An Architecture of a Multi-Agent System for SCADA - Dealing With Uncertainty, Plans and Actions

This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.

Climate change, Hans Jonas and indirect investors

This article considers how corporate behaviour in relation to climate change might be reconfigured and the role that indirect investors might play in this reconfiguring. The article suggests that the consequences of climate change are serious enough that indirect investors might be prevailed upon, using a model of behaviour suggested by the work of Hans Jonas, to pressure institutional investors into demanding changes in corporate policy towards climate change. Jonas' work represents a plea for the recognition and acceptance of responsibility in the face of nature's vulnerability and humanity's power over technology. The article suggests that this ethic can be operationalised in relation to corporate governance by building on the changes in the pattern of investment holdings that have taken place in large public companies in the preceding two decades or so. The idea is to appeal to individuals who may perceive themselves as currently being outsiders – or at least only distant stakeholders in relation to the corporation – to realise the responsibility vested in them as beneficiaries through their interest in pension funds, life assurance policies, annuities and other arm's-length financial arrangements with corporations. The hope is that these individuals may, through the influence of a model of responsibility, become active investors and beneficiaries interested in corporate practices that impact on climate change and, encourage others to do likewise.

European Recommendations for Primary Prevention of Congenital Anomalies: A Joined Effort of EUROCAT and EUROPLAN Projects to Facilitate Inclusion of This Topic in the National Rare Disease Plans

Congenital anomalies (CA) are the paradigm example of rare diseases liable to primary prevention actions due to the multifactorial etiology of many of them, involving a number of environmental factors together with genetic predispositions. Yet despite the preventive potential, lack of attention to an integrated preventive strategy has led to the prevalence of CA remaining relatively stable in recent decades. The 2 European projects, EUROCAT and EUROPLAN, have joined efforts to provide the first science-based and comprehensive set of recommendations for the primary prevention of CA in the European Union. The resulting EUROCAT-EUROPLAN 'Recommendations on Policies to Be Considered for the Primary Prevention of Congenital Anomalies in National Plans and Strategies on Rare Diseases' were issued in 2012 and endorsed by EUCERD (European Union Committee of Experts on Rare Diseases) in 2013. The recommendations exploit interdisciplinary expertise encompassing drugs, diet, lifestyles, maternal health status, and the environment. The recommendations include evidence-based actions aimed at reducing risk factors and at increasing protective factors and behaviors at both individual and population level. Moreover, consideration is given to topics specifically related to CA (e.g. folate status, teratogens) as well as of broad public health impact (e.g. obesity, smoking) which call for specific attention to their relevance in the pre- and periconceptional period. The recommendations, reported entirely in this paper, are a comprehensive tool to implement primary prevention into national policies on rare diseases in Europe.

Teaching and cognitive outcomes in A-levels and Advanced GNVQ's: Case studies from Science and Business Studies Classrooms

The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate how a research diary methodology, designed to analyse A-level and GNVQ classrooms, can be a powerful tool for examining pedagogy and quality of learning at the level of case study. Two subject areas, science and business studies, are presented as cases. Twelve teachers and thirty-four students were studied over a four-week period in May 1997 and contrasts were drawn between lessons from three A-level physics teachers/three Advanced GNVQ science teachers and two A-level business/economics teachers/four Advanced GNVQ business teachers. Lessons were analysed within a cognitive framework which distinguishes between conceptual and procedural learning and emphasizes the importance of metacognition and epistemological beliefs. Two dimensions of lessons were identified: pedagogical activities (e.g. teacher-led explanation, teacher-led guidance on a task, question/answer sessions, group discussions, working with IT) and cognitive outcomes (e.g. structuring and memorizing facts, understanding concepts and arguments, critical thinking, problem-solving, learning core skills, identifying values). Immediately after each lesson, teachers and students (three per class) completed structured research diaries with respect to the above dimensions. Data from the diaries reveal general and unique features of the lessons. Time-ofyear effects were evident (examinations pending in May), particularly in A-level classrooms. Students in business studies classes reported a wider range of learning activities and greater variety in cognitive outcomes than did students in science classes. Science students self-rating of their ability to manage and direct their own learning was generally low. The phenomenological aspects of the classrooms were consistently linked to teachers' lesson plans and what their teaching objectives were for those particular students at that particular time of the year.

Optimisation of radiotherapy for carcinoma of the parotid gland: a comparison of conventional, three-dimensional conformal, and intensity-modulated techniques

Background and purpose: To compare external beam radiotherapy techniques for parotid gland tumours using conventional radiotherapy (RT), three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT), and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). To optimise the IMRT techniques, and to produce an IMRT class solution.Materials and methods: The planning target volume (PTV), contra-lateral parotid gland, oral cavity, brain-stem, brain and cochlea were outlined on CT planning scans of six patients with parotid gland tumours. Optimised conventional RT and 3DCRT plans were created and compared with inverse-planned IMRT dose distributions using dose-volume histograms. The aim was to reduce the radiation dose to organs at risk and improve the PTV dose distribution. A beam-direction optimisation algorithm was used to improve the dose distribution of the IMRT plans, and a class solution for parotid gland IMRT was investigated.Results: 3DCRT plans produced an equivalent PTV irradiation and reduced the dose to the cochlea, oral cavity, brain, and other normal tissues compared with conventional RT. IMRT further reduced the radiation dose to the cochlea and oral cavity compared with 3DCRT. For nine- and seven-field IMRT techniques, there was an increase in low-dose radiation to non-target tissue and the contra-lateral parotid gland. IMRT plans produced using three to five optimised intensity-modulated beam directions maintained the advantages of the more complex IMRT plans, and reduced the contra-lateral parotid gland dose to acceptable levels. Three- and four-field non-coplanar beam arrangements increased the volume of brain irradiated, and increased PTV dose inhomogeneity. A four-field class solution consisting of paired ipsilateral coplanar anterior and posterior oblique beams (15, 45, 145 and 170o from the anterior plane) was developed which maintained the benefits without the complexity of individual patient optimisation.Conclusions: For patients with parotid gland tumours, reduction in the radiation dose to critical normal tissues was demonstrated with 3DCRT compared with conventional RT. IMRT produced a further reduction in the dose to the cochlea and oral cavity. With nine and seven fields, the dose to the contra-lateral parotid gland was increased, but this was avoided by optimisation of the beam directions. The benefits of IMRT were maintained with three or four fields when the beam angles were optimised, but were also achieved using a four-field class solution. Clinical trials are required to confirm the clinical benefits of these improved dose distributions.

Comparison of teleconsultations and face-to-face consultations:preliminary results of a United Kingdom multicentre teledermatology study

The objective of this multicentre study was to undertake a systematic comparison of face-to-face consultations and teleconsultations performed using low-cost videoconferencing equipment. One hundred and twenty-six patients were enrolled by their general practitioners across three sites. Each patient underwent a teleconsultation with a distant dermatologist followed by a traditional face-to-face consultation with a dermatologist. The main outcome measures were diagnostic concordance rates, management plans and patient and doctor satisfaction. One hundred and fifty-five diagnoses were identified by the face-to-face consultations from the sample of 126 patients. Identical diagnoses were recorded from both types of consultation in 59% of cases. Teledermatology consultations missed a secondary diagnosis in 6% of cases and were unable to make a useful diagnosis in 11% of cases. Wrong diagnoses were made by the teledermatologist in 4% of cases. Dermatologists were able to make a definitive diagnosis by face-to-face consultations in significantly more cases than by teleconsultations (P = 0.001). Where both types of consultation resulted in a single diagnosis there was a high level of agreement (kappa = 0.96, lower 95% confidence limit 0.91-1.00). Overall follow-up rates from both types of consultation were almost identical. Fifty per cent of patients seen could have been managed using a single videoconferenced teleconsultation without any requirement for further specialist intervention. Patients reported high levels of satisfaction with the teleconsultations. General practitioners reported that 75% of the teleconsultations were of educational benefit. This study illustrates the potential of telemedicine to diagnose and manage dermatology cases referred from primary care. Once the problem of image quality has been addressed, further studies will be required to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a teledermatology service and the potential consequences for the provision of dermatological services in the U.K.

Mobile Phones and Contact Arrangements for Children Living in Care

This article reports the findings from the first UK study to examine the use of mobile phones by looked after children. Contact with family and friends is important, but it has sometimes to be carefully managed to avoid unintended consequences such as placement instability. The study examined the ways in which mobile phone technology impacts on contact, drawing on the experiences of children and young people in foster-care and residential care, and of policy makers, social workers, foster parents and residential care staff. No guidance was available that addressed the issue of mobile phone contact arrangements for looked after children and young people. Three years on from the start of the study, this remains the case in the area where the study was conducted, resulting in variation in the way mobile phone use for contact is managed; the issue appears only to be specifically addressed when identified as a problem. The position of mobile phone facilitated contact as a recognised form of contact requires review. The evidence suggests it should routinely form part of children’s care plans, and that residential staff and foster parents need to be adequately prepared and supported for the dynamics of mobile phone facilitated contact.

New Visions for Old Cities: The Role of Visioning in Planning

Many plans and strategies these days are underpinned by `visions'. This article examines the cultural and policy shift in planning in the UK toward more integrated and participative practice, and the potential role of visioning in this new climate. Reviewing examples of vision planning in the US, where the process has a longer lineage, it argues that these interventions suffer from a lack of evaluation of the effects of `visioning'. Yet this visioning approach has been adopted in certain cities and towns in Northern Ireland in recent years. This article assesses the impact of this approach in a detailed case study and finds the impact to have been modest.

High levels of genetic structuring as a result of population fragmentation in the tropical tree species Caesalpinia echinata Lam.

We have investigated levels of genetic diversity within and among seven remnant populations of Caesalpinia echinata Lam., an endangered species found as fragmented populations in three major areas around the coastal regions of Brazil. Using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) genetic markers, we detected levels of within-population genetic diversity ranging from 0.092 to 0.163, with the lowest values generally being found in the smallest populations. Estimates of between-population genetic differentiation were strongly correlated with geographical distance ( r = 0.884, p <0.001), which, along with a neighbour-joining phylogenetic analysis, strongly suggested high levels of genetic isolation by distance. Over half (62%) of the total genetic diversity was partitioned between populations, further highlighting the genetic distinctness of individual populations. Taken together, these results suggest that fragmentation has led to an increase in population differentiation between fragments of C. echinata. These formations will be of great value in the development of conservation plans for species exhibiting high levels of genetic differentiation due to fragmentation, such as indication of conservation unit size, which populations should be chosen as priority in conservation plans and which samples should be introduced in areas with a low number of individuals of brazilwood.

The cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention for the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease

Objectives: The Secondary Prevention of Heart disEase in geneRal practicE (SPHERE) trial has recently reported. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention in both healthcare systems on the island of Ireland. Methods: Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. A probabilistic model was developed to combine within-trial and beyond-trial impacts of treatment to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of two secondary prevention strategies: Intervention - tailored practice and patient care plans; and Control - standardized usual care. Results: The intervention strategy resulted in mean cost savings per patient of 512.77 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1086.46-91.98) and an increase in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient of 0.0051 (95 percent CI, 0.0101-0.0200), when compared with the control strategy. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 94 percent if decision makers are willing to pay €45,000 per additional QALY. Conclusions: Decision makers in both settings must determine whether the level of evidence presented is sufficient to justify the adoption of the SPHERE intervention in clinical practice. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

RYIRFAMIDE - A TURBELLARIAN FMRFAMIDE-RELATED PEPTIDE (FARP)

FMRFamide was isolated originally from neural-tissue extracts of a bivalve mollusc, since when either authentic FMRFamide or a series of structurally-related peptides have been isolated from representative arthropods, annelids and many additional molluscs. However, to date no information exists as to the definitive presence and primary structure of a FaRP in a free-living flatworm. Here, we report the isolation and primary structure of a FaRP from the free-living turbellarian, Artioposthia triangulata, a species from which NPF has been previously structurally-characterised. Unlike molluscs and insects, in which several FaRP a are expressed, only a single member of this family was detected in this turbellarian. The primary structure of this turbellarian FaRP was established as Arg-Tyr-Ile-Arg-Phe-NH2 (RYIRFamide) and the molecular mass as 752.7 Da. These data have established unequivocally that FaRPs occur in the nervous systems of the most phylogenetically-ancient invertebrates which display bilaterally-symmetrical neuronal plans and that authentic FMRFamide is probably not the original member of the family in molecular evolutionary terms.

Modelling the Performance of Irish Credit Unions, 2002 to 2010

This study undertakes a modeling based performance assessment of all Irish credit unions between 2002 and 2010, a particularly turbulent period in their history. The analysis explicitly addresses the current challenges faced by credit unions in that the modeling approach used rewards credit unions for reducing undesirable outputs (impaired loans and investments) as well as for increasing desirable outputs (loans, earning assets and members’ funds) and decreasing inputs (labour expenditure, capital expenditure and fund expenses). The main findings are: credit unions are subject to increasing returns to scale; technical regression occurred in the years after 2007; there is significant scope for an improvement in efficiency through expansion of desirable outputs and contraction of undesirable outputs and inputs; and that larger credit unions, that are better capitalised and pay a higher dividend to members are more efficient than their smaller, less capitalised, and lower dividend paying counterparts.

Brunetta’s reform swan song? An assessment of its success in local governments through the analysis of its tools

The work aims at assessing the success of Brunetta’s reform (Legislative Decree n. 150/2009), a far-reaching reform that aimed at improving both organizational and individual performance in Italian public administration through a specific planning and control process (the performance cycle) and most of all through two new tools, Performance Plan and Performance Report. The success of the reform is assessed, with particular emphasis on local governments, analyzing the diffusion and use of these new tools. The study has been conducted using a deductive-inductive methodology. Thus, after a study of managerial reforms in Italy and performance measurement literature, a possible model (PerformEL Model) local governments could follow to draw up Performance Plan and Report as effective tools for performance measurement has been designed (deductive phase). Performance Plans 2011-2013 and Performance Report 2011 downloaded from Italian big sized municipalities’ websites have been analyzed in the light of PerformEL Model, to assess the diffusion of the documents and their coherence with legal requirements and suggestions from literature (inductive phase). Data arising from the empirical analysis have been studied to evaluate the diffusion and the effectiveness of big sized municipalities’ Performance Plans and Reports as performance measurement tools and thus to assess the success of the reform (feedback phase). The study shows a scarce diffusion of the documents; they are mostly drew up because of their compulsoriness or to gain legitimization. The results testify the failure of Brunetta’s reform, at least with regard to local governments.

The effect of choice on motivation for young children on the autism spectrum during discrete trial teaching

Self-determination and decision-making are acknowledged internationally as key rights of persons with disabilities and should play an important role in the development of educational plans and procedures. Not only is the chance for individuals with developmental disabilities to select their own tasks, leisure activities or reinforcers a valuable way of enhancing rights-based education and personal dignity, but choice-making opportunities may also function as a useful clinical or educational tool if they actually improve the efficacy of programmes aimed at the acquisition of socially relevant behaviours and life skills or the reduction of challenging behaviours.

The study reported here assessed whether or not choice affected effectiveness of an educational procedure for three children on the autism spectrum. Following a preference assessment, a number of discrete teaching trials were conducted with each child and, contingent upon targeted responses, either the child or the therapist selected one of three preferred reinforcer items. Reinforcer choice did not affect intervention effectiveness for two of the children; however, performance and motivation improved for the third child. Results re-affirmed the importance of thorough preference assessments prior to intervention and showed that additional stimulus choice contingent on the target response may improve motivation and outcomes for some children.