A numerical approach to C-14 wiggle-match dating of organic deposits: best fits and confidence intervals

14C wiggle-match dating (WMD) of peat deposits uses the non-linear relationship between 14C age and calendar age to match the shape of a sequence of closely spaced peat 14C dates with the 14C calibration curve. A numerical approach to WMD enables the quantitative assessment of various possible wiggle-match solutions and of calendar year confidence intervals for sequences of 14C dates. We assess the assumptions, advantages, and limitations of the method. Several case-studies show that WMD results in more precise chronologies than when individual 14C dates are calibrated. WMD is most successful during periods with major excursions in the 14C calibration curve (e.g., in one case WMD could narrow down confidence intervals from 230 to 36 yr).

UN 2006 Climate Change Conference: a confidence building step?

An analysis of the UN 2006 COP.

Primary science teacher confidence revisited: ten years on

Background

Policing for peace in Northern Ireland: Change, conflict and community confidence

The fundamental change in policing that began in 2001 was a critical part of the Northern Ireland peace process. Seventy years after its establishment the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) remained distrusted and unrepresentative of the Catholic – nationalist community. This book explores how policing changed and the significant contribution that overhaul made to the most successful conflict transformation process in recent decades. It looks at policing from an organizational perspective and focuses on leadership, strategy and culture as it traces the journey from RUC to PSNI. In this way it reflects the views of many key figures inside the organization and of key political decision makers outside of it. This book will be of tremendous interest to those seeking to explore the underlying dynamics of one of the most radical and challenging change processes in recent history and is a must read for anyone interested in the Northern Irish peace process.

Mass media and polarisation processes in the bounded confidence model of opinion dynamics

This paper presents a social simulation in which we add an additional layer of mass media communication to the social network 'bounded confidence' model of Deffuant et al (2000). A population of agents on a lattice with continuous opinions and bounded confidence adjust their opinions on the basis of binary social network interactions between neighbours or communication with a fixed opinion. There are two mechanisms for interaction. 'Social interaction' occurs between neighbours on a lattice and 'mass communication' adjusts opinions based on an agent interacting with a fixed opinion. Two new variables are added, polarisation: the degree to which two mass media opinions differ, and broadcast ratio: the number of social interactions for each mass media communication. Four dynamical regimes are observed, fragmented, double extreme convergence, a state of persistent opinion exchange leading to single extreme convergence and a disordered state. Double extreme convergence is found where agents are less willing to change opinion and mass media communications are common or where there is moderate willingness to change opinion and a high frequency of mass media communications. Single extreme convergence is found where there is moderate willingness to change opinion and a lower frequency of mass media communication. A period of persistent opinion exchange precedes single extreme convergence, it is characterized by the formation of two opposing groups of opinion separated by a gradient of opinion exchange. With even very low frequencies of mass media communications this results in a move to central opinions followed by a global drift to one extreme as one of the opposing groups of opinion dominates. A similar pattern of findings is observed for Neumann and Moore neighbourhoods.

High confidence prediction of essential genes in burkholderia cenocepacia

Essential genes are absolutely required for the survival of an organism. The identification of essential genes, besides being one of the most fundamental questions in biology, is also of interest for the emerging science of synthetic biology and for the development of novel antimicrobials. New antimicrobial therapies are desperately needed to treat multidrug-resistant pathogens, such as members of the Burkholderia cepacia complex.

Assessing the determinants of public confidence in the police: A case study of a post-conflict community in Northern Ireland

Drawing upon original survey research this article seeks to identify the generative processes that influence perceptions of the police in the context of an inner-city neighbourhood in Northern Ireland that has been affected by increases in crime and disorder in the aftermath of the peace process. Conceptually we draw upon recent research from England and Wales that outlines confidence in the police in terms of instrumental and expressive dimensions. We apply this framework and consider whether it provides a useful template for understanding the post-conflict dynamics of police-community relations in our study area. Contrary to much received wisdom our analysis suggests that instrumental concerns about crime and illegal activity are a more influential predictor of attitudes to the police than expressive concerns with disorder and anti-social behaviour. Consequently our discussion points to the variance in local and national survey data and questions the degree to which the latter can usefully inform our understanding of trends and developments in discrete micro-spaces. Our conclusion outlines the potential policy implications for state policing practice in deprived urban spaces.

Confidence factor determination for performance evaluation of lighting pattern

In this paper the authors propose a new technique for determining a confidence factor applied to the performance prediction of individual luminaires within an overall pattern of luminaires. This work has relevance to any application where it is necessary to determine the performance of a lighting pattern e.g. street lighting, signal lighting etc. In this paper we apply our technique to a transportation application, namely, an airport landing lighting pattern. In the aviation industry it is imperative that the landing lighting pattern at individual airports performs according to standards. We have developed an automated technique which can be used to access the performance of luminaires within this pattern. We extend this work to also derive a confidence factor related to this prediction based on the quality of the data being utilised. ©2010 IEEE.