Does climate change information affect stated risks of pine beetle impacts on forests? An application of the exchangeability method

Risks are an essential feature of future climate change impacts. We explore whether knowledge that climate change might be the source of increasing pine beetle impacts on public or private forests affects stated risk estimates of damage, elicited using the exchangeability method. We find that across subjects the difference between public and private forest status does not influence stated risks, but the group told that global warming is the cause of pine beetle damage has significantly higher risk perceptions than the group not given this information.

Extinction risk from climate change

Climate change over the past ,30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species1,2 and has been implicated in one species-level extinction3. Using projections of species’ distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (,18%) than mid-range (,24%) and maximum change (,35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and food safety within the island of Ireland

Climate and other environmental change presents a number of challenges for effective food safety. Food production, distribution and consumption takes place within functioning ecosystems but this backdrop is often ignored or treated as static and unchanging. The risks presented by environmental change include novel pests and diseases, often caused by problem species expanding their spatial distributions as they track changing conditions, toxin generation in crops, direct effects on crop and animal production, consequences for trade networks driven by shifting economic viability of production methods in changing environments and finally, wholesale transformation of ecosystems as they respond to novel climatic regimes.