Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual Thrower Versus Real Goalkeeper: The Influence of Different Visual Conditions on Performance

In order to use virtual reality as a sport analysis tool, we need to be sure that an immersed athlete reacts realistically in a virtual environment. This has been validated for a real handball goalkeeper facing a virtual thrower. However, we currently ignore which visual variables induce a realistic motor behavior of the immersed handball goalkeeper. In this study, we used virtual reality to dissociate the visual information related to the movements of the player from the visual information related to the trajectory of the ball. Thus, the aim is to evaluate the relative influence of these different visual information sources on the goalkeeper's motor behavior. We tested 10 handball goalkeepers who had to predict the final position of the virtual ball in the goal when facing the following: only the throwing action of the attacking player (TA condition), only the resulting ball trajectory (BA condition), and both the throwing action of the attacking player and the resulting ball trajectory (TB condition). Here we show that performance was better in the BA and TB conditions, but contrary to expectations, performance was substantially worse in the TA condition. A significant effect of ball landing zone does, however, suggest that the relative importance between visual information from the player and the ball depends on the targeted zone in the goal. In some cases, body-based cues embedded in the throwing actions may have a minor influence on the ball trajectory and vice versa. Kinematics analysis was then combined with these results to determine why such differences occur depending on the ball landing zone and consequently how it can clarify the role of different sources of visual information on the motor behavior of an athlete immersed in a virtual environment.

On the Sources of Private Information in FX Markets

We investigate the source of information advantage in inter-dealer FX trading using data on trades and counterparty identities. In liquid dollar exchange rates, information is concentrated among dealers that trade most frequently and specialize their activity in a particular rate. In cross-rates, traders that engage in triangular arbitrage are best informed. Better-informed traders are also located on larger trading floors. In cross-rates, the ability to forecast flows explains all of the advantage of the triangular arbitrageurs. In liquid dollar rates, specialist traders can forecast both order flow and the component of exchange rate changes that is uncorrelated with flow.

Fusion rules for merging uncertain information

In previous papers, we have presented a logic-based framework based on fusion rules for merging structured news reports. Structured news reports are XML documents, where the textentries are restricted to individual words or simple phrases, such as names and domain-specific terminology, and numbers and units. We assume structured news reports do not require natural language processing. Fusion rules are a form of scripting language that define how structured news reports should be merged. The antecedent of a fusion rule is a call to investigate the information in the structured news reports and the background knowledge, and the consequent of a fusion rule is a formula specifying an action to be undertaken to form a merged report. It is expected that a set of fusion rules is defined for any given application. In this paper we extend the approach to handling probability values, degrees of beliefs, or necessity measures associated with textentries in the news reports. We present the formal definition for each of these types of uncertainty and explain how they can be handled using fusion rules. We also discuss the methods of detecting inconsistencies among sources.

Philosophers and practical men: Charles Babbage, Irish merchants and the economics of information

Before the emergence of coordination of production by firms, manufacturers and merchants traded in markets with asymmetric information. Evidence suggests that the practical knowledge thus gained by these agents was well in advance of contemporary political economists and anticipates twentieth-century developments in the economics of information. Charles Babbage, who regarded merchants and manufacturers as the chief sources of reliable economic data, drew on this knowledge as revealed in the evidence of manufacturers and merchants presented to House of Commons select committees to make an important pioneering contribution to the theory of production and exchange with information asymmetries.

Haptic information stabilizes and destabilizes coordination dynamics

Goal-directed, coordinated movements in humans emerge from a variety of constraints that range from 'high-level' cognitive strategies based oil perception of the task to 'low-level' neuromuscular-skeletal factors such as differential contributions to coordination from flexor and extensor muscles. There has been a tendency in the literature to dichotomize these sources of constraint, favouring one or the other rather than recognizing and understanding their mutual interplay. In this experiment, subjects were required to coordinate rhythmic flexion and extension movements with an auditory metronome, the rate of which was systematically increased. When subjects started in extension on the beat of the metronome, there was a small tendency to switch to flexion at higher rates, but not vice versa. When subjects: were asked to contact a physical stop, the location of which was either coincident with or counterphase to the auditor) stimulus, two effects occurred. When haptic contact was coincident with sound, coordination was stabilized for both flexion and extension. When haptic contact was counterphase to the metronome, coordination was actually destabilized, with transitions occurring from both extension to flexion on the beat and from flexion to extension on the beat. These results reveal the complementary nature of strategic and neuromuscular factors in sensorimotor coordination. They also suggest the presence of a multimodal neural integration process-which is parametrizable by rate and context - in which intentional movement, touch and sound are bound into a single, coherent unit.

A Context-Dependent Algorithm for Merging Uncertain Information in Possibility Theory

The need to merge multiple sources of uncertaininformation is an important issue in many application areas,especially when there is potential for contradictions betweensources. Possibility theory offers a flexible framework to represent,and reason with, uncertain information, and there isa range of merging operators, such as the conjunctive anddisjunctive operators, for combining information. However, withthe proposals to date, the context of the information to be mergedis largely ignored during the process of selecting which mergingoperators to use. To address this shortcoming, in this paper,we propose an adaptive merging algorithm which selects largelypartially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCSs) of sources, thatcan be merged through relaxation of the conjunctive operator, byassessing the coherence of the information in each subset. In thisway, a fusion process can integrate both conjunctive and disjunctiveoperators in a more flexible manner and thereby be morecontext dependent. A comparison with related merging methodsshows how our algorithm can produce a more consensual result.

Imaging of dipole sources and transfer of modulated signals using phase conjugating lens techniques

The authors discuss the imaging properties and transfer of amplitude and phase-modulated signals through a phase conjugating lens (PCL). The authors outline the mechanisms of the near-field and far-field subwavelength imaging of Hertzian dipole sources using PCL, particularly the authors show that one-dimensional subwavelength resolution of multiple sources is possible in the far-field using a PCL augmented with specially designed scatterers located in both the adjacent vicinity of the sources and in the mirror symmetric positions in the image plane. These scatterers enable evanescent-to-propagating spectrum and its dual, propagating-to-evanescent, field conversion. Thus, the subwavelength information encoded into propagating waves on the source side can be extracted on the image side. Next, for the first time the transfer of amplitude and phase modulated signals through a PCL augmented with evanescent-to-propagating spectrum conversion is discussed and it has been demonstrated that multiple amplitude or phase modulated dipole sources can be distinguished in the far-field with subwavelength resolution without the necessity for numerical post-processing of the received data. From the study conducted here, it is concluded that a system of transmitters/receivers augmented with a PCL and appropriate scatterers operates without the need for any numerical processing of the receive data in order to separate channel information from very close proximity stations.

Providing Legal Information and Advice to Older People: as much a question of accessibility as affordability

No continent has as high a proportion of older people as Europe. In this paper, we report the findings of an empirical project examining the legal advice needs of older people. An important element of the project also sought information about the capacity of the internet for meeting the legal advice needs of older people. Overall our findings broadly indicate considerable failings in legal information provision for older people from more traditional advice sources. Whilst we have uncovered some examples of individualised good practice, our research in the main revealed an alarming sense of fear, mistrust, uncertainty and ambivalence among older people towards accessing legal advice. The research was funded by the Changing Ageing Partnership (CAP). We believe our findings have broad implications and applicability across Europe.

Combining multisensory temporal information for movement synchronisation

The ability to synchronise actions with environmental events is a fundamental skill supporting a variety of group activities. In such situations, multiple sensory cues are usually available for synchronisation, yet previous studies have suggested that auditory cues dominate those from other modalities. We examine the control of rhythmic action on the basis of auditory and haptic cues and show that performance is sensitive to both sources of information for synchronisation. Participants were required to tap the dominant hand index finger in synchrony with a metronome defined by periodic auditory tones, imposed movements of the non-dominant index finger, or both cues together. Synchronisation was least variable with the bimodal metronome as predicted by a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) model. However, increases in timing variability of the auditory cue resulted in some departures from the MLE model. Our findings indicate the need for further investigation of the MLE account of the integration of multisensory signals in the temporal control of action.

Relevance and truthfulness in information correction and fusion

A general approach to information correction and fusion for belief functions is proposed, where not only may the information items be irrelevant, but sources may lie as well. We introduce a new correction scheme, which takes into account uncertain metaknowledge on the source’s relevance and truthfulness and that generalizes Shafer’s discounting operation. We then show how to reinterpret all connectives of Boolean logic in terms of source behavior assumptions with respect to relevance and truthfulness. We are led to generalize the unnormalized Dempster’s rule to all Boolean connectives, while taking into account the uncertainties pertaining to assumptions concerning the behavior of sources. Eventually, we further extend this approach to an even more general setting, where source behavior assumptions do not have to be restricted to relevance and truthfulness.We also establish the commutativity property between correction and fusion processes, when the behaviors of the sources are independent.

Possibilistic Information Fusion Using Maximal Coherent Subsets

When multiple sources provide information about the same unknown quantity, their fusion into a synthetic interpretable message is often a tedious problem, especially when sources are conicting. In this paper, we propose to use possibility theory and the notion of maximal coherent subsets, often used in logic-based representations, to build a fuzzy belief structure that will be instrumental both for extracting useful information about various features of the information conveyed by the sources and for compressing this information into a unique possibility distribution. Extensions and properties of the basic fusion rule are also studied.

Whose statistical reasoning is improved by information about causal structure?

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430–450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples’ errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.