Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

Cognitive and task-related EEG correlates of arithmetic performance in adolescents

Cognitive and neurophysiological correlates of arithmetic calculation, concepts, and applications were examined in 41 adolescents, ages 12-15 years. Psychological and task-related EEG measures which correctly distinguished children who scored low vs. high (using a median split) in each arithmetic subarea were interpreted as indicative of processes involved. Calculation was related to visual-motor sequencing, spatial visualization, theta activity measured during visual-perceptual and verbal tasks at right- and left-hemisphere locations, and right-hemisphere alpha activity measured during a verbal task. Performance on arithmetic word problems was related to spatial visualization and perception, vocabulary, and right-hemisphere alpha activity measured during a verbal task. Results suggest a complex interplay of spatial and sequential operations in arithmetic performance, consistent with processing model concepts of lateralized brain function.

Coupled Temperature-Displacement Modelling of Injection Stretch Blow Moulding of PET bottles using Buckley Model

This study presents a fully coupled temperature–displacement finite element modelling of the injection stretch-blow moulding (ISBM) process of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottles using ABAQUS with a view to optimising the process conditions. A physically-based material model (Buckley model) was used to predict the mechanical behaviour of PET at temperatures slightly above its glass transition temperature. A model incorporating heat transfer between the stretch rod, the preform and the mould was built using axisymmetric solid elements. Extensive finite element analyses were carried out to predict the deformation, the distribution and history of strain and temperature during ISBM of a 20 g–330 ml bottle, which was made in an in situ test on a Sidel SB06 machine. Comparisons of numerical results with the measurements demonstrate that the model can satisfactorily model the sidewall thickness and material distributions. It is also shown that significant non-linear differentials exist in temperature and strain in both bottle thickness and length directions during the process. This justifies the employment of a volume approach to accurately predict the final mechanical properties of the bottles governed by the orientation and crystallinity which are highly temperature and strain dependent.

Neurobiological model of visuo-spatial cognition in young Williams Syndrome children: measures of dorsal-stream and frontal function

We examine hypotheses for the neural basis of the profile of visual cognition in young children with Williams syndrome (WS). These are: (a) that it is a consequence of anomalies in sensory visual processing; (b) that it is a deficit of the dorsal relative to the ventral cortical stream; (c) that it reflects deficit of frontal function, in particular of fronto-parietal interaction; (d) that it is related to impaired function in the right hemisphere relative to the left. The tests reported here are particularly relevant to (b) and (c). They form part of a more extensive programme of investigating visual, visuospatial, and cognitive function in large group of children with WS children, aged 8 months to 15 years. To compare performance across tests, avoiding floor and ceiling effects, we have measured performance in children with WS in terms of the ‘age equivalence’ for typically developing children. In this paper the relation between dorsal and ventral function was tested by motion and form coherence thresholds respectively. We confirm the presence of a subgroup of children with WS who perform particularly poorly on the motion (dorsal) task. However, such performance is also characteristic of normally developingchildren up to 5 years: thus the WS performance may reflect an overall persisting immaturity of visuospatial processing which is particularly evident in the dorsal stream. Looking at the performance on the global coherence tasks of the entire WS group, we find that there is also a subgroup who have both high form and motion coherence thresholds, relative to the performance of children of the same chronological age and verbal age on the BPVS, suggesting a more general global processing deficit. Frontal function was tested by a counterpointing task, ability to retrieve a ball from a ‘detour box’, and the Stroop-like ‘day-night’ task, all of which require inhibition of a familiar response. When considered in relation to overall development as indexed by vocabulary, the day-night task shows little specific impairment, the detour box shows a significant delay relative to controls, and the counterpointing task shows a marked and persistent deficit in many children. We conclude that frontal control processes show most impairment in WS when they are associated with spatially directed responses, reflecting a deficit of fronto-parietal processing. However, children with WS may successfully reduce the effect of this impairment by verbally mediated strategies. On all these tasks we find a range of difficulties across individual children and a small subset of WS who show very good performance, equivalent to chronological age norms of typically developing children. Neurobiological models of visuo-spatial cognition in children with WS p.4 Overall, we conclude that children with WS have specific processing difficulties with tasks involving frontoparietal circuits within the spatial domain. However, some children with WS can achieve similar performance to typically developing children on some tasks involving the dorsal stream, although the strategies and processing may be different in the two groups.

Emotional speech: towards a new generation of databases

Research on speech and emotion is moving from a period of exploratory research into one where there is a prospect of substantial applications, notably in human-computer interaction. Progress in the area relies heavily on the development of appropriate databases. This paper addresses the issues that need to be considered in developing databases of emotional speech, and shows how the challenge of developing apropriate databases is being addressed in three major recent projects - the Belfast project, the Reading-Leeds project and the CREST-ESP project. From these and other studies the paper draws together the tools and methods that have been developed, addresses the problems that arise and indicates the future directions for the development of emotional speech databases.

Speech Recognition with unknown partial feature corruption - a review of the union model

This paper provides a summary of our studies on robust speech recognition based on a new statistical approach – the probabilistic union model. We consider speech recognition given that part of the acoustic features may be corrupted by noise. The union model is a method for basing the recognition on the clean part of the features, thereby reducing the effect of the noise on recognition. To this end, the union model is similar to the missing feature method. However, the two methods achieve this end through different routes. The missing feature method usually requires the identity of the noisy data for noise removal, while the union model combines the local features based on the union of random events, to reduce the dependence of the model on information about the noise. We previously investigated the applications of the union model to speech recognition involving unknown partial corruption in frequency band, in time duration, and in feature streams. Additionally, a combination of the union model with conventional noise-reduction techniques was studied, as a means of dealing with a mixture of known or trainable noise and unknown unexpected noise. In this paper, a unified review, in the context of dealing with unknown partial feature corruption, is provided into each of these applications, giving the appropriate theory and implementation algorithms, along with an experimental evaluation.

Modelling the correlation between processing parameters and properties of maraging steels using artificial neural network

An artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for the analysis and simulation of the correlation between the properties of maraging steels and composition, processing and working conditions. The input parameters of the model consist of alloy composition, processing parameters (including cold deformation degree, ageing temperature, and ageing time), and working temperature. The outputs of the ANN model include property parameters namely: ultimate tensile strength, yield strength, elongation, reduction in area, hardness, notched tensile strength, Charpy impact energy, fracture toughness, and martensitic transformation start temperature. Good performance of the ANN model is achieved. The model can be used to calculate properties of maraging steels as functions of alloy composition, processing parameters, and working condition. The combined influence of Co and Mo on the properties of maraging steels is simulated using the model. The results are in agreement with experimental data. Explanation of the calculated results from the metallurgical point of view is attempted. The model can be used as a guide for further alloy development.

A computational model for the cooling phase of injection moulding

This paper discusses the approaches and techniques used to build a realistic numerical model to analyse the cooling phase of the injection moulding process. The procedures employed to select an appropriate mesh and the boundary and initial conditions for the problem are discussed and justified. The final model is validated using direct comparisons with experimental results generated in an earlier study. The model is shown to be a useful tool for further studies aimed at optimising the cooling phase of the injection moulding process. Using the numerical model provides additional information relating to changes in conditions throughout the process, which otherwise could not be deduced or assessed experimentally. These results, and other benefits related to the use of the model, are also discussed in the paper. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast model based feature matching technique applied to airport lighting

The use of image processing techniques to assess the performance of airport landing lighting using images of it collected from an aircraft-mounted camera is documented. In order to assess the performance of the lighting, it is necessary to uniquely identify each luminaire within an image and then track the luminaires through the entire sequence and store the relevant information for each luminaire, that is, the total number of pixels that each luminaire covers and the total grey level of these pixels. This pixel grey level can then be used for performance assessment. The authors propose a robust model-based (MB) featurematching technique by which the performance is assessed. The development of this matching technique is the key to the automated performance assessment of airport lighting. The MB matching technique utilises projective geometry in addition to accurate template of the 3D model of a landing-lighting system. The template is projected onto the image data and an optimum match found, using nonlinear least-squares optimisation. The MB matching software is compared with standard feature extraction and tracking techniques known within the community, these being the Kanade–Lucus–Tomasi (KLT) and scaleinvariant feature transform (SIFT) techniques. The new MB matching technique compares favourably with the SIFT and KLT feature-tracking alternatives. As such, it provides a solid foundation to achieve the central aim of this research which is to automatically assess the performance of airport lighting.

Population-based local search for protein folding simulation in the MJ energy model and cubic lattices

We present experimental results on benchmark problems in 3D cubic lattice structures with the Miyazawa-Jernigan energy function for two local search procedures that utilise the pull-move set: (i) population-based local search (PLS) that traverses the energy landscape with greedy steps towards (potential) local minima followed by upward steps up to a certain level of the objective function; (ii) simulated annealing with a logarithmic cooling schedule (LSA). The parameter settings for PLS are derived from short LSA-runs executed in pre-processing and the procedure utilises tabu lists generated for each member of the population. In terms of the total number of energy function evaluations both methods perform equally well, however. PLS has the potential of being parallelised with an expected speed-up in the region of the population size. Furthermore, both methods require a significant smaller number of function evaluations when compared to Monte Carlo simulations with kink-jump moves. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.