Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ���negative tail��� of the joint distribution.

Novel linkage to chromosome 20p using latent classes of psychotic illness in 270 Irish high-density families

Background: Several lines of evidence suggest that the clinical heterogeneity of schizophrenia is due to genetic heterogeneity. Genetic heterogeneity may decrease the signal-to-noise ratio in linkage and association studies. Therefore, linkage studies of clinically homogeneous classes of psychotic illness may result in greater power to detect at least some loci.

Down with MNE-centric theories! Market entry and expansion as the bundling of MNE and local assets

Both Anderson and Gatignon and the Uppsala internationalization model see the initial mode of foreign market entry and subsequent modes of operation as unilaterally determined by multinational enterprises (MNEs) arbitraging control and risk and increasing their commitment as they gain experience in the target market. OLI and internalization models do recognize that foreign market entry requires the bundling of MNE and complementary local assets, which they call location or country-specific advantages, but implicitly assume that those assets are freely accessible to MNEs. In contrast to both of these MNE-centric views, I explicitly consider the transactional characteristics of complementary local assets and model foreign market entry as the optimal assignment of equity between their owners and MNEs. By looking at the relative efficiency of the different markets in which MNE and complementary local assets are traded, and at how these two categories of assets match, I am able to predict whether equity will be held by MNEs or by local firms, or shared between them, and whether MNEs will enter through greenfields, brownfields, or acquisitions. The bundling model I propose has interesting implications for the evolution of the MNE footprint in host countries, and for the reasons behind the emergence of Dragon MNEs.

Who Financed the Expansion of the Equity Market? Shareholder Clienteles in Victorian Britain

Who financed the great expansion of the Victorian equity market, and what attracted them to invest? Using data on 453 firm-years and over 172,000 shareholders, we find that the largest providers of capital were rentiers, men with no formal occupation who relied on investment income. We also see a substantial growth in women investors as time progressed. In terms of clientele effects, we find that rentiers invested in large firms, whilst businessmen were the venture capitalists of young, regional enterprises. Women and the middle classes preferred safe investments, whilst financiers and institutional investors were speculators in foreign companies. Our results may help to explain the growth of new types of assets catering for particular clienteles, and the development of managerial policies on dividends and share issues.��

Dermatoxin and phylloxin from the waxy monkey frog, Phyllomedusa sauvagei: cloning of precursor cDNAs and structural characterization from lyophilized skin secretion

Amphibian skin is a morphologically, biochemically and physiologically complex organ that performs the wide range of functions necessary for amphibian survival. Here we describe the primary structures of representatives of two novel classes of amphibian skin antimicrobials, dermatoxin and phylloxin, from the skin secretion of Phyllomedusa sauvagei, deduced from their respective precursor encoding cDNAs cloned from a lyophilized skin secretion library. A degenerate primer, designed to a highly conserved domain in the 5'-untranslated region of analogous peptide precursor cDNAs from Phyllomedusa bicolor, was employed in a 3'-RACE reaction. Peptides with molecular masses coincident with precursor-deduced mature toxin peptides were identified in LC/MS fractions of skin secretion and primary structures were confirmed by MS/MS fragmentation. This integrated experimental approach can thus rapidly expedite the primary structural characterization of amphibian skin peptides in a manner that circumvents specimen sacrifice whilst preserving robustness of scientific data.

Obesity in People with Learning Disabilities: the impact of nurse led health screenings and health promotion activities

Background. Obesity appears to be more common among people with intellectual disabilities, with few studies focusing on achieving weight reduction. Aim. Firstly, to follow up people identified as overweight and obese following special health screening clinics and to determine the actions taken. Secondly, to evaluate the impact of health promotion classes on participants' weight loss. Methods. A clinic led by two learning disbaility nurses was held for all people aged 10 years and over (n=464) who attended special services within the area of one Health and Social Services Trust in Northern Ireland. In a second study, the nurses organised health promotion classes for 20 people over a 6 - 8 week period. Findings. The health screen identified 64% of adults and 26% of 10 - 19 year olds as being overweight or obese. Moreover, those aged 40 - 49 years who were obese had significantly higher levels of blood pressure. However, information obtained from a follow up questionnaire sent after 3 months suggested that of the 122 people identified for wiehgt reduciton, action had been taken for only 34% of them and only three were reported to have lost weight. The health promotion classes, however, led to a significant reduction in weight and body mass index scores. Conclusion. Health screening per se has limited impact on reducing obesity levels in this client group. Rather, health personnel such as general practitioners, nurses and health promotion staff need to work in partnership with service staff, carers and people with intellectual disabiltieis to create more active lifestyles.

Bio-folio: applying portfolio theory to biodiversity

Genes, species and ecosystems are often considered to be assets. The need to ensure a sufficient diversity of this asset is being increasingly recognised today. Asset managers in banks and insurance companies face a similar challenge. They are asked to manage the assets of their investors by constructing efficient portfolios. They deliberately make use of a phenomenon observed in the formation of portfolios: returns are additive, while risks diversify. This phenomenon and its implications are at the heart of portfolio theory. Portfolio theory, like few other economic theories, has dramatically transformed the practical work of banks and insurance companies. Before portfolio theory was developed about 50 years ago, asset managers were confronted with a situation similar to the situation the research on biodiversity faces today. While the need for diversification was generally accepted, a concept that linked risk and return on a portfolio level and showed the value of diversification was missing. Portfolio theory has closed this gap. This article first explains the fundamentals of portfolio theory and transfers it to biodiversity. A large part of this article is then dedicated to some of the implications portfolio theory has for the valuation and management of biodiversity. The last section introduces three development openings for further research.

Modelling the impact of antibiotic use and infection control practices on the incidence of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a time-series analysis

Objectives: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major nosocomial pathogen worldwide. A wide range of factors have been suggested to influence the spread of MRSA. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of antimicrobial drug use and infection control practices on nosocomial MRSA incidence in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland.<br/><br/>Methods: The present research involved the retrospective collection of monthly data on the usage of antibiotics and on infection control practices within the hospital over a 5 year period (January 2000���December 2004). A multivariate ARIMA (time-series analysis) model was built to relate MRSA incidence with antibiotic use and infection control practices.<br/><br/>Results: Analysis of the 5 year data set showed that temporal variations in MRSA incidence followed temporal variations in the use of fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, macrolides and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (coefficients = 0.005, 0.03, 0.002 and 0.003, respectively, with various time lags). Temporal relationships were also observed between MRSA incidence and infection control practices, i.e. the number of patients actively screened for MRSA (coefficient = -0.007), the use of alcohol-impregnated wipes (coefficient = -0.0003) and the bulk orders of alcohol-based handrub (coefficients = -0.04 and -0.08), with increased infection control activity being associated with decreased MRSA incidence, and between MRSA incidence and the number of new patients admitted with MRSA (coefficient = 0.22). The model explained 78.4% of the variance in the monthly incidence of MRSA.<br/><br/>Conclusions: The results of this study confirm the value of infection control policies as well as suggest the usefulness of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control MRSA.

���Hegemony Protected by the Armour of Coercion���: Dashiell Hammett���s Red Harvest and the State

This article argues that Dashiell Hammett's 1929 novel Red Harvest is best understood in the context of the consolidation and expansion of the US state following the First World War and the Russian Revolution. It also argues that Hammett's novel constitutes a highly significant articulation of theoretical debates about the nature of political authority and state power in the modern era and speaks about the transition of one state formation to another. Insofar as Red Harvest explores the way in which the state's coercive and ethical character are bound up together, this article argues that Hammett's novel draws upon an understanding of political authority and state power primarily derived from Gramsci, via Marx. Gramsci insists that control cannot be maintained through force alone (and his conception of hegemony, in turn, suggests a power bloc that can become fragmented and disunited in a war of position). In the same way, Red Harvest traces the transformation of the ���economic-corporate��� state into the expanded or ���ethical��� State but crucially any ethical dimension, as Gramsci notes, is always beholden to the needs of the capitalist economy. As such, the apparently arbitrary bloodshed in the novel is conceived as a relatively minor realignment in the ranks of the capitalist classes ��� certainly less serious than the miners' strike that prefigures the novel. What makes this realignment significant is that it calls attention to the state both as repressive and as a site of conflict and compromise. Here, the work performed by the Continental Op and by the crime novel in general ��� simultaneously buttressing and, to some extent, contesting the power of the state ��� needs to be understood as part of the process by which the state is consistently enacting hegemony (albeit protected by the armour of coercion). The article concludes by pointing out that while Gramsci is perhaps too willing to dwell upon the state's expanded reach, Red Harvest is more interested in examining possible ���cracks and fissures��� in the state formation, even if the critique it ultimately offers goes nowhere and yields nothing.

The redox-Bohr group associated with iron-sulfur cluster N2 of complex I

Proton pumping respiratory complex I (NADH: ubiquinone oxidoreductase) is a major component of the oxidative phosphorylation system in mitochondria and many bacteria. In mammalian cells it provides 40% of the proton motive force needed to make ATP. Defects in this giant and most complicated membrane-bound enzyme cause numerous human disorders. Yet the mechanism of complex I is still elusive. A group exhibiting redox-linked protonation that is associated with iron-sulfur cluster N2 of complex I has been proposed to act as a central component of the proton pumping machinery. Here we show that a histidine in the 49-kDa subunit that resides near iron-sulfur cluster N2 confers this redox-Bohr effect. Mutating this residue to methionine in complex I from Yarrowia lipolytica resulted in a marked shift of the redox midpoint potential of iron-sulfur cluster N2 to the negative and abolished the redox-Bohr effect. However, the mutation did not significantly affect the catalytic activity of complex I and protons were pumped with an unchanged stoichiometry of 4 H+/2e(-). This finding has significant implications on the discussion about possible proton pumping mechanism for complex I.

Quasiexperimental Study of the Effects of Antibiotic Use, Gastric Acid-Suppressive Agents, and Infection Control Practices on the Incidence of <i>Clostridium difficile</i>-Associated Diarrhea in Hospitalized Patients

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of antimicrobial drug use, gastric acid-suppressive agent use, and infection control practices on the incidence of Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland. The study was retrospective and ecological in design. A multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (time-series analysis) model was built to relate CDAD incidence with antibiotic use, gastric acid-suppressive agent use, and infection control practices within the hospital over a 5-year period (February 2002 to March 2007). The findings of this study showed that temporal variation in CDAD incidence followed temporal variations in expanded-spectrum cephalosporin use (average delay = 2 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.01/100 bed-days), broad-spectrum cephalosporin use (average delay = 2 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.02/100 bed-days), fluoroquinolone use (average delay = 3 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.004/100 bed-days), amoxicillin-clavulanic acid use (average delay = 1 month; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.002/100 bed-days), and macrolide use (average delay = 5 months; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.002/100 bed-days). Temporal relationships were also observed between CDAD incidence and use of histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RAs; average delay = 1 month; variation of CDAD incidence = 0.001/100 bed-days). The model explained 78% of the variance in the monthly incidence of CDAD. The findings of this study highlight a temporal relationship between certain classes of antibiotics, H2RAs, and CDAD incidence. The results of this research can help hospitals to set priorities for restricting the use of specific antibiotic classes, based on the size-effect of each class and the delay necessary to observe an effect.

Confined site construction: An empirical analysis of factors impacting health and safety management

Purpose ��� The purpose of this paper is to identify, clarify and tabulate the various managerial issues encountered, to aid in the management of the complex health and safety concerns which occur within a confined construction site environment.<br/><br/>Design/methodology/approach ��� This is achieved through conducting extensive qualitative and qualitative research in the form of case studies, interviews and questionnaire survey.<br/><br/>Findings ��� The leading managerial issues in the management of health and safety on a confined construction site are found to be: ���Difficulty to move materials around site safely���; ���Lack of adequate room for the effective handling of materials���; ���Difficulty in ensuring site is tidy and all plant and materials are stored safely���; ���Close proximity of individuals to operation of large plant and machinery���; and joint fifth ���Difficulty in ensuring proper arrangement and collection of waste materials on-site��� along with ���Difficulty in controlling hazardous materials and equipment on site���.<br/><br/>Practical implications ��� The resulting implication for practice of these results can be summarised by identifying that with sustained development of urban centres on a global scale, coupled with the increasing complexity of architectural designs, the majority of on-site project management professionals are faced with the onerous task of completing often intricate designs within a limited spatial environment, under strict health and safety parameters.<br/><br/>Originality/value ��� The subsequent value of the findings are such that just as on-site management professionals successfully identify the various managerial issues highlighted, the successful management of health and safety on a confined construction site is attainable.

���A Labour Leader in a Frothy Scoundrel���: Farce and Social Justice in the Popular Dramaturgy of George Shiels

In the financially precarious period which followed the partition of Ireland (1922) the Northern Irish playwright George Shiels kept The Abbey Theatre, Dublin, open for business with a series of ���box-office��� successes. Literary Dublin was not so appreciative of his work as the Abbey audiences dubbing his popular dramaturgy mere ���kitchen comedy���. However, recent analysts of Irish theatre are beginning to recognise that Shiels used popular theatre methods to illuminate and interrogate instances of social injustice both north and south of the Irish border. In doing so, such commentators have set up a hierarchy between the playwright���s early ���inferior��� comedies and his later ���superior��� works of Irish Realism. This article rejects this binary by suggesting that in this early work Shiels���s intent is equally socially critical and that in the plays Paul Twyning, Professor Tim and The Retrievers he is actively engaging with the farcical tradition in order to expose the marginalisation of the landless classes in Ireland in the post-colonial jurisdictions.

Spin-orbit effects on photoionization-produced alignment of the Ar+ 3p(4)(P-3)4p levels

<p>We have determined photoionization spectra of Ar with excitation of the 3p(4)(P-3)4p states emphasizing the effects of two different classes of Ar+ spin-orbit interactions. The spin-orbit splitting of each Ar+ state adequately describes the resonant excitation of the quartet states of Ar+, and gives Ar photoionization cross sections with excitation of the 3p4(3P)4p P-2(3/2)o and P-4(5/2)o levels of Ar+ in sufficiently good agreement with experiment to identify the observed resonances and to estimate the excitation strengths. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of spin-orbit induced mixing of different Ar+ LS-coupled states for observables such as the alignment of the 3p(4)(P-3)4p P-4(5/2)o level and the excitation of Rydberg series converging to the 3p(4)(P-3)4p S-2(o) and S-4(o) thresholds.</p>