Optimising the use of virtual and conventional simulation: a clinical and economic analysis

Background and purpose: Currently, optimal use of virtual simulation for all treatment sites is not entirely clear. This study presents data to identify specific patient groups for whom conventional simulation may be completely eliminated and replaced by virtual simulation. Sampling and method: Two hundred and sixty patients were recruited from four treatment sites (head and neck, breast, pelvis, and thorax). Patients were randomly assigned to be treated using the usual treatment process involving conventional simulation, or a treatment process differing only in the replacement of conventional plan verification with virtual verification. Data were collected on set-up accuracy at verification, and the number of unsatisfactory verifications requiring a return to the conventional simulator. A micro-economic costing analysis was also undertaken, whereby data for each treatment process episode were also collected: number and grade of staff present, and the time for each treatment episode. Results: The study shows no statistically significant difference in the number of returns to the conventional simulator for each site and study arm. Image registration data show similar quality of verification for each study arm. The micro-costing data show no statistical difference between the virtual and conventional simulation processes. Conclusions: At our institution, virtual simulation including virtual verification for the sites investigated presents no disadvantage compared to conventional simulation.

D3.1 Benefits Analysis of the Initial Operational Cruiser-Feeder Concept

The REsearch on a CRuiser Enabled Air Transport Environment (RECREATE) project is considers the introduction and airworthiness of cruiser-feeder operations for civil aircraft. Cruiser-feeder operations are investigated as a promising pioneering idea for the air transport of the future. The soundness of the concept of cruiser-feeder operations for civil aircraft can be understood, taking air-to-air refueling operations as an example. For this example, a comprehensive estimate of the benefits can be made, which shows a fuel burn reduction potential and a CO2 emission reduction of 31% for a typical 6000 nautical miles flight with a payload of 250 passengers. This reduction potential is known to be large by any standard. The top level objective of the RECREATE project is to demonstrate on a preliminary design level that cruiser-feeder operations (as a concept to reduce fuel burn and CO2 emission levels) can be shown to comply with the airworthiness requirements for civil aircraft. The underlying Scientific and Technological (S&T) objectives are to determine and study airworthy operational concepts for cruiser-feeder operations, and to derive and quantify benefits in terms of CO2 emission reduction but also other benefits.

Work Package (WP) 3 has the objective to substantiate the assumed benefits of the cruiser/feeder operations through refined analysis and simulation. In this report, initial benefits evaluation of the initial RECREATE cruiser/feeder concepts is presented. The benefits analysis is conducted in delta mode, i.e. comparison is made with a baseline system. Since comparing different aircraft and air transport systems is never a trivial task, appropriate measures and metrics are defined and selected first. Non-dimensional parameters are defined and values for the baseline system derived.

The impact of cruiser/feeder operations such as air-to-air refueling are studied with respect to fuel-burn (or carbon-dioxide), noise and congestion. For this purpose, traffic simulations have been conducted.
Cruiser/feeder operations will have an impact on dispatch reliability as well. An initial assessment of the effect on dispatch reliability has been made and is reported.

Finally, a considerable effort has been made to create the infrastructure for economic delta analysis of the cruiser/feeder concept of operation. First results of the cost analysis have been obtained.

Research agendas for the sustainable management of tropical peatland in Malaysia

There is a need for coordinated research for the sustainable management of tropical peatland. Malaysia has 6% of global tropical peat by area and peatlands there are subject to land use change at an unprecedented rate. This paper describes a stakeholder engagement exercise that identified 95 priority research questions for peatland in Malaysia, organized into nine themes. Analysis revealed the need for fundamental scientific research, with strong representation across the themes of environmental change, ecosystem services, and conversion, disturbance and degradation. Considerable uncertainty remains about Malaysia's baseline conditions for peatland, including questions over total remaining area of peatland, water table depths, soil characteristics, hydrological function, biogeochemical processes and ecology. More applied and multidisciplinary studies involving researchers from the social sciences are required. The future sustainability of Malaysian peatland relies on coordinating research agendas via a ‘knowledge hub’ of researchers, strengthening the role of peatlands in land-use planning and development processes, stricter policy enforcement, and bridging the divide between national and provincial governance. Integration of the economic value of peatlands into existing planning regimes is also a stakeholder priority. Finally, current research needs to be better communicated for the benefit of the research community, for improved societal understanding and to inform policy processes.

Kernelized structural classification for 3D dogs body parts detection

Despite pattern recognition methods for human behavioral analysis has flourished in the last decade, animal behavioral analysis has been almost neglected. Those few approaches are mostly focused on preserving livestock economic value while attention on the welfare of companion animals, like dogs, is now emerging as a social need. In this work, following the analogy with human behavior recognition, we propose a system for recognizing body parts of dogs kept in pens. We decide to adopt both 2D and 3D features in order to obtain a rich description of the dog model. Images are acquired using the Microsoft Kinect to capture the depth map images of the dog. Upon depth maps a Structural Support Vector Machine (SSVM) is employed to identify the body parts using both 3D features and 2D images. The proposal relies on a kernelized discriminative structural classificator specifically tailored for dogs independently from the size and breed. The classification is performed in an online fashion using the LaRank optimization technique to obtaining real time performances. Promising results have emerged during the experimental evaluation carried out at a dog shelter, managed by IZSAM, in Teramo, Italy.

High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus

The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years, however, data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass, coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution, which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes, we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations, as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000-566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat, a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change.

"This mere speck on the surface of the waters": Rockall aka Waveland

Rockall is a tiny granite knoll isolated in the stormy waters of the North Atlantic. It is not habitable and has of itself no economic value. However, given its location it has been a prize insofar as at one time it was thought its possession could bring control of an exclusive economic zone. Iceland, Ireland and Denmark laid claim in addition to the UK, which had annexed Rockall in 1955, the last territory to be taken into the British Empire. In 1972 Rockall was declared to be part of Scotland. However the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (1982) now precludes rocks incapable of supporting life to be awarded economic zones. Interest in Rockall then reverted to symbolism especially in its occupation by Greenpeace in 1997 when the global state of Waveland was declared from Rockall’s summit, with Rockall itself as the capital. Greenpeace stayed on Rockall longer than anybody else and a claim has been established to it thereby, but Waveland itself collapsed with the failure of the company that serviced its online presence.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

Genetic structure of the lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus across the North Atlantic

Lumpfish, or lumpsucker, Cyclopterus lumpus (Linnaeus, 1758) is widely distributed in the North Atlantic Ocean. It has a considerable economic value and substantial fisheries occur in several North Atlantic regions owing to the use of its fully ripe internal egg masses in the ovaries as an alternative to sturgeon caviar. Despite being intensively fished in several locations, biological knowledge is limited and no genetic structure information is available. In this study, the stock structure of C. lumpus was investigated across the North Atlantic using ten microsatellite loci. Out of ten loci, two exhibited higher level of differentiation but their inclusion/ exclusion from the analyses did not drastically change the observed genetic pattern. A total of three distinct genetic groups were detected: Maine-Canada-Greenland, Iceland-Norway and Baltic Sea. These results, discussed in terms of origin of differentiation, gene flow, and selection, showed that gene flow was rather limited among the detected groups, and also between Greenland and Maine-Canada.

Optimal generation scheduling of interconnected wind-coal intensive power systems

Large scale wind power generation complicated with restrictions on the tie line plans may lead to significant wind power curtailment and deep cycling of coal units during the valley load periods. This study proposes a dispatch strategy for interconnected wind-coal intensive power systems (WCISs). Wind power curtailment and cycling of coal units are included in the economic dispatch analysis of regional systems. Based on the day-ahead dispatch results, a tie line power plan adjustment strategy is implemented in the event of wind power curtailment or deep cycling occurring in the economic dispatch model, with the objective of reducing such effects. The dispatch strategy is designed based on the distinctive operation characteristics of interconnected WCISs, and dispatch results for regional systems in China show that the proposed strategy is feasible and can improve the overall system operation performance.

What is the Point of Copyright History?:Reflections on Copyright at Common law in 1774 by H. Tomás Gómez-Arostegui

Copyright history has long been a subject of intense and contested enquiry. Historical narratives about the early development of copyright were first prominently mobilised in eighteenth century British legal discourse, during the so-called Battle of the Booksellers between Scottish and London publishers. The two landmark copyright decisions of that time – Millar v. Taylor (1769) and Donaldson v. Becket (1774) – continue to provoke debate today. The orthodox reading of Millar and Donaldson presents copyright as a natural proprietary right at common law inherent in authors. Revisionist accounts dispute that traditional analysis. These conflicting perspectives have, once again, become the subject of critical scrutiny with the publication of Copyright at Common Law in 1774 by Prof Tomas Gomez-Arostegui in 2014, in the Connecticut Law Review ((2014) 47 Conn. L. Rev. 1) and as a CREATe Working Paper (No. 2014/16, 3 November 2014).

Taking Prof Gomez-Arostegui’s extraordinary work in this area as a point of departure, Dr Elena Cooper and Professor Ronan Deazley (then both academics at CREATe) organised an event, held at the University of Glasgow on 26th and 27th March 2015, to consider the interplay between copyright history and contemporary copyright policy. Is Donaldson still relevant, and, if so, why? What justificatory goals are served by historical investigation, and what might be learned from the history of the history of copyright? Does the study of copyright history still have any currency within an evidence-based policy context that is increasingly preoccupied with economic impact analysis?

This paper provides a lasting record of these discussions, including an editorial introduction, written comments by each of the panelists and Prof. Gomez-Arostegui and an edited transcript of the Symposium debate.

Avoiding Overfitting in Inverse Modeling of Chloride Migration in Concrete

Inverse analysis for reactive transport of chlorides through concrete in the presence of electric field is presented. The model is solved using MATLAB’s built-in solvers “pdepe.m” and “ode15s.m”. The results from the model are compared with experimental measurements from accelerated migration test and a function representing the lack of fit is formed. This function is optimised with respect to varying amount of key parameters defining the model. Levenberg-Marquardt trust-region optimisation approach is employed. The paper presents a method by which the degree of inter-dependency between parameters and sensitivity (significance) of each parameter towards model predictions can be studied on models with or without clearly defined governing equations. Eigen value analysis of the Hessian matrix was employed to investigate and avoid over-parametrisation in inverse analysis. We investigated simultaneous fitting of parameters for diffusivity, chloride binding as defined by Freundlich isotherm (thermodynamic) and binding rate (kinetic parameter). Fitting of more than 2 parameters, simultaneously, demonstrates a high degree of parameter inter-dependency. This finding is significant as mathematical models for representing chloride transport rely on several parameters for each mode of transport (i.e., diffusivity, binding, etc.), which combined may lead to unreliable simultaneous estimation of parameters.