Assessment of the benefits of Discrete Conditional Survival Models in modelling ambulance response times

Many of the challenges faced in health care delivery can be informed through building models. In particular, Discrete Conditional Survival (DCS) models, recently under development, can provide policymakers with a flexible tool to assess time-to-event data. The DCS model is capable of modelling the survival curve based on various underlying distribution types and is capable of clustering or grouping observations (based on other covariate information) external to the distribution fits. The flexibility of the model comes through the choice of data mining techniques that are available in ascertaining the different subsets and also in the choice of distribution types available in modelling these informed subsets. This paper presents an illustrated example of the Discrete Conditional Survival model being deployed to represent ambulance response-times by a fully parameterised model. This model is contrasted against use of a parametric accelerated failure-time model, illustrating the strength and usefulness of Discrete Conditional Survival models.

New Circus: the benefits of Circus Training for young people in a residential setting,

Circus 1 to 3 is a circus school, based on the concept of New Circus, for boys resident in St. Patrick's Training School, Northern Ireland. The project is designed, not only to teach Circus skills, but also to foster social and personal skills. This report details an evaluation undertaken to assess die extent to which this programme meets these aims. A study of participants Circus records indicated that significant gains in co-operative behaviour, team-work, attitude and participation, as rated by Circus tutors, were evident over the course of boys involvement. A qualitative study was also conducted. These interviews with Circus 1 to 3 participants indicated that this project enhanced the quality of life for boys resident in St. Patrick's Training School. In addition the project, through the use of positive feedback, provides opportunities for boys to develop their social and personal skills. This evaluation concludes that Circus 1 to 3 is a worthwhile and successful endeavour.