Mis-measure of animal contests.

Contests between rivals placing similar value on the resource at stake are commonly won by the rival having greater 'resource holding potential' (RHP). Mutual assessment of RHP difference between rivals is usually expected as an economical means of resolution; weaker rivals can retreat when they detect their relative inferiority, thereby avoiding costly, futile persistence. Models of contest resolution that entail retreat decisions based on estimates of RHP difference predict that contest duration diminishes as RHP difference between rivals increases because the asymmetry is more readily detected. This prediction appears to have been fulfilled in contests of diverse taxa, generating widespread support for assessment of RHP differences in contests. But few studies have considered alternatives in which each rival simply persists in accord with its own RHP ('own RHP-dependent persistence'). In contests decided by own RHP-dependent persistence, in which costs accrue only through each rival's own actions, weaker rivals retreat first because they are inherently less persistent, and contest duration depends primarily on the weaker (losing) rival's RHP rather than RHP difference between the rivals. We show here that the analyses most commonly used to detect effects of RHP difference cannot discriminate between these alternatives. Because RHP difference between rivals tends to be correlated with RHP of the weaker rival in a pair, a negative relation between RHP difference and contest duration may be generated even when decisions of retreat are not based on estimated RHP difference. Many studies purporting to show a negative relation between RHP difference and contest duration may actually reflect an incidental association between weaker rival RHP and RHP difference. We suggest statistical and experimental approaches that may help to discriminate between effects of weaker rival RHP and true effects of RHP difference. We also discuss whether 'true' negative effects of RHP difference on contest duration always reflect retreat decisions based on estimated RHP differences. Copyright 2003 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Chironomid-based reconstructions of summer air temperature from lake deposits in Lyndon Stream, New Zealand spanning the MIS 3/2 transition

We present chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from lake sediments deposited between ca 26,600 cal yr BP and 24,500 cal yr BP from Lyndon Stream, South Island, New Zealand. Summer (February mean) temperatures averaged 1 1C cooler, with a maximum inferred cooling of 3.7 1C. These estimates corroborate macrofossil and beetle-based temperature inferences from the same site and suggest climate amelioration (an interstadial) at this time. Other records from the New Zealand region also show a large degree of variability during the late Otiran glacial sequence (34,000–18,000 cal yr BP) including a phase of warming at the MIS 2/3 transition and a maximum cooling that did not occur until the global LGM (ca 20,000 cal yr BP). The very moderate cooling identified here at the MIS 2/3 transition confirms and enhances the long-standing discrepancy in New Zealand records between pollen and other proxies. Low abundances (o20%) of canopy tree pollen in records from late MIS 3 to the end of MIS 2 cannot be explained by the minor (o5 1C) cooling inferred from this and other studies unless other environmental parameters are considered. Further work is required to address this critical issue.

Observation of stable phase jump lines in convection of a twisted nematic liquid crystal

We report observations of stable, localized, linelike structures in the spatially periodic pattern formed by nematic electroconvection, along which the phase of the pattern jumps by pi. With increasing electric voltage, these lines form a gridlike structure that goes over into a structure indistinguishable from the well-known grid pattern. We present theoretical arguments that suggest that the twisted cell geometry we are using is indirectly stabilizing the phase jump lines, and that the phase jump lines lattice is caused by an interaction of phase jump lines and a zig-zag instability of the surrounding pattern.

The effects and side-effects of statistics education: Psychology students’ (mis-)conceptions of probability

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists’ prediction who propose that education reduces misconceptions in general. They also predict that students with higher cognitive ability and higher need for cognition are less susceptible to biases. In Experiments 1 and 2 we found that the equiprobability bias increased with statistics education, and it was negatively correlated with students’ cognitive abilities. The representativeness heuristic was mostly unaffected by education, and it was also unrelated to cognitive abilities. In Experiment 3 we demonstrated through an instruction manipulation (by asking participants to think logically vs. rely on their intuitions) that the reason for these differences was that these biases originated in different cognitive processes.

Optimization of Composite Structures to Delay Mode Jump Instabilities

Numerous studies have shown that postbuckling stiffened panels may undergo abrupt changes in buckled mode
shape when loaded in uniaxial compression. This phenomenon is often referred to as a mode jump or secondary
instability. The resulting sudden release of stored energy may initiate damage in vulnerable regions within a
structure, for example, at the skin-stiffener interface of a stiffened composite panel. Current design practice is to
remove a mode jump by increasing the skin thickness of the postbuckling region. A layup optimization methodology,
based on a genetic algorithm, is presented, which delays the onset of secondary instabilities in a composite structure
while maintaining a constant weight and subject to a number of design constraints. A finite element model was
developed of a stiffened panel’s skin bay, which exhibited secondary instabilities. An automated numerical routine
extracted information directly from the finite element displacement results to detect the onset of initial buckling and
secondary instabilities. This routine was linked to the genetic algorithm to find a revised layup for the skin bay, within
appropriate design constraints, to delay the onset of secondary instabilities. The layup optimization methodology,
resulted in a panel that had a higher buckling load, prebuckling stiffness, and secondary instability load than the
baseline design.

Lay-up optimization of composite plates to delay mode-jump instabilities

Experimental and numerical studies have shown that the occurrence of abrupt secondary instabilities, or mode-jumps, in a postbuckling stiffened composite panel may initiate structural failure. This study presents an optimisation methodology, using a genetic algorithm and finite element analysis for the lay-up optimisation of postbuckling composite plates to delay the onset of mode-jump instabilities. A simple and novel approach for detecting modejumps is proposed, based on the RMS value of out-of-plane pseudo-velocities at a number of locations distributed over the postbuckling structure