Novel Panel Cointegration Tests Emending for Cross-Section Dependence with N Fixed

In this paper, we propose new cointegration tests for single equations and panels. Inboth cases, the asymptotic distributions of the tests, which are derived with N fixed andT → ∞, are shown to be standard normals. The effects of serial correlation and crosssectionaldependence are mopped out via long-run variances. An effective bias correctionis derived which is shown to work well in finite samples; particularly when N is smallerthan T. Our panel tests are robust to possible cointegration across units.

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY IN HETEROGENEOUS PANEL DATA IN THE CASE OF MODEL MISSPECIFICATION

This paper investigates the performance of the tests proposed by Hadri and by Hadri and Larsson for testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data under model misspecification. The panel tests are based on the well known KPSS test (cf. Kwiatkowski et al.) which considers two models: stationarity around a deterministic level and stationarity around a deterministic trend. There is no study, as far as we know, on the statistical properties of the test when the wrong model is used. We also consider the case of the simultaneous presence of the two types of models in a panel. We employ two asymptotics: joint asymptotic, T, N -> infinity simultaneously, and T fixed and N allowed to grow indefinitely. We use Monte Carlo experiments to investigate the effects of misspecification in sample sizes usually used in practice. The results indicate that the assumption that T is fixed rather than asymptotic leads to tests that have less size distortions, particularly for relatively small T with large N panels (micro-panels) than the tests derived under the joint asymptotics. We also find that choosing a deterministic trend when a deterministic level is true does not significantly affect the properties of the test. But, choosing a deterministic level when a deterministic trend is true leads to extreme over-rejections. Therefore, when unsure about which model has generated the data, it is suggested to use the model with a trend. We also propose a new statistic for testing for stationarity in mixed panel data where the mixture is known. The performance of this new test is very good for both cases of T asymptotic and T fixed. The statistic for T asymptotic is slightly undersized when T is very small (

Testing the Prebish-Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break

In this paper, we test the Prebish-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which states that real commodity prices decline in the long run, using two recent powerful panel data stationarity tests accounting for cross-sectional dependence and a structural break. We find that the hypothesis cannot be rejected for most commodities other than oil.

Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a first attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long -term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of javascript:void(0);a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability.

BRAF mutation testing algorithm for vemurafenib treatment in melanoma: recommendations from an expert panel.

The incidence of melanoma has increased rapidly over the past 30 years, and the disease is now the sixth most common cancer among men and women in the U.K. Many patients are diagnosed with or develop metastatic disease, and survival is substantially reduced in these patients. Mutations in the BRAF gene have been identified as key drivers of melanoma cells and are found in around 50% of cutaneous melanomas. Vemurafenib (Zelboraf(®) ; Roche Molecular Systems Inc., Pleasanton, CA, U.S.A.) is the first licensed inhibitor of mutated BRAF, and offers a new first-line option for patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma who harbour BRAF mutations. Vemurafenib was developed in conjunction with a companion diagnostic, the cobas(®) 4800 BRAF V600 Mutation Test. The purpose of this paper is to make evidence-based recommendations to facilitate the implementation of BRAF mutation testing and targeted therapy in patients with metastatic melanoma in the U.K. The recommendations are the result of a meeting of an expert panel and have been reviewed by melanoma specialists and representatives of the National Cancer Research Network Clinical Study Group on behalf of the wider melanoma community. This article is intended to be a starting point for practical advice and recommendations, which will no doubt be updated as we gain further experience in personalizing therapy for patients with melanoma.

Significantly improved PCR-based clonality testing in B-cell malignancies by use of multiple immunoglobulin gene targets: Report of the BIOMED-2 Concerted Action BHM4-CT98-3936.

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assessment of clonal immunoglobulin (Ig) and T-cell receptor (TCR) gene rearrangements is an important diagnostic tool in mature B-cell neoplasms. However, lack of standardized PCR protocols resulting in a high level of false negativity has hampered comparability of data in previous clonality studies. In order to address these problems, 22 European laboratories investigated the Ig/TCR rearrangement patterns as well as t(14;18) and t(11;14) translocations of 369 B-cell malignancies belonging to five WHO-defined entities using the standardized BIOMED-2 multiplex PCR tubes accompanied by international pathology panel review. B-cell clonality was detected by combined use of the IGH and IGK multiplex PCR assays in all 260 definitive cases of B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukemia (n¼56), mantle cell lymphoma (n¼54), marginal zone lymphoma (n¼41) and follicular lymphoma (n¼109). Two of 109 cases of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma showed no detectable clonal marker. The use of these techniques to assign cell lineage should be treated with caution as additional clonal TCR gene rearrangements were frequently detected in all disease categories. Our study indicates that the BIOMED-2 multiplex PCR assays provide a powerful strategy for clonality assessment in B-cell malignancies resulting in high Ig clonality detection rates particularly when IGH and IGK strategies are combined.

Panel unit root tests in the presence of cross-sectional dependence: finite sample performance and an application

This paper examines the finite sample properties of three testing regimes for the null hypothesis of a panel unit root against stationary alternatives in the presence of cross-sectional correlation. The regimes of Bai and Ng (2004), Moon and Perron (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are assessed in the presence of multiple factors and also other non-standard situations. The behaviour of some information criteria used to determine the number of factors in a panel is examined and new information criteria with improved properties in small-N panels proposed. An application to the efficient markets hypothesis is also provided. The null hypothesis of a panel random walk is not rejected by any of the tests, supporting the efficient markets hypothesis in the financial services sector of the Australian Stock Exchange.

Developing an international Pseudomonas aeruginosa reference panel

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major opportunistic pathogen in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and causes a wide range of infections among other susceptible populations. Its inherent resistance to many antimicrobials also makes it difficult to treat infections with this pathogen. Recent evidence has highlighted the diversity of this species, yet despite this, the majority of studies on virulence and pathogenesis focus on a small number of strains. There is a pressing need for a P. aeruginosa reference panel to harmonize and coordinate the collective efforts of the P. aeruginosa research community. We have collated a panel of 43 P. aeruginosa strains that reflects the organism's diversity. In addition to the commonly studied clones, this panel includes transmissible strains, sequential CF isolates, strains with specific virulence characteristics, and strains that represent serotype, genotype or geographic diversity. This focussed panel of P. aeruginosa isolates will help accelerate and consolidate the discovery of virulence determinants, improve our understanding of the pathogenesis of infections caused by this pathogen, and provide the community with a valuable resource for the testing of novel therapeutic agents.

Phenotypic characterization of an international Pseudomonas aeruginosa reference panel: strains of cystic fibrosis (CF) origin show less in vivo virulence than non-CF strains

Pseudomonas aeruginosa causes chronic lung infections in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) and acute opportunistic infections in people without CF. Forty two P. aeruginosa strains from a range of clinical and environmental sources were collated into a single reference strain panel to harmonise research on this diverse opportunistic pathogen. To facilitate further harmonized and comparable research on P. aeruginosa, we characterised the panel strains for growth rates, motility, virulence in the Galleria mellonella infection model, pyocyanin and alginate production, mucoid phenotype, lipopolysaccharide (LPS) pattern, biofilm formation, urease activity, antimicrobial and phage susceptibilities. Phenotypic diversity across the P. aeruginosa panel was apparent for all phenotypes examined agreeing with the marked variability seen in this species. However, except for growth rate, the phenotypic diversity among strains from CF versus non-CF sources was comparable. CF strains were less virulent in the G. mellonella model than non-CF strains (p=0.037). Transmissible CF strains generally lacked O antigen, produced less pyocyanin, and had low virulence in G. mellonella. Further, in the three sets of sequential CF strains, virulence, O-antigen expression and pyocyanin production were higher in the earlier isolate compared to the isolate obtained later in infection. Overall, full phenotypic characterization of the defined panel of P. aeruginosa strains increases our understanding of the virulence and pathogenesis of P. aeruginosa and may provide a valuable resource for the testing of novel therapies against this problematic pathogen.