Utility in Willingness to Pay Space: A Tool to Address Confounding Random Scale Effects in Destination Choice to the Alps

We compare two approaches for estimating the distribution of consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) in discrete choice models. The usual procedure is to estimate the distribution of the utility coefficients and then derive the distribution of WTP, which is the ratio of coefficients. The alternative is to estimate the distribution of WTP directly. We apply both approaches to data on site choice in the Alps. We find that the alternative approach fits the data better, reduces the incidence of exceedingly large estimated WTP values, and provides the analyst with greater control in specifying and testing the distribution of WTP. © 2008 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

It's not that I don't care, I just don't care very much: confounding between attribute non-attendance and taste heterogeneity

With the growing interest in the topic of attribute non-attendance, there is now widespread use of latent class (LC) structures aimed at capturing such behaviour, across a number of different fields. Specifically, these studies rely on a confirmatory LC model, using two separate values for each coefficient, one of which is fixed to zero while the other is estimated, and then use the obtained class probabilities as an indication of the degree of attribute non-attendance. In the present paper, we argue that this approach is in fact misguided, and that the results are likely to be affected by confounding with regular taste heterogeneity. We contrast the confirmatory model with an exploratory LC structure in which the values in both classes are estimated. We also put forward a combined latent class mixed logit model (LC-MMNL) which allows jointly for attribute non-attendance and for continuous taste heterogeneity. Across three separate case studies, the exploratory LC model clearly rejects the confirmatory LC approach and suggests that rates of non-attendance may be much lower than what is suggested by the standard model, or even zero. The combined LC-MMNL model similarly produces significant improvements in model fit, along with substantial reductions in the implied rate of attribute non-attendance, in some cases even eliminating the phenomena across the sample population. Our results thus call for a reappraisal of the large body of recent work that has implied high rates of attribute non-attendance for some attributes. Finally, we also highlight a number of general issues with attribute non-attendance, in particular relating to the computation of willingness to pay measures.

LD Score regression distinguishes confounding from polygenicity in genome-wide association studies

Both polygenicity (many small genetic effects) and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification, can yield an inflated distribution of test statistics in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, current methods cannot distinguish between inflation from a true polygenic signal and bias. We have developed an approach, LD Score regression, that quantifies the contribution of each by examining the relationship between test statistics and linkage disequilibrium (LD). The LD Score regression intercept can be used to estimate a more powerful and accurate correction factor than genomic control. We find strong evidence that polygenicity accounts for the majority of the inflation in test statistics in many GWAS of large sample size.

Do Total and High Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Triglycerides Act Independently in the Prediction of Ischemic Heart Disease? Ten-Year Follow-Up of Caerphilly and Speedwell Cohorts

Several studies have suggested that men with raised plasma triglycerides (TGs) in combination with adverse levels of other lipids may be at special risk of subsequent ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined the independent and combined effects of plasma lipids at 10 years of follow-up. We measured fasting TGs, total cholesterol (TC), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) in 4362 men (aged 45 to 63 years) from 2 study populations and reexamined them at intervals during a 10-year follow-up. Major IHD events (death from IHD, clinical myocardial infarction, or ECG-defined myocardial infarction) were recorded. Five hundred thirty-three major IHD events occurred. All 3 lipids were strongly and independently predictive of IHD after 10 years of follow-up. Subjects were then divided into 27 groups (ie, 33) by the tertiles of TGs, TC, and HDLC. The number of events observed in each group was compared with that predicted by a logistic regression model, which included terms for the 3 lipids (without interactions) and potential confounding variables. The incidence of IHD was 22.6% in the group with the lipid risk factor combination with the highest expected risk (high TGs, high TC, and low HDLC) and 4.7% in the group with the lowest expected risk (P

A Multicenter, Randomised Open Study of Early Corticosteroid Treatment (OSECT) in Preterm Infants With Respiratory Illness: Comparison of Early and Late Treatment and of Dexamethasone and Inhaled Budesonide

AIM: To compare early (15 days) steroid therapy and dexamethasone with inhaled budesonide in very preterm infants at risk of developing chronic lung disease. METHODS: Five hundred seventy infants from 47 neonatal intensive care units were enrolled. Criteria for enrollment included gestational age 30%. Infants were randomly allocated to 1 of 4 treatment groups in a factorial design: early (15 days) dexamethasone, and delayed selective budesonide. Dexamethasone was given in a tapering course beginning with 0.50 mg/kg/day in 2 divided doses for 3 days reducing by half until 12 days of therapy had elapsed. Budesonide was administered by metered dose inhaler and a spacing chamber in a dose of 400 microg/kg twice daily for 12 days. Delayed selective treatment was started if infants needed mechanical ventilation and >30% oxygen for >15 days. The factorial design allowed 2 major comparisons: early versus late treatment and systemic dexamethasone versus inhaled budesonide. The primary outcome was death or oxygen dependency at 36 weeks and analysis was on an intention-to-treat basis. Secondary outcome measures included death or major cerebral abnormality, duration of oxygen treatment, and complications of prematurity. Adverse effects were also monitored daily. RESULTS: There were no significant differences among the groups for the primary outcome. Early steroid treatment was associated with a lower primary outcome rate (odds ratio [OR]: 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61,1.18) but even after adjustment for confounding variables the difference remained nonsignificant. Dexamethasone-treated infants also had a lower primary outcome rate (OR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.62,1.20) but again this difference remained not significant after adjustment. For death before discharge, dexamethasone and early treatment had worse outcomes than budesonide and delayed selective treatment (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 0.93,2.16; OR: 1.51; 95% CI: 0.99,2.30 after adjustment, respectively) with the results not quite reaching significance. Duration of supplementary oxygen was shorter in the early dexamethasone group (median: 31 days vs 40-44 days). Early dexamethasone was also associated with increased weight loss during the first 12 days of treatment (52 g vs 3 g) compared with early budesonide, but over 30 days there was no difference. In the early dexamethasone group, there was a reduced incidence of persistent ductus arteriosus (34% vs 52%-59%) and an increased risk of hyperglycemia (55% vs 29%-34%) compared with the other 3 groups. Dexamethasone was associated with an increased risk of hypertension and gastrointestinal problems compared with budesonide but only the former attained significance. CONCLUSIONS: Infants given early treatment and dexamethasone therapy had improved survival without chronic lung disease at 36 weeks compared with those given delayed selective treatment and inhaled budesonide, respectively, but results for survival to discharge were in the opposite direction; however, none of these findings attained statistical significance. Early dexamethasone treatment reduced the risk of persistent ductus arteriosus. Inhaled budesonide may be safer than dexamethasone, but there is no clear evidence that it is more or less effective

Moderately elevated plasma homocysteine, MTHFR genotype and risk for stroke, vascular dementia and alzheimer's disease in northern ireland

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Elevated plasma homocysteine level has been associated with increased risk for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. Variation in the levels of this amino acid has been shown to be due to nutritional status and methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) genotype. METHODS: Under a case-control design we compared fasting levels of homocysteine and MTHFR genotypes in groups of subjects consisting of stroke, vascular dementia (VaD), and Alzheimer disease patients and normal controls from Northern Ireland. RESULTS: A significant increase in plasma homocysteine was observed in all 3 disease groups compared with controls. This remained significant after allowance for confounding factors (age, sex, hypertension, cholesterol, smoking, creatinine, and nutritional measures). MTHFR genotype was not found to influence homocysteine levels, although the T allele was found to increase risk for VaD and perhaps dementia after stroke. CONCLUSIONS: We report that moderately high plasma levels of homocysteine are associated with stroke, VaD, and Alzheimer disease. This is not due to vascular risk factors, nutritional status, or MTHFR genotype

Limitations in using peptide drugs to characterize calcitonin gene-related peptide receptors

Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) is an endogenous vasodilator peptide that produces its effects by activation of CGRP(1) and CGRP(2) receptor subtypes, These receptor subtypes are characterized in functional studies using the agonist Cys(Acm)(2,7)-human-alpha-calcitonin gene-related peptide (Cys(ACM)(2,7)-h-alpha-CGRP), which activates CGRP(2) receptors, and the antagonist h-alpha CGRP(8-37) which has a high affinity for CGRP, receptors and a low affinity for CGRP(2) receptors. Our aim was to identify factors that may limit the use of these drugs to characterize CGRP receptor subtypes. We studied CGRP receptors using isolated ring segments of pig coronary and basilar arteries studied in vitro. The affinity of the antagonist h-alpha CGRP(8-37) for inhibiting h-alpha CGRP-induced relaxation of coronary arteries (log(10) of the antagonist equilibrium dissociation constant = -5.33) was determined from Schild plots that had steep slopes. Therefore, we used capsaicin to investigate the role of endogenous CGRP in confounding affinity measurements for h-alpha CGRP(8-37). After capsaicin treatment, the slopes of the Schild plots were not different from one, and a higher affinity of h-CGRP(8-37) in blocking relaxation was obtained (log(10) of the antagonist equilibrium dissociation constant = -6.01). We also investigated the agonist activity of the putative CGRP, receptor selective agonist Cys(Acm)(2,7)-h-alpha-CGRP. We found that maximal relaxation of coronary arteries caused by Cys(Acm)(2,7)-h-alpha CGRP was dependent upon the level of contractile tone induced by KCI. We also determined the K-A for Cys(Acm)(2,7)-h-alpha CGRP and found that the K-A (817 nM) was not significantly different from the EC50 (503 nM) for this drug in causing relaxation, indicating that Cys(Acm)(2,7)-h-alpha CGRP is a partial agonist. Because experimental conditions affect the actions of h-CGRP(8-37) and Cys(Acm)(2,7)-h-alpha CGRP, the conditions must be carefully controlled to reliably identify CGRP receptor subtypes.

No association between hOGG1, XRCC1, and XPD polymorphisms and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's Esophagus, or esophageal adenocarcinoma: Results from the factors influencing the Barrett's adenocarcinoma relationship case-control study

Reflux of gastric contents can lead to development of reflux esophagitis and Barrett's esophagus. Barrett's esophagus is a risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Damage to DNA may lead to carcinogenesis but is repaired through activation of pathways involving polymorphic enzymes, including human 8-oxoguanine glycosylase 1 (hOGG1), X-ray repair cross-complementing 1 (XRCC1), and xeroderma pigmentosum group D (XPD). Of the single nucleotide polymorphisms identified in these genes, hOGG1 Ser 326Cys, XRCC1 Arg 399Gln, and XPD Lys 751Gln are particularly common in Caucasians and have been associated with lower DNA repair capacity. Small studies have reported associations with XPD Lys 751Gln and esophageal adenocarcinoma. XRCC1 Arg 399Gln has been linked to Barrett's esophagus and reflux esophagitis. In a population-based case-control study, we examined associations of the hOGG1 Ser 326Cys, XRCC1 Arg 399Gln, and XPD Lys 751Gln polymorphisms with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, and reflux esophagitis. Genomic DNA was extracted from blood samples collected from cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 210), Barrett's esophagus (n = 212), reflux esophagitis (n = 230), and normal population controls frequency matched for age and sex (n = 248). Polymorphisms were genotyped using Taq-Man allelic discrimination assays. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounding factors. There were no statistically significant associations between these polymorphisms and risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, or reflux esophagitis.

Cyclooxygenase-2 and inducible nitric oxide synthase gene polymorphisms and risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's Esophagus, and esophageal adenocarcinoma

The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma has increased in recent years, and Barrett's esophagus is a recognized risk factor. Gastroesophageal reflux of acid and/or bile is linked to these conditions and to reflux esophagitis. Inflammatory disorders can lead to carcinogenesis through activation of "prosurvival genes," including cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS). Increased expression of these enzymes has been found in esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, and reflux esophagitis. Polymorphic variants in COX-2 and iNOS genes may be modifiers of risk of these conditions. In a population-based case-control study, we examined associations of the COX-2 8473 T>C and iNOS Ser 608 Leu (C>T) polymorphisms with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma, Barrett's esophagus, and reflux esophagitis. Genomic DNA was extracted from blood samples collected from cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma (n = 210), Barrett's esophagus (n = 212), and reflux esophagitis (n = 230) and normal population controls frequency matched for age and sex (n = 248). Polymorphisms were genotyped using TaqMan allelic discrimination assays. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were obtained from logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounding factors. The presence of at least one COX-2 8473 C allele was associated with a significantly increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (adjusted odds ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.40). There was no significant association between this polymorphism and risk of Barrett's esophagus or reflux esophagitis or between the iNOS Ser 608 Leu polymorphism and risk of these esophageal conditions. Our study suggests that the COX-2 8473 C allele is a potential genetic marker for susceptibility to esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Is hyperfiltration associated with the future risk of developing diabetic nephropathy? A meta-analysis.

Aims/hypothesis Glomerular hyperfiltration is a well established phenomenon occurring early in some patients with type 1 diabetes. However, there is no consistent answer regarding whether hyperfiltration predicts later development of nephropathy. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies that compared the risk of developing diabetic nephropathy in patients with and without glomerular hyperfiltration and also explored the impact of baseline GFR.

Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out. Cohort studies in type 1 diabetic participants were included if they contained data on the development of incipient or overt nephropathy with baseline measurement
of GFR and presence or absence of hyperfiltration.

Results We included ten cohort studies following 780 patients. After a study median follow-up of 11.2 years, 130 patients had developed nephropathy. Using a random effects model, the pooled odds of progression to a minimum
of microalbuminuria in patients with hyperfiltration was 2.71 (95% CI 1.20–6.11) times that of patients with normofiltration. There was moderate heterogeneity (heterogeneity test p=0.05, measure of degree of inconsistency=48%) and some evidence of funnel plot asymmetry, possibly due to publication bias. The pooled weighted mean difference in baseline GFR was 13.8 ml min-1 1.73 m-2 (95% CI 5.0–22.7) greater in the group progressing to nephropathy than in those not progressing (heterogeneity test p<0.01).

Conclusions/interpretation In published studies, individuals with glomerular hyperfiltration were at increased risk of progression to diabetic nephropathy using study level data. Further larger studies are required to explore this relationship and the role of potential confounding variables.

Contribution of 30 Biomarkers to 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in 2 population cohorts: The MONICA, risk, genetics, archiving and monograph (MORGAM) biomarker project

Background— Cardiovascular risk estimation by novel biomarkers needs assessment in disease-free population cohorts, followed up for incident cardiovascular events, assaying the serum and plasma archived at baseline. We report results from 2 cohorts in such a continuing study.
Methods and Results— Thirty novel biomarkers from different pathophysiological pathways were evaluated in 7915 men and women of the FINRISK97 population cohort with 538 incident cardiovascular events at 10 years (fatal or nonfatal coronary or stroke events), from which a biomarker score was developed and then validated in the 2551 men of the Belfast Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction (PRIME) cohort (260 events). No single biomarker consistently improved risk estimation in FINRISK97 men and FINRISK97 women and the Belfast PRIME Men cohort after allowing for confounding factors; however, the strongest associations (with hazard ratio per SD in FINRISK97 men) were found for N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (1.23), C-reactive protein (1.23), B-type natriuretic peptide (1.19), and sensitive troponin I (1.18). A biomarker score was developed from the FINRISK97 cohort with the use of regression coefficients and lasso methods, with selection of troponin I, C-reactive protein, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Adding this score to a conventional risk factor model in the Belfast PRIME Men cohort validated it by improved c-statistics (P=0.004) and integrated discrimination (P<0.0001) and led to significant reclassification of individuals into risk categories (P=0.0008).
Conclusions— The addition of a biomarker score including N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, C-reactive protein, and sensitive troponin I to a conventional risk model improved 10-year risk estimation for cardiovascular events in 2 middle-aged European populations. Further validation is needed in other populations and age groups.

Cancer incidence and mortality in patients with insulin-treated diabetes: a UK cohort study

Raised risks of several cancers have been found in patients with type II diabetes, but there are few data on cancer risk in type I diabetes. We conducted a cohort study of 28 900 UK patients with insulin-treated diabetes followed for 520 517 person-years, and compared their cancer incidence and mortality with national expectations. To analyse by diabetes type, we examined risks separately in 23 834 patients diagnosed with diabetes under the age of 30 years, who will almost all have had type I diabetes, and 5066 patients diagnosed at ages 30 - 49 years, who probably mainly had type II. Relative risks of cancer overall were close to unity, but ovarian cancer risk was highly significantly raised in patients with diabetes diagnosed under age 30 years ( standardised incidence ratio ( SIR) = 2.14; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22 - 3.48; standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 2.90; 95% CI 1.45 - 5.19), with greatest risks for those with diabetes diagnosed at ages 10 - 19 years. Risks of cancer at other major sites were not substantially raised for type I patients. The excesses of obesity- and alcohol-related cancers in type II diabetes may be due to confounding rather than diabetes per se.

Infections and vaccinations as risk factors for childhood type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus: a multicentre case-control investigation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine if vaccinations and infections are associated with the subsequent risk of Type I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus in childhood. METHOD: Seven centres in Europe with access to population-based registers of children with Type I diabetes diagnosed under 15 years of age participated in a case-control study of environmental risk factors. Control children were chosen at random in each centre either from population registers or from schools and policlinics. Data on maternal and neonatal infections, common childhood infections and vaccinations were obtained for 900 cases and 2302 control children from hospital and clinic records and from parental responses to a questionnaire or interview. RESULTS: Infections early in the child's life noted in the hospital record were found to be associated with an increased risk of diabetes, although the odds ratio of 1.61 (95% confidence limits 1.11, 2.33) was significant only after adjustment for confounding variables. None of the common childhood infectious diseases was found to be associated with diabetes and neither was there evidence that any common childhood vaccination modified the risk of diabetes. Pre-school day-care attendance, a proxy measure for total infectious disease exposure in early childhood, was found, however, to be inversely associated with diabetes, with a pooled odds ratio of 0.59 (95% confidence limits 0.46, 0.76) after adjustment for confounding variables. CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: It seems likely that the explanation for these contrasting findings of an increased risk associated with perinatal infections coupled with a protective effect of pre-school day care lies in the age-dependent modifying influence of infections on the developing immune system.

Childhood Trauma and Hippocampal and Amygdalar Volumes in First-Episode Psychosis

Objective: A history of childhood trauma is common in individuals who later develop psychosis. Similar neuroanatomical abnormalities are observed in people who have been exposed to childhood trauma and people with psychosis. However, the relationship between childhood trauma and such abnormalities in psychosis has not been investigated. This study aimed to explore the association between the experience of childhood trauma and hippocampal and amygdalar volumes in a first-episode psychosis (FEP) population. Methods: The study employed an observational retrospective design. Twenty-one individuals, who had previously undergone magnetic resonance imaging procedures as part of the longitudinal Northern Ireland First-Episode Psychosis Study, completed measures assessing traumatic experiences and were included in the analysis. Data were subject to correlation analyses (rand rob). Potential confounding variables (age at FEP and delay to scan from recruitment) were selected a priori for inclusion in multiple regression analyses. Results: There was a high prevalence of lifetime (95%) and childhood (76%) trauma in the sample. The experience of childhood trauma was a significant predictor of left hippocampal volume, although age at FEP also significantly contributed to this model. There was no significant association between predictor variables and right hippocampal volume. The experience of childhood trauma was a significant predictor of right and total amygdalar volumes and the hippocampal/amygdalar complex volume as a whole. Conclusions: The findings indicate that childhood trauma is associated with neuroanatomical measures in FEP. Future research controlling for childhood traumatic experiences may contribute to explaining brain morphology in people with psychosis.