored peer-mentoring programme, based on perceived needs, for first-time mothers in socio-economically deprived communities. Design: Randomised controlled trial; parallel qualitative study with purposive samples using semistructured interviews. Setting: Socio-economically disadvantaged areas, Belfast. Participants: Primigravidae, aged 16-30 years, without significant co-morbidity. Intervention: Peer-mentoring by a lay-worker fortnightly during pregnancy and monthly for the following year, tailored to participants' wishes (home visits/telephone contacts), additional to usual care. Main outcome measures: Infant psychomotor and mental development (Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID-II)) at 1 year, assessed by an observer blinded to group allocation. Mothers' health at 1 year postnatal (SF-36). Results: Of 534 women invited, 343(64%) participated; 85%, with their children, completed outcome assessments (140 of 172 intervention; 152 of 171 controls). Intervention and control groups did not differ in BSID-II psychomotor (mean difference 1.64, 95% CI -0.94 to 4.21) or mental (-0.81, -2.78 to 1.16) scores, nor SF-36 physical functioning (-5.4, -11.6 to 0.7) or mental health (-1.8, -6.1 to 2.6). Women valued advice given in context of personal experience of child-rearing. Mentors gained health-related knowledge, personal skills and new employment opportunities. Conclusions: Despite possible longer-term social advantage, this peer-mentoring programme showed no benefit for infant development or maternal health at 1 year. Further rigorous evaluation of important outcomes of complex interventions promoting health for children in socially disadvantaged communities is warranted. Trial registration no: ISRCTN 55055030.
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Aiming to establish a rigorous link between macroscopic random motion (described e.g. by Langevin-type theories) and microscopic dynamics, we have undertaken a kinetic-theoretical study of the dynamics of a classical test-particle weakly coupled to a large heat-bath in thermal equilibrium. Both subsystems are subject to an external force field. From the (time-non-local) generalized master equation a Fokker-Planck-type equation follows as a "quasi-Markovian" approximation. The kinetic operator thus defined is shown to be ill-defined; in specific, it does not preserve the positivity of the test-particle distribution function f(x, v; t). Adopting an alternative approach, previously introduced for quantum open systems, is proposed to lead to a correct kinetic operator, which yields all the expected properties. A set of explicit expressions for the diffusion and drift coefficients are obtained, allowing for modelling macroscopic diffusion and dynamical friction phenomena, in terms of an external field and intrinsic physical parameters.
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Background: Evidence from the USA suggests that the home-based Family Nurse Partnership program (FNP), extending from early pregnancy until infants are 24 months, can reduce the risk of child abuse and neglect throughout childhood. FNP is now widely available in the UK. A new variant, Group Family Nurse Partnership (gFNP) offers similar content but in a group context and for a shorter time, until infants are 12 months old. Each group comprises 8 to 12 women with similar expected delivery dates and their partners. Its implementation has been established but there is no evidence of its effectiveness.
Methods/Design: The study comprises a multi-site randomized controlled trial designed to identify the benefits of gFNP compared to standard care. Participants (not eligible for FNP) must be either aged <20 years at their last menstrual period (LMP) with one or more previous live births, or aged 20 to 24 at LMP with low educational qualifications and no previous live births. 'Low educational qualifications' is defined as not having both Maths and English Language GCSE at grade C or higher or, if they have both, no more than four in total at grade C or higher. Exclusions are: under 20 years and previously received home-based FNP and, in either age group, severe psychotic mental illness or not able to communicate in English. Consenting women are randomly allocated (minimized by site and maternal age group) when between 10 and 16 weeks pregnant to either to the 44 session gFNP program or to standard care after the collection of baseline information. Researchers are blind to group assignment. The primary outcomes at 12 months are child abuse potential based on the revised Adult-Adolescent Parenting Inventory and parent/infant interaction coded using the CARE Index based on a video-taped interaction. Secondary outcomes are maternal depression, parenting stress, health related quality of life, social support, and use of services.
Discussion: This is the first study of the effectiveness of gFNP in the UK. Results should inform decision-making about its delivery alongside universal services, potentially enabling a wider range of families to benefit from the FNP curriculum and approach to supporting parenting.
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As discussed in Part I, a large accumulation of mammalian faeces at the mire site in the upper Guil Valley near Mt. Viso, dated to 2168cal 14C yr., provides the first evidence of the passage of substantial but indeterminate numbers of mammals within the time frame of the Punic invasion of Italia. Specialized organic biomarkers bound up in a highly convoluted and bioturbated bed constitute an unusual anomaly in a histosol comprised of fibric and hemist horizons that are usually expected to display horizontal bedding. The presence of deoxycholic acid and ethylcoprostanol derived from faecal matter, coupled with high relative numbers of Clostridia 16S rRNA genes, suggests a substantial accumulation of mammalian faeces at the site over 2000years ago. The results reported here constitute the first chemical and biological evidence of the passage of large numbers of mammals, possibly indicating the route of the Hannibalic army at this time. Combined with the geological analysis reported in Part I, these data provide a background supporting the need for further historical archaeological exploration in this area.