Biostratigraphic Evidence Relating to the Age-Old Question of Hannibal's Invasion of Italy, I: History and Geological Reconstruction

Controversy over the alpine route that Hannibal of Carthage followed from the Rhône Basin into Italia has raged amongst classicists and ancient historians for over two millennia. The motivation for identifying the route taken by the Punic Army through the Alps lies in its potential for identifying sites of historical archaeological significance and for the resolution of one of history's most enduring quandaries. Here, we present stratigraphic, geochemical and microbiological evidence recovered from an alluvial floodplain mire located below the Col de la Traversette (~3000 m asl-above sea level) on the French/Italian border that potentially identifies the invasion route as the one originally proposed by Sir Gavin de Beer (de Beer 1974). The dated layer is termed the MAD bed (mass animal deposition) based on disrupted bedding, greatly increased organic carbon and key/specialized biological components/compounds, the latter reported in Part II of this paper. We propose that the highly abnormal churned up (bioturbated) bed was contaminated by the passage of Hannibal's animals, possibly thousands, feeding and watering at the site, during the early stage of Hannibal's invasion of Italia (218 bc).

Biostratigraphic Evidence Relating to the Age-Old Question of Hannibal's Invasion of Italy, II: Chemical Biomarkers and Microbial Signatures

As discussed in Part I, a large accumulation of mammalian faeces at the mire site in the upper Guil Valley near Mt. Viso, dated to 2168cal ¹⁴C yr., provides the first evidence of the passage of substantial but indeterminate numbers of mammals within the time frame of the Punic invasion of Italia. Specialized organic biomarkers bound up in a highly convoluted and bioturbated bed constitute an unusual anomaly in a histosol comprised of fibric and hemist horizons that are usually expected to display horizontal bedding. The presence of deoxycholic acid and ethylcoprostanol derived from faecal matter, coupled with high relative numbers of Clostridia 16S rRNA genes, suggests a substantial accumulation of mammalian faeces at the site over 2000years ago. The results reported here constitute the first chemical and biological evidence of the passage of large numbers of mammals, possibly indicating the route of the Hannibalic army at this time. Combined with the geological analysis reported in Part I, these data provide a background supporting the need for further historical archaeological exploration in this area.

Politics and Literary Prizes:A Case Study of Spanish America and the Premio Cervantes

The Premio Cervantes, one of the most prestigious prizes awarded for literature in the Spanish language, was established in 1976 as Spain negotiated the Transition to democracy in the post-Franco era. This article examines the context in which the prize was created and subsequently used to negotiate inter-continental relations between Spain and Latin America. The article highlights the exchanges of economic, political and symbolic capital which took place between the Spanish State, its representative, the King of Spain, and winning Latin American authors. Significantly, the involvement of the Spanish State is shown to bring political capital into play in a way that commercial prizes do not. In so doing, the Premio Cervantes gives those formerly at the colonial periphery the opportunity to speak out and negotiate the terms of a new kind of relationship with the former colonial center.

Using the hidden Markov model to capture quality of care in Lombardy geriatric wards

Quality of care is an important aspect of healthcare monitoring, which is used to ensure that the healthcare system is delivering care of the highest standard. With populations growing older there is an increased urgency in making sure that the healthcare delivered is of the highest standard. Healthcare providers are under increased pressure to ensure that this is the case with public and government demand expecting a healthcare system of the highest quality. Modelling quality of care is difficult to measure due to the many ways of defining it. This paper introduces a potential model which could be used to take quality of care into account when modelling length of stay. The Coxian phase-type distribution is used to model length of stay and the associated quality of care incorporated into the Coxian using a Hidden Markov model. Covariates are also introduced to determine their impact on the hidden level to find out what potentially can affect quality of care. This model is applied to geriatic patient data from the Lombardy region of Italy. The results obtained highlighted that bed numbers and the type of hospital (public or private) can have an effect on the quality of care delivered.

A Conditional Approach for Modelling Patient Re-admissions in Hospital using a mixture of Coxian phase-type distributions incorporating Bayes Theorem

The number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation in Europe is rising. With a greater proportion of elderly people in the population comes a greater demand for health services and, in particular, hospital care. Thus, with a growing number of elderly patients requiring hospitalisation competing with non-elderly patients for a fixed (and in some cases, decreasing) number of hospital beds, this results in much longer waiting times for patients, often with a less satisfactory hospital experience. However, if a better understanding of the recurring nature of elderly patient movements between the community and hospital can be developed, then it may be possible for alternative provisions of care in the community to be put in place and thus prevent readmission to hospital. The research in this paper aims to model the multiple patient transitions between hospital and community by utilising a mixture of conditional Coxian phase-type distributions that incorporates Bayes' theorem. For the purpose of demonstration, the results of a simulation study are presented and the model is applied to hospital readmission data from the Lombardy region of Italy.