‘Risk, Politics and the ‘Scientification’ of Political Judgement: Prisoner Release and Conflict Transformation in Northern Ireland’

Drawing on research in Northern Ireland into the process of release under the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, this article explores the identification and classification of risk in relation to prisoners released early under the Sentences (NI) Act. The main argument is that conflict, post-conflict and transitional conditions expose more starkly the political underpinnings of risk-management strategy and the article demonstrates the particular variant of Politicized Risk Assessment (PRA) recently used in the release of prisoners in Northern Ireland

Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

It's good to be queen: classically eusocial colony structure and low worker fitness in an obligately eusocial sweat bee.

Lasioglossum malachurum, a bee species common across much of Europe, is obligately eusocial across its range but exhibits clear geographic variation in demography and social behaviour. This variation suggests that social interactions between queens and workers, opportunities for worker oviposition, and patterns of relatedness among nest mates may vary considerably, both within and among regions. In this study, we used three microsatellite loci with 12–18 alleles each to examine the sociogenetic structure of colonies from a population at Agios Nikolaos Monemvasias in southern Greece. These analyses reveal that the majority of colonies exhibit classical eusocial colony structure in which a single queen mated to a single male monopolizes oviposition. Nevertheless, we also detect low rates of multiqueen nest founding, occasional caste switching by worker-destined females, and worker oviposition of both gyne and male-producing eggs in the final brood. Previous evidence that the majority of workers show some ovarian development and a minority (17%) have at least one large oocyte contrasts with the observation that only 2–3% of gynes and males (the so-called reproductive brood) are produced by workers. An evaluation of the parameters of Hamilton's Rule suggests that queens benefit greatly from the help provided by workers but that workers achieve greater fitness by provisioning and laying their own eggs rather than by tending to the queen's eggs. This conflict of interest between the queen and her workers suggests that the discrepancy between potential and achieved worker oviposition is due to queen interference. Comparison of relatedness and maternity patterns in the Agios Nikolaos Monemvasias population with those from a northern population near Tübingen, Germany, points to a north–south cline of increasingly effective queen control of worker behaviour.