A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.

Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

On Osgood theorem in Banach spaces

Let $X$ be a real Banach space, $\omega:[0,+\infty)\to\R$ be an increasing continuous function such that $\omega(0)=0$ and $\omega(t+s)\leq\omega(t)+\omega(s)$ for all $t,s\in[0,+\infty)$. By the Osgood theorem, if $\int_{0}^1\frac{dt}{\omega(t)}=\infty$, then for any $(t_0,x_0)\in R\times X$ and any continuous map $f: R\times X\to X$ and such that $\|f(t,x)-f(t,y)\|\leq\omega(\|x-y\|)$ for all $t\in R$, $x,y\in X$, the Cauchy problem $\dot x(t)=f(t,x(t))$, $(t_0)=x_0$ has a unique solution in a neighborhood of $t_0$ . We prove that if $X$ has a complemented subspace with an unconditional Schauder basis and $\int_{0}^1\frac{dt}{\omega(t)}

Counterexample to Peano's theorem in infinite-dimensional F '-spaces

Let $E$ be a nonnormable Frechet space, and let $E'$ be the space of all continuous linear functionals on $E$ in the strong topology. A continuous mapping $f : E' \to E'$ such that for any $t_0\in R$ and $x_0\in E'$, the Cauchy problem $\dot x= f(x)$, x(t_0) = x_0$ has no solutions is constructed.