A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks

Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Part-whole relations between food webs and the validity of local food-web descriptions

This work analyzes the relationship between large food webs describing potential feeding relations between species and smaller sub-webs thereof describing relations actually realized in local communities of various sizes. Special attention is given to the relationships between patterns of phylogenetic correlations encountered in large webs and sub-webs. Based on the current theory of food-web topology as implemented in the matching model, it is shown that food webs are scale invariant in the following sense: given a large web described by the model, a smaller, randomly sampled sub-web thereof is described by the model as well. A stochastic analysis of model steady states reveals that such a change in scale goes along with a re-normalization of model parameters. Explicit formulae for the renormalized parameters are derived. Thus, the topology of food webs at all scales follows the same patterns, and these can be revealed by data and models referring to the local scale alone. As a by-product of the theory, a fast algorithm is derived which yields sample food webs from the exact steady state of the matching model for a high-dimensional trophic niche space in finite time. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Biospheric Project - Manchester International Festival 2013:Technical food systems

The Biospheric Project is a nested multi-scalar urban agriculture project that aims to develop sustainable food systems in disadvantaged communities, though not only physical interventions, such as the urban masterplan and neighbourhood design to the building and its roof and façade, but also through social and commercial interventions, such as community involvement, businesses and a distribution system.

The project is focused around the Biospheric Foundation, a community interest company and research think-tank whose aim is to hasten our transition to a closed cycle, low-carbon economy. Its home is Irwell house, that houses a large-scale aquaponic-based food production system, which is directly linked to a whole-food shop (78 Steps, named after the distance from the productive system) and a whole food distribution system (the Whole Box). The building sits within a post-industrial landscape which is being developed into a new productive landscape, utilizing the the technologies developed by the Biospheric Foundation and Prof Greg Keeffe of Queens University Belfast. The collaboration links designer, academics and activists across the disciplines of Urban design, Architecture, Permaculture, landscape design, environmental science and business and community.

The impact of climate change on existing and emerging microbial threats across the food chain: an island of Ireland perspective

The Agri-Food and aquaculture industries are vital to the economy of the island of Ireland with a gross annual output that is expected to double in the future. Identifying and understanding the potential influences of the anticipated climate variables on microorganisms that cause foodborne diseases, and their impact on these local industries, are essential. Investigating and monitoring foodborne pathogens and factors that influence their growth, transmission, pathogenesis and survival will facilitate assessment of the stability, security and vulnerability of the continuously evolving and increasing complex local food supply chain.

Predatory fish loss affects the structure and functioning of a model marine food web

The rate of species loss is increasing on a global scale and predators are most at risk from human-induced extinction. The effects of losing predators are difficult to predict, even with experimental single species removals, because different combinations of species interact in unpredictable ways. We tested the effects of the loss of groups of common predators on herbivore and algal assemblages in a model benthic marine system. The predator groups were fish, shrimp and crabs. Each group was represented by at least two characteristic species based on data collected at local field sites. We examined the effects of the loss of predators while controlling for the loss of predator biomass. The identity, not the number of predator groups, affected herbivore abundance and assemblage structure. Removing fish led to a large increase in the abundance of dominant herbivores, such as Ampithoids and Caprellids. Predator identity also affected algal assemblage structure. It did not, however, affect total algal mass. Removing fish led to an increase in the final biomass of the least common taxa (red algae) and reduced the mass of the dominant taxa (brown algae). This compensatory shift in the algal assemblage appeared to facilitate the maintenance of a constant total algal biomass. In the absence of fish, shrimp at higher than ambient densities had a similar effect on herbivore abundance, showing that other groups could partially compensate for the loss of dominant predators. Crabs had no effect on herbivore or algal populations, possibly because they were not at carrying capacity in our experimental system. These findings show that contrary to the assumptions of many food web models, predators cannot be classified into a single functional group and their role in food webs depends on their identity and density in 'real' systems and carrying capacities.

Assessing the extent to which temporal changes in waterbird community composition are driven by either local, regional or global factors.

1. Lough Neagh and Lough Beg Special Protection Area (SPA, hereafter Lough Neagh) is an important non-estuarine site in Britain and Ireland for overwintering wildfowl. Multivariate analysis of the winter counts showed a state-shift in the waterbird community following winter 2000/2001, mostly due to rapid declines in abundance (46–57% declines in the mean mid-winter January counts between 1993–2000 and 2002–2009) of members of the diving duck guild (pochard Aythya ferina, tufted duck Aythya fuligula and goldeneye Bucephala clangula) and coot (Fulica atra), a submerged macrophyte feeder.
2. Only pochard showed correlations between declines at Lough Neagh and those of overall species flyway population indices to suggest that global changes could contribute to declines at the site. However, indices from the Republic of Ireland showed no overall decline in the rest of Ireland. Tufted duck indices at the site were inversely related to indices in Great Britain. Lough Neagh goldeneye indices were positively correlated with indices in the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain, suggesting that short-stopping could contribute to declines at the site. Coot declines at Lough Neagh did not correlate with trends elsewhere, suggesting local factors involved in the decline.
3. These analyses indicate that although there are potentially different explanations for the dramatic declines in these four waterbird species at this site, the simultaneous nature of the declines across two feeding guilds strongly
suggest that local factors (such as loss of submerged macrophytes and benthic invertebrates) were involved. An assessment of the food supply, local disturbance and other factors at Lough Neagh is required to find an explanation for the observed adverse trends in wintering numbers of the affected species.
4. This study highlights the potential of waterbird community structure to reflect the status of aquatic systems, but confirms the need to establish site-specific factors responsible for the observed changes in abundance of key waterbird species at a site.

Kernel-based local order estimation of nonlinear nonparametric systems

We consider the local order estimation of nonlinear autoregressive systems with exogenous inputs (NARX), which may have different local dimensions at different points. By minimizing the kernel-based local information criterion introduced in this paper, the strongly consistent estimates for the local orders of the NARX system at points of interest are obtained. The modification of the criterion and a simple procedure of searching the minimum of the criterion, are also discussed. The theoretical results derived here are tested by simulation examples.

Genetic maternity and paternity in a local population of armadillos assessed by microsatellite DNA markers and field data.

Genetic data from polymorphic microsatellite loci were employed to estimate paternity and maternity in a local population of nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) in northern Florida. The parentage assessments took advantage of maximum likelihood procedures developed expressly for situations when individuals of neither gender can be excluded a priori as candidate parents. The molecular data for 290 individuals, interpreted alone and in conjunction with detailed biological and spatial information for the population, demonstrate high exclusion probabilities and reasonably strong likelihoods of genetic parentage assignment in many cases; low mean probabilities of successful reproductive contribution to the local population by individual armadillo adults in a given year; and statistically significant microspatial associations of parents and their offspring. Results suggest that molecular assays of highly polymorphic genetic systems can add considerable power to assessments of biological parentage in natural populations even when neither parent is otherwise known.