Combining global climate and regional landscape models to improve prediction of invasion risk

Aim
It is widely acknowledged that species distributions result from a variety of biotic and abiotic factors operating at different spatial scales. Here, we aimed to (1) determine the extent to which global climate niche models (CNMs) can be improved by the addition of fine-scale regional data; (2) examine climatic and environmental factors influencing the range of 15 invasive aquatic plant species; and (3) provide a case study for the use of such models in invasion management on an island.

Location
Global, with a case study of species invasions in Ireland.

Methods
Climate niche models of global extent (including climate only) and regional environmental niche models (with additional factors such as human influence, land use and soil characteristics) were generated using maxent for 15 invasive aquatic plants. The performance of these models within the invaded range of the study species in Ireland was assessed, and potential hotspots of invasion suitability were determined. Models were projected forward up to 2080 based on two climate scenarios.

Results
While climate variables are important in defining the global range of species, factors related to land use and nutrient level were of greater importance in regional projections. Global climatic models were significantly improved at the island scale by the addition of fine-scale environmental variables (area under the curve values increased by 0.18 and true skill statistic values by 0.36), and projected ranges decreased from an average of 86% to 36% of the island.

Main conclusions
Refining CNMs with regional data on land use, human influence and landscape may have a substantial impact on predictive capacity, providing greater value for prioritization of conservation management at subregional or local scales.

Chloroplast microsatellites: new tools for studies in plant ecology and systematics

The nonrecombinant, uniparentally inherited nature of organelle genomes
makes them useful tools for evolutionary studies. However, in plants, detecting
useful polymorphism at the population level is often difficult because of the
low level of substitutions in the chloroplast genome, and because of the slow
substitution rates and intramolecular recombination of mtDNA. Chloroplast
microsatellites represent potentially useful markers to circumvent this problem
and, to date, studies have demonstrated high levels of intraspecific variability.
Here,we discuss the use of these markers in ecological and evolutionary
studies of plants, as well as highlighting some of the potential problems
associated with such use.

Modelling and Prediction of NOx Emission in a Coal-Fired Power Generation Plant

In this paper NOx emissions modelling for real-time operation and control of a 200 MWe coal-fired power generation plant is studied. Three model types are compared. For the first model the fundamentals governing the NOx formation mechanisms and a system identification technique are used to develop a grey-box model. Then a linear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (ARX) model and a non-linear ARX model (NARX) are built. Operation plant data is used for modelling and validation. Model cross-validation tests show that the developed grey-box model is able to consistently produce better overall long-term prediction performance than the other two models.

A species invasion mediated through habitat structure, intraguild predation and parasitism.

With field, laboratory, and modeling approaches, we examined the interplay among habitat structure, intraguild predation (IGP), and parasitism in an ongoing species invasion. Native Gammarus duebeni celticus (Crustacea: Amphipoda) are often, but not always, replaced by the invader Gammarus pulex through differential IGP. The muscle-wasting microsporidian parasite Pleistophora mulleri infects the native but not the invader. We found a highly variable prevalence of P. mulleri in uninvaded rivers, with 0–91% of hosts parasitized per sample. In addition, unparasitized natives dominated fast-flowing riffle patches of river, whereas parasitized individuals dominated slower- flowing, pooled patches. We examined the survivorship of invader and native in single and mixed-species microcosms with high, intermediate, and zero parasite prevalence. G. pulex survivorship was high in all treatments, whereas G. duebeni subsp. celticus survivorship was significantly lower in the presence of the invader. Further, parasitized G. duebeni subsp. celticus experienced near-total elimination. Models of the species replacement process implied that parasite-enhanced IGP would make invasion by G. pulex more likely, regardless of habitat and parasite spatial structure. However, where heterogeneity in parasite prevalence creates a landscape of patches with different susceptibilities to invasion, G. pulex may succeed in cases where invasion would not be possible if patches were equivalent. The different responses of parasitized and unparasitized G. duebeni subsp. celticus to environmental heterogeneity potentially link landscape patterns to the success or failure of the invasion process.

Development of a modified flyash as a permeable reactive barrier media for a former manufactured gas plant site Northern Ireland

A sequential biological permeable reactive barrier (PRB) was determined to be the best option for remediating groundwater that has become contaminated with a wide range of organic contaminants (i.e., benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene and polyaromatic hydrocarbons), heavy metals (i.e., lead and arsenic), and cyanide at a former manufactured gas plant after 150 years of operation in Portadown, Northern Ireland. The objective of this study was to develop a modified flyash that could be used in the initial cell within a sequential biological PRB to filter complex contaminated groundwater containing ammonium. Flyash modified with lime (CaOH) and alum was subjected to a series of batch tests which investigated the modified cation exchange capacity (CEC) and rate of removal of anions and cations from the solution. These tests showed that a high flyash composition medium (80%) could remove 8.65 mol of ammonium contaminant for every kilogram of medium. The modified CEC procedure ruled out the possibility of cation exchange as the major removal mechanism. The medium could also adsorb anions as well as cations (i.e., Pb and Cr), but not with the same capacity. The initial mechanism for Pb and Cr removal is probably precipitation. This is followed by sorption, which is possibly the only mechanism for the removal of dichromate anions. Scanning electron microscopic analysis revealed very small (