Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

The Impact of Vehicle-to-Grid on Electric Power Systems: A Review

Environmental concerns and fossil fuel shortage put pressure on both power and transportation systems. Electric vehicles (EVs) are thought to be a good solution to these problems. With EV adoption, energy flow is two way: from grid to vehicle and from vehicle to grid, which is known as vehicle-to-grid (V2G) today. This paper considers electric power systems and provides a review of the impact of V2G on power system stability. The concept and basics of V2G technology are introduced at first, followed by a description of EV application in the world. Several technical issues are detailed in V2G modeling and capacity forecasting, steady-state analysis and stability analysis. Research trends of such topics are declared at last.

Analysis of Transmission Loss with Droop Control in a Multi-Terminal HVDC System

High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) electric power transmission is a promising technology for integrating offshore wind farms and interconnecting power grids in different regions. In order to maintain the DC voltage, droop control has been widely used. Transmission line loss constitutes an import part of the total power loss in a multi-terminal HVDC scheme. In this paper, the relation between droop controller design and transmission loss has been investigated. Different MTDC layout configurations are compared to examine the effect of droop controller design on the transmission loss.

Damping torque analysis for DC bus implemented damping control

Damping torque analysis is a well-developed technique for understanding and studying power system oscillations. This paper presents the applications of damping torque analysis for DC bus implemented damping control in power transmission networks in two examples. The first example is the investigation of damping effect of shunt VSC (Voltage Source Converter) based FACTS voltage control, i.e., STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) voltage control. It is shown in the paper that STATCOM voltage control mainly contributes synchronous torque and hence has little effect on the damping of power system oscillations. The second example is the damping control implemented by a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) installed in a power system. Damping torque analysis reveals that when BESS damping control is realized by regulating exchange of active and reactive power between the BESS and power system respectively, BESS damping control exhibits different properties. It is concluded by damping torque analysis that BESS damping control implemented by regulating active power is better with less interaction with BESS voltage control and more robust to variations of power system operating conditions. In the paper, all analytical conclusions obtained are demonstrated by simulation results of example power systems.

Transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical energy market

This paper presents a new method for transmission loss allocation in a deregulated electrical power market. The proposed method is based on physical flow through transmission lines. The contributions of individual loads to the line flows are used as basis for allocating transmission losses to different loads. With minimum assumptions, that sound to be reasonable and cannot be rejected, a novel loss allocation formula is derived. The assumptions made are: a number of currents sharing a transmission line distribute themselves over the cross section in the same manner; that distribution causes the minimum possible power loss. Application of the proposed method is straightforward. It requires only a solved power flow and any simple algorithm for power flow tracing. Both active and reactive powers are considered in the loss allocation procedure. Results of application show the accuracy of the proposed method compared with the commonly used procedures.

Multi-Attribute SCADA-Specific Intrusion Detection System for Power Networks

The increased interconnectivity and complexity of supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems in power system networks has exposed the systems to a multitude of potential vulnerabilities. In this paper, we present a novel approach for a next-generation SCADA-specific intrusion detection system (IDS). The proposed system analyzes multiple attributes in order to provide a comprehensive solution that is able to mitigate varied cyber-attack threats. The multiattribute IDS comprises a heterogeneous white list and behavior-based concept in order to make SCADA cybersystems more secure. This paper also proposes a multilayer cyber-security framework based on IDS for protecting SCADA cybersecurity in smart grids without compromising the availability of normal data. In addition, this paper presents a SCADA-specific cybersecurity testbed to investigate simulated attacks, which has been used in this paper to validate the proposed approach.

Managing the variability of supply in the European power system with high wind energy penetration

The power system of the future will have a hierarchical structure created by layers of system control from via regional high-voltage transmission through to medium and low-voltage distribution. Each level will have generation sources such as large-scale offshore wind, wave, solar thermal, nuclear directly connected to this Supergrid and high levels of embedded generation, connected to the medium-voltage distribution system. It is expected that the fuel portfolio will be dominated by offshore wind in Northern Europe and PV in Southern Europe. The strategies required to manage the coordination of supply-side variability with demand-side variability will include large scale interconnection, demand side management, load aggregation and storage in the concept of the Supergrid combined with the Smart Grid. The design challenge associated with this will not only include control topology, data acquisition, analysis and communications technologies, but also the selection of fuel portfolio at a macro level. This paper quantifies the amount of demand side management, storage and so-called ‘back-up generation’ needed to support an 80% renewable energy portfolio in Europe by 2050.

Secure data networks for electrical distribution applications

Smart Grids are characterized by the application of information communication technology (ICT) to solve electrical energy challenges. Electric power networks span large geographical areas, thus a necessary component of many Smart Grid applications is a wide area network (WAN). For the Smart Grid to be successful, utilities must be confident that the communications infrastructure is secure. This paper describes how a WAN can be deployed using WiMAX radio technology to provide high bandwidth communications to areas not commonly served by utility communications, such as generators embedded in the distribution network. A planning exercise is described, using Northern Ireland as a case study. The suitability of the technology for real-time applications is assessed using experimentally obtained latency data.

Identification of Microturbine Model for Long-term Dynamic Analysis of Distribution Networks

As one of the most successfully commercialized distributed energy resources, the long-term effects of microturbines (MTs) on the distribution network has not been fully investigated due to the complex thermo-fluid-mechanical energy conversion processes. This is further complicated by the fact that the parameter and internal data of MTs are not always available to the electric utility, due to different ownerships and confidentiality concerns. To address this issue, a general modeling approach for MTs is proposed in this paper, which allows for the long-term simulation of the distribution network with multiple MTs. First, the feasibility of deriving a simplified MT model for long-term dynamic analysis of the distribution network is discussed, based on the physical understanding of dynamic processes that occurred within MTs. Then a three-stage identification method is developed in order to obtain a piecewise MT model and predict electro-mechanical system behaviors with saturation. Next, assisted with the electric power flow calculation tool, a fast simulation methodology is proposed to evaluate the long-term impact of multiple MTs on the distribution network. Finally, the model is verified by using Capstone C30 microturbine experiments, and further applied to the dynamic simulation of a modified IEEE 37-node test feeder with promising results.

A Wavelet-Prony Method for Modeling of Fixed-Speed Wind Farm Low-Frequency Power Pulsations

The increasing penetration of wind generation on the Island of Ireland has been accompanied by close investigation of low-frequency pulsations contained within active power flow. A primary concern is excitation of low-frequency oscillation modes already present on the system, particularly the 0.75 Hz mode as a consequence of interconnection between the Northern and Southern power system networks. In order to determine whether the prevalence of wind generation has a negative effect (excites modes) or positive impact (damping of modes) on the power system, oscillations must be measured and characterised. Using time – frequency methods, this paper presents work that has been conducted to extract features from low-frequency active power pulsations to determine the composition of oscillatory modes which may impact on dynamic stability. The paper proposes a combined wavelet-Prony method to extract modal components and determine damping factors. The method is exemplified using real data obtained from wind farm measurements.

Voltage and power quality improvement strategy for a DFIG wind turbine during variable wind conditions

This paper presents a voltage and power quality enhancement scheme for a doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) wind farm during variable wind conditions. The wind profiles were derived considering the measured data at a DFIG wind farm located in Northern Ireland (NI). The aggregated DFIG wind farm model was validated using measured data at a wind farm during variable generation. The voltage control strategy was developed considering the X/R ratio of the wind farm feeder which connects the wind farm and the grid. The performance of the proposed strategy was evaluated for different X/R ratios, and wind profiles with different characteristics. The impact of flicker propagation along the wind farm feeder and effectiveness of the proposed strategy is also evaluated with consumer loads connected to the wind farm feeder. It is shown that voltage variability and short-term flicker severity is significantly reduced following implementation of the novel strategy described.

Analysis of Fixed-Speed Wind Farm Low-Frequency Power Pulsations using a Wavelet-Prony Method

The increasing penetration of wind generation on the Island of Ireland has been accompanied by close investigation of low-frequency periodic pulsations contained within the active power flow from different wind farms. A primary concern is excitation of existing low-frequency oscillation modes already present on the system, particularly the 0.75 Hz mode as a consequence of the interconnected Northern and Southern power system networks. Recently grid code requirements on the Northern Ireland power system have been updated stipulating that wind farms connected after 2005 must be able to control the magnitude of oscillations in the range of 0.25 - 1.75 Hz to within 1% of the wind farm's registered output. In order to determine whether wind farm low-frequency oscillations have a negative effect (excite other modes) or possibly a positive impact (damping of existing modes) on the power system, the oscillations at the point of connection must be measured and characterised. Using time - frequency methods, research presented in this paper has been conducted to extract signal features from measured low-frequency active power pulsations produced by wind farms to determine the effective composition of possible oscillatory modes which may have a detrimental effect on system dynamic stability. The paper proposes a combined wavelet-Prony method to extract modal components and determine damping factors. The method is exemplified using real data obtained from wind farm measurements.

Droop setting design for multi-terminal HVDC grids considering voltage deviation impacts

In multi-terminal high voltage direct current (HVDC) grids, the widely deployed droop control strategies will cause a non-uniform voltage deviation on the power flow, which is determined by the network topology and droop settings. This voltage deviation results in an inconsistent power flow pattern when the dispatch references are changed, which could be detrimental to the operation and seamless integration of HVDC grids. In this paper, a novel droop setting design method is proposed to address this problem for a more precise power dispatch. The effects of voltage deviations on the power sharing accuracy and transmission loss are analysed. This paper shows that there is a trade-off between minimizing the voltage deviation, ensuring a proper power delivery and reducing the total transmission loss in the droop setting design. The efficacy of the proposed method is confirmed by simulation studies.