Modelling and Prediction of NOx Emission in a Coal-Fired Power Generation Plant

In this paper NOx emissions modelling for real-time operation and control of a 200 MWe coal-fired power generation plant is studied. Three model types are compared. For the first model the fundamentals governing the NOx formation mechanisms and a system identification technique are used to develop a grey-box model. Then a linear AutoRegressive model with eXogenous inputs (ARX) model and a non-linear ARX model (NARX) are built. Operation plant data is used for modelling and validation. Model cross-validation tests show that the developed grey-box model is able to consistently produce better overall long-term prediction performance than the other two models.

Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficiency assessment of electricity power generation on Ireland’s Single Electricity Market by Data Envelopment Analysis

The efficiency of generation plants is an important measure for evaluating the operating performance. The objective of this paper is to evaluate electricity power generation by conducting an All-Island-Generator-Efficiency-Study (AIGES) for the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland by utilising a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. An operational performance efficiency index is defined and pursued for the year 2008. The economic activities of electricity generation units/plants examined in this paper are characterized by numerous input and output indicators. Constant returns to scale (CRS) and variable returns to scale (VRS) type DEA models are employed in the analysis. Also a slacks based analysis indicates the level of inefficiency for each variable examined. The findings from this study provide a general ranking and evaluation but also facilitate various interesting efficiency comparisons between generators by fuel type.

A Reliability Assessment Approach For Integrated Transportation and Electrical Power Systems Incorporating Electric Vehicles

With the increasing utilization of electric vehicles (EVs), transportation systems and electrical power systems are becoming increasingly coupled. However, the interaction between these two kinds of systems are not well captured, especially from the perspective of transportation systems. This paper studies the reliability of integrated transportation and electrical power system (ITES). A bidirectional EV charging control strategy is first demonstrated to model the interaction between the two systems. Thereafter, a simplified transportation system model is developed, whose high efficiency makes the reliability assessment of the ITES realizable with an acceptable accuracy. Novel transportation system reliability indices are then defined from the view point of EV’s driver. Based on the charging control model and the transportation simulation method, a daily periodic quasi sequential reliability assessment method is proposed for the ITES system. Case studies based on RBTS system demonstrate that bidirectional charging controls of EVs will benefit the reliability of power systems, while decrease the reliability of EVs travelling. Also, the optimal control strategy can be obtained based on the proposed method. Finally, case studies are performed based on a large scale test system to verify the practicability of the proposed method.

Damping Torque Analysis of Power Systems with DFIGs for Wind Power Generation

A grid-connected DFIG for wind power generation can affect power system small-signal angular stability in two ways: by changing the system load flow condition and dynamically interacting with synchronous generators (SGs). This paper presents the application of conventional method of damping torque analysis (DTA) to examine the effect of DFIG’s dynamic interactions with SGs on the small-signal angular stability. It shows that the effect is due to the dynamic variation of power exchange between the DFIG and power system and can be estimated approximately by the DTA. Consequently, if the DFIG is modelled as a constant power source when the effect of zero dynamic interactions is assumed, the impact of change of load flow brought about by the DFIG can be determined. Thus the total effect of DFIG can be estimated from the result of DTA added on that of constant power source model. Applications of the DTA method proposed in the paper are discussed. An example of multi-machine power systems with grid-connected DFIGs are presented to demonstrate and validate the DTA method proposed and conclusions obtained in the paper.

Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Generation in Europe

Studies have shown that large geographical spreading can reduce the wind power variability and smooth production. It is frequently assumed that storage and interconnection can manage wind power variability and are totally flexible. However, constraints do exist. In the future more and more electricity will be provided by renewable energy sources and more electricity interconnectors will be built between European Union (EU) countries, as outlines in many of the Projects of Common Interests. It is essential to understand the correlation of wind generation throughout Europe considering power system constraints. In this study the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power production across several countries is examined in order to understand how “the wind ‘travels’ across Europe”. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation from ten EU countries is analysed to investigate the geographic diversity and time scales influence on correlation of wind power variations. Results are then compared with two other studies and show similar general characteristics of correlation between EU country pairs to identify opportunities for storage optimisation, power system operations, and trading.