31 resultados para EXTRAPOLATION

em QUB Research Portal - Research Directory and Institutional Repository for Queen's University Belfast


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The silicone elastomer solubilities of a range of drugs and pharmaceutical excipients employed in the development of silicone intravaginal drug delivery rings (polyethylene glycols, norethisterone acetate, estradiol, triclosan, oleyl alcohol, oxybutynin) have been determined using dynamic mechanical analysis. The method involves measuring the concentration-dependent decrease in the storage modulus associated with the melting of the incorporated drug/excipient, and extrapolation to zero change in storage modulus. The study also demonstrates the effect of drug/excipient concentrations on the mechanical stiffness of the silicone devices at 37°C.

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High-resolution, high signal-to-noise spectral data are presented for four young B-type stars lying towards the Galactic Centre. Determination of their atmospheric parameters from their absorption line profiles, and uvby photometric measurement of the continua indicate that they are massive objects lying slightly out of the plane, and were probably born in the disk between 2.5-5 kpc from the Centre. We have carried out a detailed absolute and differential line-by-line abundance analyses of the four stars compared to two stars with very similar atmospheric parameters in the solar neighbourhood. The stars appear to be rich in all the well sampled chemical elements (C, N, Si, Mg, S, Al), except for oxygen. Oxygen abundances derived in the atmospheres of these four stars are very similar to that in the solar neighbourhood. If the photospheric composition of these young stars is reflective of the gaseous ISM in the inner Galaxy, then the values derived for the enhanced metals are in excellent agreement with the extrapolation of the Galactic abundance gradients previously derived by Rolleston et al. (2000) and others. However, the data for oxygen suggests that the inner Galaxy may not be richer than normal in this element, and the physical reasons for such a scenario are unclear.

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A many-body theory approach is developed for the problem of positron-atom scattering and annihilation. Strong electron- positron correlations are included nonperturbatively through the calculation of the electron-positron vertex function. It corresponds to the sum of an infinite series of ladder diagrams, and describes the physical effect of virtual positronium formation. The vertex function is used to calculate the positron-atom correlation potential and nonlocal corrections to the electron-positron annihilation vertex. Numerically, we make use of B-spline basis sets, which ensures rapid convergence of the sums over intermediate states. We have also devised an extrapolation procedure that allows one to achieve convergence with respect to the number of intermediate- state orbital angular momenta included in the calculations. As a test, the present formalism is applied to positron scattering and annihilation on hydrogen, where it is exact. Our results agree with those of accurate variational calculations. We also examine in detail the properties of the large correlation corrections to the annihilation vertex.

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Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) level was reported by three independent assessors in a population of children with cerebral palsy (CP) aged between 4 and 18 years (n=184; 112 males, 72 females; mean age 10y 10mo [SD 3y 7mo]). A software algorithm also provided a computed GMFCS level from a regional CP registry. Participants had clinical diagnoses of unilateral (n=94) and bilateral (n=84) spastic CP, ataxia (n=4), dyskinesia (n=1), and hypotonia (n=1), and could walk independently with or without the use of an aid (GMFCS Levels I-IV). Research physiotherapist (n=184) and parent/guardian data (n=178) were collected in a research environment. Data from the child's community physiotherapist (n=143) were obtained by postal questionnaire. Results, using the kappa statistic with linear weighting (?1w), showed good agreement between the parent/guardian and research physiotherapist (?1w=0.75) with more moderate levels of agreement between the clinical physiotherapist and researcher (?1w=0.64) and the clinical physiotherapist and parent/guardian (?1w=0.57). Agreement was consistently better for older children (>2y). This study has shown that agreement with parent report increases with therapists'experience of the GMFCS and knowledge of the child at the time of grading. Substantial agreement between a computed GMFCS and an experienced therapist (?1w=0.74) also demonstrates the potential for extrapolation of GMFCS rating from an existing CP registry, providing the latter has sufficient data on locomotor ability.

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Current understanding of risk associated with low-dose radiation exposure has for many years been embedded in the linear-no-threshold (LNT) approach, based on simple extrapolation from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Radiation biology research has supported the LNT approach although much of this has been limited to relatively high-dose studies. Recently, with new advances for studying effects of low-dose exposure in experimental models and advances in molecular and cellular biology, a range of new effects of biological responses to radiation has been observed. These include genomic instability, adaptive responses and bystander effects. Most have one feature in common in that they are observed at low doses and suggest significant non-linear responses. These new observations pose a significant challenge to our understanding of low-dose exposure and require further study to elucidate mechanisms and determine their relevance.

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We use a network of cores from 77 peatland sites to determine controls on peat C content and peat C accumulation over the last 2000 years (since 2 ka) across Russia's West Siberian Lowland (WSL), the world's largest wetland region. Our results show a significant influence of fossil plant composition on peat C content, with peats dominated by Sphagnum having a lower C content. Radiocarbon-derived C accumulation since 2 ka at 23 sites is highly variable from site to site, but displays a significant N–S trend of decreasing accumulation at higher latitudes. Northern WSL peatlands show relatively small C accumulation of 7 to 35 kg C m-2 since 2 ka. In contrast, peatlands south of 60°N show larger accumulation of 42 to 88 kg C m-2. Carbon accumulation since 2 ka varies significantly with modern mean annual air temperature, with maximum C accumulation found between -1 and 0°C. Rates of apparent C accumulation since 2 ka show no significant relationship to long-term Holocene averages based on total C accumulation. A GIS-based extrapolation of our site data suggests that a substantial amount (~40%) of total WSL peat C has accumulated since 2 ka, with much of this accumulation south of 60°N. The large peatlands in the southern WSL may be an important component of the Eurasian terrestrial C sink, and future warming could result in a shift northward in long-term WSL C sequestration.

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Physico-chemical regimes of river systems are major determinants of the distributions and relative abundances of macroinvertebrate taxa. Other factors, however, such as biotic interactions, may co-vary with changes in physico-chemistry and concomitant changes in community composition. Thus, direct cause and effect relationships may not always be established from field surveys. Equally, however, laboratory studies may suffer from lack of realism in extrapolation to the field. Here, we use balanced field transplantation experiments to elucidate the role of physico-chemical regime in determining the generally mutually exclusive distributions of two amphipod taxa, Gammarus (two species) and Crangonyx pseudogracilis. Within two river systems in Ireland, the former species dominate stretches of well oxygenated, high-quality water, whereas the latter dominates stretches of poorly oxygenated, low-quality water. G. pulex and G. duebeni celticus did not survive in bioassay tubes in areas dominated by C. pseudogracilis, which itself survived in tubes in such areas. However, both C. pseudogracilis and Gammarus spp. survived equally well in tubes in areas dominated by Gammarus spp. Physicochemical regime thus limits the movement of Gammarus spp. into C. pseudogracilis areas, but some other factor excludes C. pseudogracilis from Gammarus spp. areas. Since previous laboratory experiments showed high predation rates of Gammarus spp. on C. pseudogracilis, we propose that predation by the former causes exclusion of the latter. Hence, presumed effects of physico-chemical regime on macroinvertebrate presence/abundance may often require experimental field testing and appreciation of alternative explanations.

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Whilst the decision regarding defibrillator implantation in a patient with a familial sudden cardiac death syndrome is likely to be most significant for any particular individual, the clinical decision-making process itself is complex and requires interpretation and extrapolation of information from a number of different sources. This document provides recommendations for adult patients with the congenital Long QT syndromes, Brugada syndrome, catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. Although these specific conditions differ in terms of clinical features and prognosis, it is possible and logical to take an approach to determining a threshold for implantable cardioveter-defibrillator implantation that is common to all of the familial sudden cardiac death syndromes based on estimates of absolute risk of sudden death. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. © The Author 2010.

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Age–depth models form the backbone of most palaeoenvironmental studies. However, procedures for constructing chronologies vary between studies, they are usually not explained sufficiently, and some are inadequate for handling calibrated radiocarbon dates. An alternative method based on importance sampling through calibrated dates is proposed. Dedicated R code is presented which works with calibrated radiocarbon as well as other dates, and provides a simple, systematic, transparent, documented and customizable alternative. The code automatically produces age–depth models, enabling exploration of the impacts of different assumptions (e.g., model type, hiatuses, age offsets, outliers, and extrapolation).

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A many-body theory approach to the calculation of gamma spectra of positron annihilation on many-electron atoms is developed. We evaluate the first-order correlation correction to the annihilation vertex and perform numerical calculations for the noble gas atoms. Extrapolation with respect to the maximal orbital momentum of the intermediate electron and positron states is used to achieve convergence. The inclusion of correlation corrections improves agreement with experimental gamma spectra.

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The spontaneous formation of the neurotoxic carcinogen acrylamide in a wide range of cooked foods has recently been discovered, leading to dietary exposure estimates of 30.8 mu g of acrylamide day(-1) for an average 77 kg human male. This is considerably higher than the European legal limit of acrylamide in drinking water, which is approximately 0.2 mu g of acrylamide person(-1) day(-1). A recent study of 62,573 women over 11.3 years has observed an increased risk of postmenopausal endometrial and ovarian cancer (but not breast cancer) with increasing dietary acrylamide intake, demonstrating significant risk to human health. As individual acrylamide exposure is affected by dietary habits, cooking methods, and cigarette consumption; accurate extrapolation from estimated dietary exposure is extremely difficult. Quantifying biomarkers of acrylamide exposure therefore remains the most effective means of rapidly determining individual exposure to acrylamide, and correlating exposure with lifestyle choices. Current methodologies for the analysis of blood biomarkers of acrylamide are focused on expensive, slower chromatographic techniques such as GC and LC coupled to mass spectrometry. This paper describes the first successful development of two monoclonal antibodies specific to acrylamide-adducted haemoglobin (IC50 of 94 ng ml(-1) and 198 ng ml(-1)), that are suitable for use in a high-throughput biomarker immunoassay to determine individual acrylamide exposure. Further development of acrylamide-haemoglobin standards with defined levels of acrylamide adduction will enable a fully quantitative assay, and allow sensitivity comparisons with alternative chromatographic methods of analysis. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

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Constipation is one of the most common digestive complaints. It is a symptom, not a disease. The subjectivity that this involves means that assessments of clinical epidemiology, socioeconomic costs and pharmacotherapy are difficult, since there is no definition of 'normal' bowel habit. Although constipation can affect all ages, the problem increases with age, and is of particular concern for those who are frail and in long term care. Cultural influences may affect the prevalence in older people. Drug therapy of constipation cannot be considered in isolation, since there are issues in the prevention of constipation and the principles of good management that also apply. Furthermore, some consideration of the pathophysiology and diagnosis is important. This is because a number of remediable causes can be identified, and the diagnostic process involves patient education, which in turn may be effective in reducing costs. It is the complaint of constipation which leads either to self-medication or to consultation with the medical profession. Both of these courses of action have a significant influence on utilisation of laxatives (cathartics), obtained both over-the-counter and by prescription. Although there are a large number of laxative preparations available, therapy has changed little in half a century. Costs may vary considerably, and with such a significant problem there is a need for comparative studies. However, study methodologies are difficult, and a significant placebo response may be found. Education and preventive measures have been shown to reduce laxative use and costs in institutions. Unfortunately, there are few comparative studies of individual laxatives and even fewer cost-effectiveness studies. Those that there are have been based in institutions, and so extrapolation to other situations may be difficult. In general, little attention is given to constipation. It is, however, an area with significant resource implications in which education and preventive measures have been shown to be beneficial. Even so, there is still a need for good comparative studies, particularly where cost effectiveness is concerned.