Oil and Dependency::The Case of Kazakhstan

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the newly independent oil-rich country of Kazakhstan has become a major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). Although international organisations such as the IMF and UNCTAD have claimed that FDI could be considered an engine in the transition from state socialism and as a powerful force for integration of this region into the global economy; this investment also poses significant risks to Kazakhstan. These risks fall into two broad categories: The first category can be broadly described as issues associated with the “resource curse” or the “Dutch Disease”. The term Dutch Disease describes a situation where booming demand in oil exporting countries, due to high oil revenues, leads to shift of an economy’s productive resources from the tradeable sector to the non-tradeable sector. The second category is associated with the over-dependency of oil exporting countries on a relatively small number of large multinational corporations (MNCs). This over-dependency can lead to a situation where licenses and concessions are granted at less favourable conditions than if they were auctioned in an efficient market. Examining the licensing policy of the Kazakhstani Energy and Mineral Resource Ministry, this paper notes that the latter issue of over-dependency has become less of a risk due to deliberate efforts to diversify investment relationships. Notwithstanding this situation there is some evidence that it remains difficult for oil exporting nations such as Kazakhstan to ensure that oil revenues are channelled into sustainable economic development.

Learning Bayesian networks from data: An information-theory based approach

This paper provides algorithms that use an information-theoretic analysis to learn Bayesian network structures from data. Based on our three-phase learning framework, we develop efficient algorithms that can effectively learn Bayesian networks, requiring only polynomial numbers of conditional independence (CI) tests in typical cases. We provide precise conditions that specify when these algorithms are guaranteed to be correct as well as empirical evidence (from real world applications and simulation tests) that demonstrates that these systems work efficiently and reliably in practice.

A hierarchical physical model-based approach to predictive control of a thermal power plant for efficient plant-wide disturbance rejection

Extending the work presented in Prasad et al. (IEEE Proceedings on Control Theory and Applications, 147, 523-37, 2000), this paper reports a hierarchical nonlinear physical model-based control strategy to account for the problems arising due to complex dynamics of drum level and governor valve, and demonstrates its effectiveness in plant-wide disturbance handling. The strategy incorporates a two-level control structure consisting of lower-level conventional PI regulators and a higher-level nonlinear physical model predictive controller (NPMPC) for mainly set-point manoeuvring. The lower-level PI loops help stabilise the unstable drum-boiler dynamics and allow faster governor valve action for power and grid-frequency regulation. The higher-level NPMPC provides an optimal load demand (or set-point) transition by effective handling of plant-wide interactions and system disturbances. The strategy has been tested in a simulation of a 200-MW oil-fired power plant at Ballylumford in Northern Ireland. A novel approach is devized to test the disturbance rejection capability in severe operating conditions. Low frequency disturbances were created by making random changes in radiation heat flow on the boiler-side, while condenser vacuum was fluctuating in a random fashion on the turbine side. In order to simulate high-frequency disturbances, pulse-type load disturbances were made to strike at instants which are not an integral multiple of the NPMPC sampling period. Impressive results have been obtained during both types of system disturbances and extremely high rates of load changes, right across the operating range, These results compared favourably with those from a conventional state-space generalized predictive control (GPC) method designed under similar conditions.

Efficient analysis, design, and filter applications of EBG waveguide with periodic resonant loads

An efficient analysis and design of an electromagnetic-bandgap (EBG) waveguide with resonant loads is presented. Equivalent-circuit analysis is employed to demonstrate the differences between EBG waveguides with resonant and nonresonant loadings. As a result of the resonance, transmission zeros at finite frequencies emerge. The concept is demonstrated in E-plane waveguides. A generic fast and efficient formulation is presented, which starts from the generalized scattering matrix of the unit cell and derives the dispersion properties of the infinite structure. Both real and imaginary parts of the propagation constant are derived and discussed. The Floquet wavelength and impedance are also presented. The theoretical results are validated by comparison with simulations of a finite structure and experimental results. The application of the proposed EBG waveguide in the suppression of the spurious passband of a conventional E-plane filter is presented by experiment.

Efficient modeling of novel uniplanar left-handed metamaterials

This paper presents an efficient. modeling technique for the derivation of the dispersion characteristics of novel uniplanar metallodielectric periodic structures. The analysis is based on the method of moments and an interpolation scheme, which significantly accelerates the computations. Triangular basis functions are used that allow for modeling of arbitrary shaped metallic elements. Based on this method, novel uniplanar left-handed (LH) metamaterials are proposed. Variations of the split rectangular-loop element printed on grounded dielectric substrate are demonstrated to possess LH propagation properties. Full-wave dispersion curves are presented. Based on the dual transmission-line concept, we study the distribution of the modal fields And the variation of series capacitance and shunt inductance for all the proposed elements. A verification of the left-handedness is presented by means of full-wave simulation of finite uniplanar arrays using commercial software (HFSS). The cell dimensions are a small fraction of the wavelength (approximately lambda/24) so that the structures can he considered as a homogeneous effective medium. The structures are simple, readily scalable to higher frequencies, and compatible with low-cost fabrication techniques.

Bio-folio: applying portfolio theory to biodiversity

Genes, species and ecosystems are often considered to be assets. The need to ensure a sufficient diversity of this asset is being increasingly recognised today. Asset managers in banks and insurance companies face a similar challenge. They are asked to manage the assets of their investors by constructing efficient portfolios. They deliberately make use of a phenomenon observed in the formation of portfolios: returns are additive, while risks diversify. This phenomenon and its implications are at the heart of portfolio theory. Portfolio theory, like few other economic theories, has dramatically transformed the practical work of banks and insurance companies. Before portfolio theory was developed about 50 years ago, asset managers were confronted with a situation similar to the situation the research on biodiversity faces today. While the need for diversification was generally accepted, a concept that linked risk and return on a portfolio level and showed the value of diversification was missing. Portfolio theory has closed this gap. This article first explains the fundamentals of portfolio theory and transfers it to biodiversity. A large part of this article is then dedicated to some of the implications portfolio theory has for the valuation and management of biodiversity. The last section introduces three development openings for further research.

Macroscopic limit of time-dependent density-functional theory for adiabatic local approximations of the exchange-correlation kernel

Time-dependent density-functional theory is a rather accurate and efficient way to compute electronic excitations for finite systems. However, in the macroscopic limit (systems of increasing size), for the usual adiabatic random-phase, local-density, or generalized-gradient approximations, one recovers the Kohn-Sham independent-particle picture, and thus the incorrect band gap. To clarify this trend, we investigate the macroscopic limit of the exchange-correlation kernel in such approximations by means of an algebraical analysis complemented with numerical studies of a one-dimensional tight-binding model. We link the failure to shift the Kohn-Sham spectrum of these approximate kernels to the fact that the corresponding operators in the transition space act only on a finite subspace.

Implementing efficient graphs in connection networks

We consider the problem of sharing the cost of a network that meets the connection demands of a set of agents. The agents simultaneously choose paths in the network connecting their demand nodes. A mechanism splits the total cost of the network formed among the participants. We introduce two new properties of implementation. The first property, Pareto Nash implementation (PNI), requires that the efficient outcome always be implemented in a Nash equilibrium and that the efficient outcome Pareto dominates any other Nash equilibrium. The average cost mechanism and other asymmetric variations are the only mechanisms that meet PNI. These mechanisms are also characterized under strong Nash implementation. The second property, weakly Pareto Nash implementation (WPNI), requires that the least inefficient equilibrium Pareto dominates any other equilibrium. The egalitarian mechanism (EG) and other asymmetric variations are the only mechanisms that meet WPNI and individual
rationality. EG minimizes the price of stability across all individually rational mechanisms. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Voltage over-scaling:A cross-layer design perspective for energy efficient systems

Today's multi-media electronic era is driven by the increasing demand for small multifunctional devices able to support diverse services. Unfortunately, the high levels of transistor integration and performance required by such devices lead to an unprecedented increase of on-chip power that significantly limits the battery lifetime and even poses reliability concerns. Several techniques have been developed to address the power increase, but voltage over-scaling (VOS) is considered to be one of the most effective ones due to the quadratic dependence of voltage on dynamic power consumption. However, VOS may not always be applicable since it increases the delay in all paths of a system and may limit high performance required by today's complex applications. In addition, application of VOS is further complicated since it increases the variations in transistor characteristics imposed by their tiny size which can lead to large delay and leakage variations, making it difficult to meet delay and power budgets. This paper presents a review of various cross-layer design options that can provide solutions for dynamic voltage over-scaling and can potentially assist in meeting the strict power budgets and yield/quality requirements of future systems. © 2011 IEEE.

Application of Asymmetric Marcus-Hush Theory to Voltammetry in Room-Temperature Ionic Liquids

Asymmetric MarcusHush (AMH) theory is applied for the first time in ionic solvents to model the voltammetric reduction of oxygen in 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium bis-(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)-imide and of 2-nitrotoluene (2-NT), nitrocyclopentane (NCP), and 1-nitro-butane (BuN) in trihexyltetradecylphosphonium tris(pentafluoroethyl)trifluorophosphate on a gold microdisc electrode. An asymmetry parameter, gamma, was estimated for all systems as -0.4 for the reduction of oxygen and -0.05, 0.25, and 0 +/- 0.05 for the reductions of 2-NT, NCP, and BuN, respectively, which suggests equal force constants of reactants and products in the case of 2-NT and BuN and unequal force constants for oxygen and NCP where the force constants of the oxidized species are greater than the reduced species in the case of oxygen and less than the reduced species in the case of NCP. Previously measured values for a, the Butler-Volmer transfer coefficient, reflect this in each case. Where appreciable asymmetry occurs, AMH theory was seen to parametrize the experimental data better than either Butler-Volmer or symmetric Marcus-Hush theory, allowing additionally the extraction of reorganization energy. This is the first study to provide key physical insights into electrochemical systems in room-temperature ionic liquids using AMH theory, allowing elucidation of the reorganization energies and the relative force constants of the reactants and products in each reaction.

Business Intelligence and Multi-market Competition

We consider a multi-market framework where a set of firms compete on two oligopolistic markets. The cost of production of each firm allows for spillovers across markets, ensuring that output decisions for both markets have to be made jointly. Prior to competing in these markets, firms can establish links gathering business intelligence about other firms. A link formed by a firm generates two types of externalities for competitors and consumers. We characterize the business intelligence equilibrium networks and networks that maximize social welfare. By contrast with single market competition, we show that in multi-market competition there exist situations where intelligence gathering activities are underdeveloped with regard to social welfare and should be tolerated, if not encouraged, by public authorities.

Market Economies with an Endogenous Social Division of Labour

This paper considers a general equilibrium theory of a competitive market economy with an endogenous social division of labour. The theory is founded on the notion of a “consumer- producer”, who consumes as well as produces commodities. In this approach, the emergence of a meaningful social division of labour is guided by the property of increasing returns to specialisation and the process of trade among fully specialised individuals. All decisions of individual consumer-producers are based on a set of perfectly competitive market prices of the commodities in the economy.
We show that a perfectly competitive price mechanism supports a dichotomy of production and consumption at the level of the individual consumer-producer. In this context we show existence of competitive equilibria and characterise these equilibria under increasing returns to specialisation: Under certain well-described conditions, markets are equilibrated through adjustment of the social division of labour; therefore prices are fully determined by the supply side of the economy.