Model selection for prognostic time-to-event gene signature discovery with applications in early breast cancer data

Model selection between competing models is a key consideration in the discovery of prognostic multigene signatures. The use of appropriate statistical performance measures as well as verification of biological significance of the signatures is imperative to maximise the chance of external validation of the generated signatures. Current approaches in time-to-event studies often use only a single measure of performance in model selection, such as logrank test p-values, or dichotomise the follow-up times at some phase of the study to facilitate signature discovery. In this study we improve the prognostic signature discovery process through the application of the multivariate partial Cox model combined with the concordance index, hazard ratio of predictions, independence from available clinical covariates and biological enrichment as measures of signature performance. The proposed framework was applied to discover prognostic multigene signatures from early breast cancer data. The partial Cox model combined with the multiple performance measures were used in both guiding the selection of the optimal panel of prognostic genes and prediction of risk within cross validation without dichotomising the follow-up times at any stage. The signatures were successfully externally cross validated in independent breast cancer datasets, yielding a hazard ratio of 2.55 [1.44, 4.51] for the top ranking signature.

A feasibility study testing four hypotheses with phase II outcomes in advanced colorectal cancer (MRC FOCUS3): a model for randomised controlled trials in the era of personalised medicine?

Background: Molecular characteristics of cancer vary between individuals. In future, most trials will require assessment of biomarkers to allocate patients into enriched populations in which targeted therapies are more likely to be effective. The MRC FOCUS3 trial is a feasibility study to assess key elements in the planning of such studies.

Patients and methods: Patients with advanced colorectal cancer were registered from 24 centres between February 2010 and April 2011. With their consent, patients' tumour samples were analysed for KRAS/BRAF oncogene mutation status and topoisomerase 1 (topo-1) immunohistochemistry. Patients were then classified into one of four molecular strata; within each strata patients were randomised to one of two hypothesis-driven experimental therapies or a common control arm (FOLFIRI chemotherapy). A 4-stage suite of patient information sheets (PISs) was developed to avoid patient overload.

Results: A total of 332 patients were registered, 244 randomised. Among randomised patients, biomarker results were provided within 10 working days (w.d.) in 71%, 15 w.d. in 91% and 20 w.d. in 99%. DNA mutation analysis was 100% concordant between two laboratories. Over 90% of participants reported excellent understanding of all aspects of the trial. In this randomised phase II setting, omission of irinotecan in the low topo-1 group was associated with increased response rate and addition of cetuximab in the KRAS, BRAF wild-type cohort was associated with longer progression-free survival.

Conclusions: Patient samples can be collected and analysed within workable time frames and with reproducible mutation results. Complex multi-arm designs are acceptable to patients with good PIS. Randomisation within each cohort provides outcome data that can inform clinical practice.

Human mesenchymal stem cells reduce the severity of acute lung injury in a sheep model of bacterial pneumonia

Background Human bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem (stromal) cells (hMSCs) improve survival in mouse models of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and reduce pulmonary oedema in a perfused human lung preparation injured with Escherichia coli bacteria. We hypothesised that clinical grade hMSCs would reduce the severity of acute lung injury (ALI) and would be safe in a sheep model of ARDS.

Methods Adult sheep (30–40 kg) were surgically prepared. After 5 days of recovery, ALI was induced with cotton smoke insufflation, followed by instillation of live Pseudomonas aeruginosa (2.5×10¹¹ CFU) into both lungs under isoflurane anaesthesia. Following the injury, sheep were ventilated, resuscitated with lactated Ringer's solution and studied for 24 h. The sheep were randomly allocated to receive one of the following treatments intravenously over 1 h in one of the following groups: (1) control, PlasmaLyte A, n=8; (2) lower dose hMSCs, 5×10⁶ hMSCs/kg, n=7; and (3) higher-dose hMSCs, 10×10⁶ hMSCs/kg, n=4.

Results By 24 h, the PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio was significantly improved in both hMSC treatment groups compared with the control group (control group: PaO₂/FiO₂ of 97±15 mm Hg; lower dose: 288±55 mm Hg (p=0.003); higher dose: 327±2 mm Hg (p=0.003)). The median lung water content was lower in the higher-dose hMSC-treated group compared with the control group (higher dose: 5.0 g wet/g dry [IQR 4.9–5.8] vs control: 6.7 g wet/g dry [IQR 6.4–7.5] (p=0.01)). The hMSCs had no adverse effects.

Conclusions Human MSCs were well tolerated and improved oxygenation and decreased pulmonary oedema in a sheep model of severe ARDS.

Spitzer observations of the asteroid-comet transition object and potential spacecraft target 107P (4015) Wilson-Harrington

Context: Near-Earth asteroid-comet transition object 107P/ (4015) Wilson-Harrington is a possible target of the joint European Space Agency (ESA) and Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Marco Polo sample return mission. Physical studies of this object are relevant to this mission, and also to understanding its asteroidal or cometary nature. Aims: Our aim is to obtain significant new constraints on the surface thermal properties of this object. Methods: We present mid-infrared photometry in two filters (16 and 22 μm) obtained with NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope on February 12, 2007, and results from the application of the Near Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM). We obtained high S/N in two mid-IR bands allowing accurate measurements of its thermal emission. Results: We obtain a well constrained beaming parameter (η = 1.39±0.26) and obtain a diameter and geometric albedo of D = 3.46±0.32 km, and pV = 0.059±0.011. We also obtain similar results when we apply this best-fitting thermal model to single-band mid-IR photometry reported by Campins et al. (1995, P&SS, 43, 733), Kraemer et al. (2005, AJ, 130, 2363) and Reach et al. (2007, Icarus, 191, 298). Conclusions: The albedo of 4015 Wilson-Harrington is low, consistent with those of comet nuclei and primitive C-, P-, D-type asteorids. We establish a rough lower limit for the thermal inertia of W-H of 60 Jm-2s-0.5 K-1 when it is at r = 1 AU, which is slightly over the limit of 30 Jm-2 s-0.5 K-1 derived by Groussin et al. (2009, Icarus, 199, 568) for the thermal inertia of the nucleus of comet 22P/Kopff.

Cancer dormancy: a model of early dissemination and late cancer recurrence

Cancer dormancy is a stage in tumor progression in which residual disease remains occult and asymptomatic for a prolonged period of time. Dormant tumor cells can be present as one of the earliest stages in tumor development, as well as a stage in micrometastases, and/or minimal residual disease left after an apparently successful treatment of the primary tumor. The general mechanisms that regulate the transition of disseminated tumor cells that have lain dormant into a proliferative state remain largely unknown. However, regulation of the growth from dormant tumor cells may be explained in part through the interaction of the tumor cell with its microenvironment, limitations in the blood supply, or an active immune system. An understanding of the regulatory machinery of these processes is essential for identifying early cancer biomarkers and could provide a rationale for the development of novel agents to target dormant tumor cells. This review focuses on the different signaling models responsible for early cancer dissemination and tumor recurrence that are involved in dormancy pathways.

Applying the Transtheoretical Model to Physical Activity Behavior in Individuals With Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis

BACKGROUND: The transtheoretical model has been successful in promoting health behavior change in general and clinical populations. However, there is little knowledge about the application of the transtheoretical model to explain physical activity behavior in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis. The aim was to examine patterns of (1) physical activity and (2) mediators of behavior change (self-efficacy, decisional balance, and processes of change) across stages of change in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Fifty-five subjects with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (mean age ± SD = 63 ± 10 y) had physical activity assessed over 7 d using an accelerometer. Each component of the transtheoretical model was assessed using validated questionnaires. Subjects were divided into groups depending on stage of change: Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation; n = 10), Group 2 (preparation; n = 20), and Group 3 (action and maintenance; n = 25). Statistical analyses included one-way analysis of variance and Tukey-Kramer post hoc tests.

RESULTS: Physical activity variables were significantly (P < .05) higher in Group 3 (action and maintenance) compared with Group 2 (preparation) and Group 1 (pre-contemplation and contemplation). For self-efficacy, there were no significant differences between groups for mean scores (P = .14). Decisional balance cons (barriers to being physically active) were significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .032). For processes of change, substituting alternatives (substituting inactive options for active options) was significantly higher in Group 3 versus Group 1 (P = .01), and enlisting social support (seeking out social support to increase and maintain physical activity) was significantly lower in Group 3 versus Group 2 (P = .038).

CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of physical activity across stages of change is consistent with the theoretical predictions of the transtheoretical model. Constructs of the transtheoretical model that appear to be important at different stages of change include decisional balance cons, substituting alternatives, and enlisting social support. This study provides support to explore transtheoretical model-based physical activity interventions in individuals with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis.

Multiple source quantum well model of porous silicon light emission

Based on photoluminescence, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and atomic force microscopy results, a new light emitting model for porous silicon (multiple source quantum well model) is proposed.