The relationship between counterfactual thinking and emotional reactions to event outcomes: Does one account fit all?

By enabling a comparison between what is and what might have been, counterfactual thoughts amplify our emotional responses to bad outcomes. Well-known demonstrations such as the action effect (the tendency to attribute most regret to a character whose actions brought about a bad outcome) and the temporal order effect (the tendency to undo the last in a series of events leading up to a bad outcome) are often explained in this way. An important difference between these effects is that outcomes are due to decisions in the action effect, whereas in the temporal order effect outcomes are achieved by chance. In Experiment 1, we showed that imposing time pressure leads to a significant reduction in the action but not in the temporal order effect. In Experiment 2, we found that asking participants to evaluate the protagonists (

Optical and near-infrared coverage of SN 2004et: physical parameters and comparison with other Type IIP supernovae

We present new optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy of the Type IIP supernova (SN), SN 2004et. In combination with already published data, this provides one of the most complete studies of optical and NIR data for any Type IIP SN from just after explosion to +500 d. The contribution of the NIR flux to the bolometric light curve is estimated to increase from 15 per cent at explosion to around 50 per cent at the end of the plateau and then declines to 40 per cent at 300 d. SN 2004et is one of the most luminous IIP SNe which has been well studied and characterized, and with a luminosity of log L = 42.3 erg s-1 and a 56Ni mass of 0.06 +/- 0.04 M-circle dot, it is two times brighter than SN 1999em. We provide parametrized bolometric corrections as a function of time since explosion for SN 2004et and three other IIP SNe that have extensive optical and NIR data. These can be used as templates for future events in optical and NIR surveys without full wavelength coverage. We compare the physical parameters of SN 2004et with those of other well-studied IIP SNe and find that the kinetic energies span a range of 1050-1051 erg. We compare the ejected masses calculated from hydrodynamic models with the progenitor masses and limits derived from pre-discovery images. Some of the ejected mass estimates are significantly higher than the progenitor mass estimates, with SN 2004et showing perhaps the most serious mass discrepancy. With the current models, it appears difficult to reconcile 100 d plateau lengths and high expansion velocities with the low ejected masses of 5-6 M-circle dot implied from 7-8 M-circle dot progenitors. The nebular phase is studied using very late-time Hubble Space Telescope photometry, along with optical and NIR spectroscopy. The light curve shows a clear flattening at 600 d in the optical and the NIR, which is likely due to the ejecta impacting on circumstellar material. We further show that the [O i] 6300, 6364 A line strengths in the nebular spectra of four Type IIP SNe imply ejected oxygen masses of 0.5-1.5 M-circle dot.

Comparison of progenitor mass estimates for the type IIP SN 2012A

We present the one-year long observing campaign of SN 2012A which exploded in the nearby (9.8 Mpc) irregular galaxy NGC 3239. The photometric evolution is that of a normal type IIP supernova. The absolute maximum magnitude, with MB = -16.23 +- 0.16 mag. SN2012A reached a peak luminosity of about 2X10**42 erg/s, which is brighter than those of other SNe with a similar 56Ni mass. The latter was estimated from the luminosity in the exponential tail of the light curve and found to be M(56Ni) = 0.011 +-0.004 Msun. The spectral evolution of SN 2012A is also typical of SN IIP, from the early spectra dominated by a blue continuum and very broad (~10**4 km/s) Balmer lines, to the late-photospheric spectra characterized by prominent P-Cygni features of metal lines (Fe II, Sc II, Ba II, Ti II, Ca II, Na ID). The photospheric velocity is moderately low, ~3X10**3 km/s at 50 days, for the low optical depth metal lines. The nebular spectrum obtained 394 days after the shock breakout shows the typical features of SNe IIP and the strength of the [O I] doublet suggests a progenitor of intermediate mass, similar to SN 2004et (~15 Msun). A candidate progenitor for SN 2012A has been identified in deep, pre-explosion K'-band Gemini North (NIRI) images, and found to be consistent with a star with a bolometric magnitude -7.08+-0.36 (log L/Lsun = 4.73 +- 0.14$ dex). The magnitude of the recovered progenitor in archival images points toward a moderate-mass 10.5 (-2/+4.5) Msun star as the precursor of SN 2012A. The explosion parameters and progenitor mass were also estimated by means of a hydrodynamical model, fitting the bolometric light curve, the velocity and the temperature evolution. We found a best fit for a kinetic energy of 0.48 foe, an initial radius of 1.8X10**13 cm and ejecta mass of 12.5 Msun.

Log gf values for astrophysically important transitions Fe II

Aims. In a recent measurement, Meléndez & Barbuy (2009, A&A, 497, 611) report accurate log gf values for 142 important astrophysical lines with wavelengths in the range 4000 Å to 8000 Å. Their results include both solar and laboratory measurements. In this paper, we describe a theoretical study of these lines. Methods. The CIV3 structure codes, combined with our "fine-tuning" extrapolation process, are used to undertake a large-scale CI calculation involving the lowest 262 fine-structure levels belonging to the 3d4s, 3d, 3d4s, 3d4p, and 3d4s4p configurations. Results. We find that many of the 142 transitions are very weak intercombination lines. Other transitions are weak because the dominant configurations in the two levels differ by two orbitals. Conclusions. The comparison between our log gf values and the experimental values generally shows good agreement for most of these transitions, with our theoretical values agreeing slightly more closely with the solar than with the laboratory measurements. A detailed analysis of the small number of transitions for which the agreement between theory and experiment is not as good shows that such disagreements largely arise from severe cancellation due to CI mixing.

Attention-based modulation of tactile stimuli: A comparison between prefrontal lesion patients and healthy age-matched controls

Objectives: To investigate the role of the prefrontal cortex in attention-based modulation of cortical somatosensory processing.

Methods: Six prefrontal stroke patients were compared with eleven neurologically intact older adults during a vibrotactile discrimination task. All subjects attended to stimuli on one digit while ignoring distracter stimuli on a separate digit of the same hand. Subjects were required to report infrequent targets on the attended digit only. Throughout testing electroencephalography was used to measure event-related potentials for both task-relevant and irrelevant stimuli.

Results: Prefrontal patients demonstrated significant changes in cortical somatosensory processing based on attention compared to age-matched controls. This was evident both in early unimodal somatosensory processing (i.e. P100) and in later cortical processing stages (i.e. long-latency positivity). Moreover, there was a tendency towards a tonic loss of inhibition over early somatosensory cortical processing (i.e. P50).

Conclusions: The attention-based modulation noted for neurologically intact older adults was absent in prefrontal lesion patients.

Significance: The present study highlights the important role of prefrontal regions in sustaining inhibition over early sensory cortical processing stages and in modifying somatosensory transmission based on task-relevance. Notably these deficits extend beyond those previously shown to occur as a function of age.

Tephrochronology and the extended intimate (integration of ice‐core, marine and terrestrial records) event stratigraphy 8-128kab2k

The comparison of palaeoclimate records on their own independent timescales is central to the work of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core, MArine and TErrestrial records) network. For the North Atlantic region, an event stratigraphy has been established from the high-precision Greenland ice-core records and the integrated GICC05 chronology. This stratotype provides a palaeoclimate signal to which the timing and nature of palaeoenvironmental change recorded in marine and terrestrial archives can be compared. To facilitate this wider comparison, without assuming synchroneity of climatic change/proxy response, INTIMATE has also focussed on the development of tools to achieve this. In particular the use of time-parallel marker horizons e.g. tephra layers (volcanic ash). Coupled with the recent temporal extension of the Greenland stratotype, as part of this special issue, we present an updated INTIMATE event stratigraphy highlighting key tephra horizons used for correlation across Europe and the North Atlantic. We discuss the advantages of such an approach, and the key challenges for the further integration of terrestrial palaeoenvironmental records with those from ice cores and the marine realm.

Evidence reasoning for event inference in smart transport video surveillance

In this paper we present a new event recognition framework, based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, which combines the evidence from multiple atomic events detected by low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed framework employs evidential network modelling of composite events. This approach can effectively handle the uncertainty of the detected events, whilst inferring high-level events that have semantic meaning with high degrees of belief. Our scheme has been comprehensively evaluated against various scenarios that simulate passenger behaviour on public transport platforms such as buses and trains. The average accuracy rate of our method is 81% in comparison to 76% by a standard rule-based method.

Aromatase inhibitors versus tamoxifen in early breast cancer: patient-level meta-analysis of the randomised trials

BACKGROUND: The optimal ways of using aromatase inhibitors or tamoxifen as endocrine treatment for early breast cancer remains uncertain.

METHODS: We undertook meta-analyses of individual data on 31 920 postmenopausal women with oestrogen-receptor-positive early breast cancer in the randomised trials of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen; of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5; and of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen. Primary outcomes were any recurrence of breast cancer, breast cancer mortality, death without recurrence, and all-cause mortality. Intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded aromatase inhibitor versus tamoxifen first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·64, 95% CI 0·52-0·78) and 2-4 (RR 0·80, 0·68-0·93), and non-significantly thereafter. 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (12·1% vs 14·2%; RR 0·85, 0·75-0·96; 2p=0·009). In the comparison of 5 years of aromatase inhibitor versus 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 0-1 (RR 0·74, 0·62-0·89) but not while both groups received aromatase inhibitors during years 2-4, or thereafter; overall in these trials, there were fewer recurrences with 5 years of aromatase inhibitors than with tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitors (RR 0·90, 0·81-0·99; 2p=0·045), though the breast cancer mortality reduction was not significant (RR 0·89, 0·78-1·03; 2p=0·11). In the comparison of 2-3 years of tamoxifen then aromatase inhibitor to year 5 versus 5 years of tamoxifen, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors significantly during years 2-4 (RR 0·56, 0·46-0·67) but not subsequently, and 10-year breast cancer mortality was lower with switching to aromatase inhibitors than with remaining on tamoxifen (8·7% vs 10·1%; 2p=0·015). Aggregating all three types of comparison, recurrence RRs favoured aromatase inhibitors during periods when treatments differed (RR 0·70, 0·64-0·77), but not significantly thereafter (RR 0·93, 0·86-1·01; 2p=0·08). Breast cancer mortality was reduced both while treatments differed (RR 0·79, 0·67-0·92), and subsequently (RR 0·89, 0·81-0·99), and for all periods combined (RR 0·86, 0·80-0·94; 2p=0·0005). All-cause mortality was also reduced (RR 0·88, 0·82-0·94; 2p=0·0003). RRs differed little by age, body-mass index, stage, grade, progesterone receptor status, or HER2 status. There were fewer endometrial cancers with aromatase inhibitors than tamoxifen (10-year incidence 0·4% vs 1·2%; RR 0·33, 0·21-0·51) but more bone fractures (5-year risk 8·2% vs 5·5%; RR 1·42, 1·28-1·57); non-breast-cancer mortality was similar.

INTERPRETATION: Aromatase inhibitors reduce recurrence rates by about 30% (proportionately) compared with tamoxifen while treatments differ, but not thereafter. 5 years of an aromatase inhibitor reduces 10-year breast cancer mortality rates by about 15% compared with 5 years of tamoxifen, hence by about 40% (proportionately) compared with no endocrine treatment.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.