Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background. From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates, across the populations. Methods. In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings. Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation. Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Extension of the Ye and Shreeve group contribution method for density estimation of ionic liquids in a wide range of temperatures and pressures

An extension of the Ye and Shreeve group contribution method [C. Ye, J.M. Shreeve, J. Phys. Chem. A 111 (2007) 1456–1461] for the estimation of densities of ionic liquids (ILs) is here proposed. The new version here presented allows the estimation of densities of ionic liquids in wide ranges of temperature and pressure using the previously proposed parameter table. Coefficients of new density correlation proposed were estimated using experimental densities of nine imidazolium-based ionic liquids. The new density correlation was tested against experimental densities available in literature for ionic liquids based on imidazolium, pyridinium, pyrrolidinium and phosphonium cations. Predicted densities are in good agreement with experimental literature data in a wide range of temperatures (273.15–393.15 K) and pressures (0.10–100 MPa). For imidazolium-based ILs, the mean percent deviation (MPD) is 0.45% and 1.49% for phosphonium-based ILs. A low MPD ranging from 0.41% to 1.57% was also observed for pyridinium and pyrrolidinium-based ILs.

A group contribution method for viscosity estimation of ionic liquids

Based on experimental viscosity data collected from the literature and using density data obtained from a predictive method previously proposed by the authors, a group contribution method is proposed to estimate viscosity of imidazolium-, pyridinium-, and pyrrolidinium-based ILs containing hexafluorophosphate (PF6), tetrafluoroborate (BF4), bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl) amide (Tf2N), chloride (Cl), acetate (CH3COO), methyl sulfate (MeSO4), ethyl sulfate (EtSO4), and trifluoromethanesulfonate (CF3SO3) anions, covering wide ranges of temperature, 293–393 K and viscosity, 4–21,000 cP. It is shown that a good agreement with literature data is obtained. For circa 500 data points of 29 ILs studied, a mean percent deviation (MPD) of 7.7% with a maximum deviation smaller than 28% was observed. 71.1% of the estimated viscosities present deviations smaller than 10% of the experimental values while only 6.4% have deviations larger than 20%. The group contribution method here developed can thus be used to evaluate the viscosity of new ionic liquids in wide ranges of temperatures at atmospheric pressure and, as data for new groups of cations and anions became available, can be extended to a larger range of ionic liquids.

Estimation of speed of sound of ionic liquids using surface tensions and densities: A volume based approach

The limited availability of experimental data and their quality have been preventing the development of predictive methods and Computer Aided Molecular Design (CAMD) of ionic liquids (ILs). Based on experimental speed of sound data collected from the literature, the inter-relationship of surface tension (s), density (?), and speed of sound (u) has been examined for imidazolium based ILs containing hexafluorophosphate (PF6), tetrafluoroborate (BF4), bis(trifluoromethanesulphonyl) amide (NTf2), methyl sulphate (MeSO4), ethyl sulphate (EtSO4), and trifluoromethanesulphonate (CF3SO3) anions, covering wide ranges of temperature, 278.15–343.15 K and speed of sound, 1129.0–1851.0 m s-1. The speed of sound was correlated with a modified Auerbach's relation, by using surface tension and density data obtained from volume based predictive methods previously proposed by the authors. It is shown that a good agreement with literature data is obtained. For 133 data points of 14 ILs studied a mean percent deviation (MPD) of 1.96% with a maximum deviation inferior to 5% was observed. The correlations developed here can thus be used to evaluate the speeds of sound of new ionic liquids.

Object tracking using SIFT features and mean shift

A scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) based mean shift algorithm is presented for object tracking in real scenarios. SIFT features are used to correspond the region of interests across frames. Meanwhile, mean shift is applied to conduct similarity search via color histograms. The probability distributions from these two measurements are evaluated in an expectation–maximization scheme so as to achieve maximum likelihood estimation of similar regions. This mutual support mechanism can lead to consistent tracking performance if one of the two measurements becomes unstable. Experimental work demonstrates that the proposed mean shift/SIFT strategy improves the tracking performance of the classical mean shift and SIFT tracking algorithms in complicated real scenarios.

Turbo channel estimation and equalisation for a superposition-based cooperative system

This study investigates the superposition-based cooperative transmission system. In this system, a key point is for the relay node to detect data transmitted from the source node. This issued was less considered in the existing literature as the channel is usually assumed to be flat fading and a priori known. In practice, however, the channel is not only a priori unknown but subject to frequency selective fading. Channel estimation is thus necessary. Of particular interest is the channel estimation at the relay node which imposes extra requirement for the system resources. The authors propose a novel turbo least-square channel estimator by exploring the superposition structure of the transmission data. The proposed channel estimator not only requires no pilot symbols but also has significantly better performance than the classic approach. The soft-in-soft-out minimum mean square error (MMSE) equaliser is also re-derived to match the superimposed data structure. Finally computer simulation results are shown to verify the proposed algorithm.

Estimation of in situ stresses using anisotropic elasticity and suction measurements

Sampling and specimen preparation produce changes in mean effective stresses and pore water pressures, even with ‘perfect sampling’. The paper takes an existing simplified three-parameter cross-anisotropic elastic model and uses it to model these changes. The required ratio of cross-anisotropic parameters J/3G* can be obtained from standard CIU triaxial tests. If measurements are also made of suctions in unloaded specimens in the laboratory, then a combination of J/3G*, the measured suction, and the effective overburden pressure permits an estimation of the horizontal effective pressure and the K 0 ‘at rest’ coefficient. This can be helpful in numerical modelling that needs to start from in situ conditions, and in planning pressure levels for reconsolidation of clay specimens in the laboratory. Tests were done on Belfast Upper Boulder Clay from a depth of 28 m. Values of horizontal in situ effective stress estimated from these measurements compare favorably with conventional estimates of the ‘at rest’ coefficient K 0 and the overconsolidation ratio. Estimates of horizontal stress in London Clay were made using published data and the results compared with actual measurements. Again reasonable agreement was obtained.

Does pre-operative estimation of oesophageal tumour metabolic length using F-18-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT images compare with surgical pathology length?

PURPOSE:
The aim of the study was to compare the pre-operative metabolic tumour length on FDG PET/CT with the resected pathological specimen in patients with oesophageal cancer.

METHODS:
All patients diagnosed with oesophageal carcinoma who had undergone staging PET/CT imaging between the period of June 2002 and May 2008 who were then suitable for curative surgery, either with or without neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, were included in this study. Metabolic tumour length was assessed using both visual analysis and a maximum standardised uptake value (SUV(max)) cutoff of 2.5.

RESULTS:
Thirty-nine patients proceeded directly to curative surgical resection, whereas 48 patients received neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, followed by curative surgery. The 95% limits of agreement in the surgical arm were more accurate when the metabolic tumour length was visually assessed with a mean difference of -0.05 cm (SD 2.16 cm) compared to a mean difference of +2.42 cm (SD 3.46 cm) when assessed with an SUV(max) cutoff of 2.5. In the neo-adjuvant group, the 95% limits of agreement were once again more accurate when assessed visually with a mean difference of -0.6 cm (SD 1.84 cm) compared to a mean difference of +1.58 cm (SD 3.1 cm) when assessed with an SUV(max) cutoff of 2.5.

CONCLUSION:
This study confirms the high accuracy of PET/CT in measuring gross target volume (GTV) length. A visual method for GTV length measurement was demonstrated to be superior and more accurate than when using an SUV(max) cutoff of 2.5. This has the potential of reducing the planning target volume with dose escalation to the tumour with a corresponding reduction in normal tissue complication probability.

Monitoring and population estimation of the European badger (Meles meles) in Northern Ireland

The estimation of animal abundance has a central role in wildlife management and research, including the role of badgers Meles meles in bovine tuberculosis transmission to cattle. This is the first study to examine temporal change in the badger population of Northern Ireland over amedium- to long-term time frame of 14-18 years by repeating a national survey first conducted during 1990-1993. A total of 212 1-km2 squares were surveyed during 2007-2008 and the number, type and activity of setts therein recorded. Badgers were widespread with 75% of squares containing at least one sett. The mean density of activemain setts,which was equivalent to badger social group density, was 0.56 (95%CI: 0.46-0.67) active main setts per km2 during 2007-2008. Social group density varied significantly among landclass groups and counties. The total number of social groups was estimated at 7,600 (95%CI: 6,200-9,000) and, not withstanding probable sources of error in estimating social group size, the total abundance of badgers was estimated to be 34,100 (95% CI: 26,200-42,000). There was no significant change in the badger population from that recorded during 1990-1993. A resource selection model provided a relative probability of sett construction at a spatial scale of 25m. Sett locations were negatively associated with elevation and positively associated with slope, aspect, soil sand content, the presence of cover, and the area of improved grassland and arable agriculture within 300 m.

Quantitative estimation of retinal nerve fiber layer height in glaucoma and the relationship with optic nerve head topography and visual field

Purpose: The authors estimated the retinal nerve fiber layer height (RNFLH) measurements in patients with glaucoma compared with those in age-matched healthy subjects as obtained by the laser scanning tomography and assessed the relationship between RNFLH measurements and optic and visual field status. Methods: Parameters of optic nerve head topography and RNFLH were evaluated in 125 eyes of 21 healthy subjects and 104 patients with glaucoma using the Heidelberg Retina Tomograph ([HRT] Heidelberg Engineering GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany) for the entire disc area and for the superior 70°(50°temporal and 20°nasal to the vertical midline) and inferior 70°sectors of the optic disc. The mean deviation of the visual field, as determined by the Humphrey program 24-2 (Humphrey Instruments, Inc., San Leonardo, CA, U.S.A) was calculated in the entire field and in the superior and inferior Bjerrum area. Result: Retinal nerve fiber layer height parameters (mean RNFLH and RNFL cross-sectional area) were decreased significantly in patients with glaucoma compared with healthy individuals. Retinal nerve fiber layer height parameters was correlated strongly with rim volume, rim area, and cup/disc area ratio. Of the various topography measures, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) parameters and cup/disc area ratio showed the strongest correlation with visual field mean deviation in patients with glaucoma. Conclusion: Retinal nerve fiber layer height measures were reduced substantially in patients with glaucoma compared with age-matched healthy subjects. Retinal nerve fiber layer height was correlated strongly with topographic optic disc parameters and visual field changes in patients with glaucoma.

Note. Speciation of arsenic in licorice confectionery products and estimation of health risks

Total-arsenic (T-As) and arsenic (As) species were determined by HPLC-HG-AAS in ten different confectionery products: nine throat pearls and an industrial licorice extract. The Spanish legislation sets a maximum total-As content in confectionery products at 0.1 mu g/g. T-As concentrations were above the permitted maximum limit (mean of 0.219 +/- 0.008 mu g/g). All As was present in the form of toxic inorganic species. The daily consumption of licorice-confections in Spain is 1.1 g and leads to a daily intake of inorganic-As of 0.23 mu g (0.2% of the tolerable daily intake of inorganic As for a teenager). These experimental results proved that even though high total-As concentrations were found in licorice throat pearls and that all the As found was present as inorganic species, no significant risks for health are expected just by considering this As source.

Contribution of water and cooked rice to an estimation of the dietary intake of inorganic arsenic in a rural village of West Bengal, India

Arsenic contamination of rice plants by arsenic-polluted irrigation groundwater could result in high arsenic concentrations in cooked rice. The main objective of the study was to estimate the total and inorganic arsenic intakes in a rural population of West Bengal, India, through both drinking water and cooked rice. Simulated cooking of rice with different levels of arsenic species in the cooking water was carried out. The presence of arsenic in the cooking water was provided by four arsenic species (arsenite, arsenate, methylarsonate or dimethylarsinate) and at three total arsenic concentrations (50, 250 or 500 mu g l(-1)). The results show that the arsenic concentration in cooked rice is always higher than that in raw rice and range from 227 to 1642 mu g kg(-1). The cooking process did not change the arsenic speciation in rice. Cooked rice contributed a mean of 41% to the daily intake of inorganic arsenic. The daily inorganic arsenic intakes for water plus rice were 229, 1024 and 2000 mu g day(-1) for initial arsenic concentrations in the cooking water of 50, 250 and 500 g arsenic l(-1), respectively, compared with the tolerable daily intake which is 150 mu g day(-1).

Variance-Constrained Capacity of the Molecular Timing Channel with Synchronization Error

Molecular communication is set to play an important role in the design of complex biological and chemical systems. An important class of molecular communication systems is based on the timing channel, where information is encoded in the delay of the transmitted molecule - a synchronous approach. At present, a widely used modeling assumption is the perfect synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. Unfortunately, this assumption is unlikely to hold in most practical molecular systems. To remedy this, we introduce a clock into the model - leading to the molecular timing channel with synchronization error. To quantify the behavior of this new system, we derive upper and lower bounds on the variance-constrained capacity, which we view as the step between the mean-delay and the peak-delay constrained capacity. By numerically evaluating our bounds, we obtain a key practical insight: the drift velocity of the clock links does not need to be significantly larger than the drift velocity of the information link, in order to achieve the variance-constrained capacity with perfect synchronization.

Cavity-aided quantum parameter estimation in a bosonic double-well Josephson junction

We describe an apparatus designed to make non-demolition measurements on a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped in a double-well optical cavity. This apparatus contains, as well as the bosonic gas and the trap, an optical cavity. We show how the interaction between the light and the atoms, under appropriate conditions, can allow for a weakly disturbing yet highly precise measurement of the population imbalance between the two wells and its variance. We show that the setting is well suited for the implementation of quantum-limited estimation strategies for the inference of the key parameters defining the evolution of the atomic system and based on measurements performed on the cavity field. This would enable {\it de facto} Hamiltonian diagnosis via a highly controllable quantum probe.